PDA

View Full Version : Kevin Colbert Talks Draft Evaluations And Analytics



stillers4me
02-18-2016, 05:30 AM
I don’t know that it will change anything. I don’t know that there will be any difference in the end results. Perhaps there won’t be anything different in that regard—and even if there were, we would probably not be able to tell. But there will be at least one thing different this year as the Pittsburgh Steelers prepare to the 2016 NFL Draft..........

read more @ http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/02/kevin-colbert-talks-draft-evaluations-and-analytics/

teegre
02-18-2016, 06:05 AM
He's had his misses, but he's done very well.

For example, the Chargers went five drafts without drafting a Pro Bowler. In that same time period, the Steelers drafted three All Pros: Pouncey, AB, & Bell.

polamalubeast
02-18-2016, 06:40 AM
He's had his misses, but he's done very well.

For example, the Chargers went five drafts without drafting a Pro Bowler. In that same time period, the Steelers drafted three All Pros: Pouncey, AB, & Bell.

and Decastro.

And all of his players have been on the all-pro team too!

BigNastyDefense
02-18-2016, 11:39 AM
He's had misses, but not every first/second round pick is going to turn out to be a superstar.

There's a reason why they say that the draft is a crapshoot.

steelreserve
02-18-2016, 12:07 PM
Interior linemen that you draft in the first round SHOULD be Pro Bowl players. Bell was a super good choice, and Brown was probably our best draft pick in 20 years, if not ever. (Although I can't help but feel more than a little luck was involved with that one.)

Anyway, having a guy like this can't do anything but help. I think when you seat-of-the-pants it with all the league's fads of the day constantly coming and going (tall DBs, H-backs, the read option, dedicated slot receivers, nickel sub packages, rise and fall of the 3-4's popularity, WR-like TEs, nose tackle snap counts, the Wildcat), it's easy to lose track of what's really valuable and what's not, and make hipshooting decisions that look dumb or desperate in hindsight. So having cold hard numbers to bring you back to reality sometimes can be a good thing.

teegre
02-18-2016, 09:48 PM
Interior linemen that you draft in the first round SHOULD be Pro Bowl players.

Danny Watkins, James Carpenter, Kevin Zeitler, Jonathan Cooper, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker, Justin Pugh, Cam Earving, and Laken Tomlinson haven't gone to a Pro Bowl.

Mike Pouncey has been to a Pro Bowl.

David DeCastro, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, and Kyle Long have been an All Pros... (although, Long was drafted to play and does indeed play OT).

Lastly... Maurkice Pouncey is the only perennial All Pro: he has been an All Pro every single season, except for the two when he was injured.


SUMMATION:
DeCastro has been a very good pick; Pouncey is the best interior lineman pick in a long, long time.

In fact, when we add in the AB pick, the 2010 draft might be one of the best drafts ever made by the Steelers.

tube517
02-19-2016, 11:11 AM
I think the Steelers FO all had a collective orgasm when DeCastro was available. I'm no draft expert but in reading articles and this forum up until that pick, even I was shocked he was there

fansince'76
02-19-2016, 11:45 AM
Danny Watkins, James Carpenter, Kevin Zeitler, Jonathan Cooper, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker, Justin Pugh, Cam Earving, and Laken Tomlinson haven't gone to a Pro Bowl.

Mike Pouncey has been to a Pro Bowl.

David DeCastro, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, and Kyle Long have been an All Pros... (although, Long was drafted to play and does indeed play OT).

Lastly... Maurkice Pouncey is the only perennial All Pro: he has been an All Pro every single season, except for the two when he was injured.


SUMMATION:
DeCastro has been a very good pick; Pouncey is the best interior lineman pick in a long, long time.

In fact, when we add in the AB pick, the 2010 draft might be one of the best drafts ever made by the Steelers.

I miss DeCastro and Pouncey pulling for Bell (http://www.steelersdepot.com/2015/08/steelers-film-room-maurkice-pouncey-and-pin-pull/)...

steelreserve
02-19-2016, 01:37 PM
Danny Watkins, James Carpenter, Kevin Zeitler, Jonathan Cooper, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker, Justin Pugh, Cam Earving, and Laken Tomlinson haven't gone to a Pro Bowl.

Mike Pouncey has been to a Pro Bowl.

David DeCastro, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, and Kyle Long have been an All Pros... (although, Long was drafted to play and does indeed play OT).

Lastly... Maurkice Pouncey is the only perennial All Pro: he has been an All Pro every single season, except for the two when he was injured.


SUMMATION:
DeCastro has been a very good pick; Pouncey is the best interior lineman pick in a long, long time.

In fact, when we add in the AB pick, the 2010 draft might be one of the best drafts ever made by the Steelers.


Not saying they were bad picks, just that they are not the huge bonanza some people think from an overall cost/benefit standpoint.

Put it this way: Take an average center and replace him with an All-Pro center. Now take an average safety and replace him with an All-Pro safety. Which one has more overall impact on your team? (Hint: Look at how the offensive line performed with Wallace and Villanueva. Look at how it performed with Pouncey and DeCastro, but pre-Munchak. It's not the center.) Point is, you can have the best offensive lineman in the history of the game, and there is still a definite ceiling on how much impact one guy can have, more so than any other position on the field. Like a lottery ticket where the maximum prize is capped at $50 instead of $25,000. Still a win, just not a huge win.

Personally, I believe the determining factor on the offensive line is how bad the worst player is, not how good the best one is. You could have four great players and one who sucks, and guess what - your offensive line sucks.

As for it being one of the best drafts ever, I would agree, if you mean the best draft in the history of smoking crack. Here's what we got:

R1. Great player, only above-average value for the pick
R2. Complete bust
R3. Average player who only played for us for a short time, then became a star for another team
R4-5. Nobody who even got on the field as far as I know
R6. Backup RB who couldn't hack it as a starter
R6. Possibly the single best-value pick in Steelers history
R7. Guy who didn't even make the team


You want a good draft class, try 2002:

R1. Starting OL
R2. Average WR with the occasional big moment
R3. Starting safety
R4. Starting LB
R5. Very good role player RB
R6. bupkus
R7. Pro Bowl DE

That's three, maybe four key players on a championship team plus one who figured heavily in the championship game itself, and almost everybody contributed in some way. Versus two great players, one guy who was of limited use to us, and seven whiffs.

polamalubeast
02-19-2016, 01:39 PM
This is always a great draft when you pick 2 all-pro in a single draft!

Mexican Yinzer
02-19-2016, 03:40 PM
Interior linemen that you draft in the first round SHOULD be Pro Bowl players. Bell was a super good choice, and Brown was probably our best draft pick in 20 years, if not ever. (Although I can't help but feel more than a little luck was involved with that one.)

Anyway, having a guy like this can't do anything but help. I think when you seat-of-the-pants it with all the league's fads of the day constantly coming and going (tall DBs, H-backs, the read option, dedicated slot receivers, nickel sub packages, rise and fall of the 3-4's popularity, WR-like TEs, nose tackle snap counts, the Wildcat), it's easy to lose track of what's really valuable and what's not, and make hipshooting decisions that look dumb or desperate in hindsight. So having cold hard numbers to bring you back to reality sometimes can be a good thing.
What about Big Ben Roethlisberger???

Enviado desde mi E5506 mediante Tapatalk

tube517
02-19-2016, 04:22 PM
He's had his misses, but he's done very well.

For example, the Chargers went five drafts without drafting a Pro Bowler. In that same time period, the Steelers drafted three All Pros: Pouncey, AB, & Bell.

As far as top draft picks, 2003-05, pretty damn good.


Troy/Ben/Heath

2010-12 not bad either

Pouncey/Heyward/DeCastro

teegre
02-20-2016, 10:42 PM
Not saying they were bad picks, just that they are not the huge bonanza some people think from an overall cost/benefit standpoint.

Put it this way: Take an average center and replace him with an All-Pro center. Now take an average safety and replace him with an All-Pro safety. Which one has more overall impact on your team? (Hint: Look at how the offensive line performed with Wallace and Villanueva. Look at how it performed with Pouncey and DeCastro, but pre-Munchak. It's not the center.) Point is, you can have the best offensive lineman in the history of the game, and there is still a definite ceiling on how much impact one guy can have, more so than any other position on the field. Like a lottery ticket where the maximum prize is capped at $50 instead of $25,000. Still a win, just not a huge win.

Personally, I believe the determining factor on the offensive line is how bad the worst player is, not how good the best one is. You could have four great players and one who sucks, and guess what - your offensive line sucks.

As for it being one of the best drafts ever, I would agree, if you mean the best draft in the history of smoking crack. Here's what we got:

R1. Great player, only above-average value for the pick
R2. Complete bust
R3. Average player who only played for us for a short time, then became a star for another team
R4-5. Nobody who even got on the field as far as I know
R6. Backup RB who couldn't hack it as a starter
R6. Possibly the single best-value pick in Steelers history
R7. Guy who didn't even make the team


You want a good draft class, try 2002:

R1. Starting OL
R2. Average WR with the occasional big moment
R3. Starting safety
R4. Starting LB
R5. Very good role player RB
R6. bupkus
R7. Pro Bowl DE

That's three, maybe four key players on a championship team plus one who figured heavily in the championship game itself, and almost everybody contributed in some way. Versus two great players, one guy who was of limited use to us, and seven whiffs.

I think that you're undervaluing the importance of an O-line. Just ask Tom Brady.

I absolutely agree that 2002 was (IMO) the second best draft in Steelers history. 1974 was obviously #1. 2002 set the Steelers up for XL and XLIII.

2010 bright in the best offensive weapon that the Steelers have ever had (AB). Plus, a player who is an All Pro in every single season that he has played. That's two home runs in one draft.

2002 = the moneyball A's (lots of singles)
2010 = the Bash Brothers A's (two home run hitters)

steelreserve
02-21-2016, 02:04 AM
I think that you're undervaluing the importance of an O-line. Just ask Tom Brady.

I absolutely agree that 2002 was (IMO) the second best draft in Steelers history. 1974 was obviously #1. 2002 set the Steelers up for XL and XLIII.

2010 bright in the best offensive weapon that the Steelers have ever had (AB). Plus, a player who is an All Pro in every single season that he has played. That's two home runs in one draft.

2002 = the moneyball A's (lots of singles)
2010 = the Bash Brothers A's (two home run hitters)


I don't undervalue the importance of the O-Line, I just think it works differently. Like, it's not about having star players, it's more important to have all five players be above average. Star players are nice, but then you have to pay them like a star player at another position, so it quickly runs away from the value that a single offensive lineman can provide. I love Pouncey and all, but I don't think it's even possible for him to provide $10 million worth of value in a season.

I'm fully aware of how bad things are when you've got a crappy line; it wasn't too long ago that was us. I just don't think the solution is necessarily high draft picks turning into stars. The key to our line turning from a shitty sack machine with no running game into a solid unit wasn't Pouncey leading the way, it was Gilbert and Foster not sucking anymore, and Beachum developing into an acceptable tackle.

One or two second-rounders and some middle-round guys, plus the one lucky find, that's what you need. I certainly think you'd have more luck trying to find above-average interior linemen in the 4th and 5th round of the draft than above-average cornerbacks.

Anyway. The whole point ... the Pouncey pick was a "win," but I'm not throwing a party over it.