3rd Down Passing and the Myth of the Deep Ball

[Mojouw]

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/01/steelers-roethlisberger-not-bad-when-throwing-deep-on-3rd-and-short/

According to this article, the Steelers are really not that bad on passing on 3rd and short, and while the #'s for longer distances on 3rd downs look distressing at first, the author details how they really are not.

Maybe those few missed opportunities stick out in our heads, but it is nowhere near the problem it seemed.

[Psycho Ward 86]

interesting. we're definitely better at it than i thought. however, i still find it distressing that we feel the need to throw the ball 30+ yards downfield regardless of the down instead of taking a higher percentage throw that still provides good yardage gains at 15-20 yards instead. Ben has a rocket arm. We have great YAC receivers. i think the bread and butter of our offense should be meeting somewhere in the middle to utilize both but thats just my opinion. much of this also has to do with the fact that Ben would have led the league in interceptions if his numbers were prorated for a 16 game season. thats never acceptable

[polamalubeast]

I compare this year's season Roethlisberger with some seasons of Brett Favre.

Yes Roethlisberger has a lot of interception, but at the same time the offense has been very productive in the last eight games for most of the time.(255 points in 8 games,Who would have been on pace for 510 points, which would have been the best in the nfl.)

I not want to see him again the dink and dunk offense.

[Count Steeler]

What makes this offense great is that it can do everything. What is frustrating is that it lacks patience. They could have buried Baltimore had they just been patient. If Ben and Haley can stay patient and just take what the defense is giving in the beginning, get a lead, then they will be able to blow the roof off the game.

A defense can't defend everything against this offense. Take what it gives you, take the lead, get them in panic mode and then go nuts.

[SteelerFanInStl]

It's simply not needed on 3rd and short. Take the higher percentage short passes and extend the drive. Save the shots down field for 1st and 2nd down.

I'm not looking for dink and dunk but a low percentage pass on 3rd and a manageable distance doesn't make sense, especially when AB seems to be the only reliable one to catch them (yes, I know that he's dropped a few).

[ALLD]

It's simply not needed on 3rd and short. Take the higher percentage short passes and extend the drive. Save the shots down field for 1st and 2nd down.

I'm not looking for dink and dunk but a low percentage pass on 3rd and a manageable distance doesn't make sense, especially when AB seems to be the only reliable one to catch them (yes, I know that he's dropped a few).

Exactly. Do not risk killing the drive on 3rd and short with a high risk pass more than 25% of attempts unless there is no time on the clock. I almost expect Ben to throw a 30+ yd. pass into double coverage on 3rd and 1 half the time now. Sometimes I still expect a momentum killing, game changing Haleyball trick play in the 1st quarter.

[tube517]

I think the 2nd half of the Donkeys game showed how to be "patient" and have success. Ben was pretty much taking what they gave against the supposedly best defense and tearing them up.

[Psycho Ward 86]

I compare this year's season Roethlisberger with some seasons of Brett Favre.

Yes Roethlisberger has a lot of interception, but at the same time the offense has been very productive in the last eight games for most of the time.(255 points in 8 games,Who would have been on pace for 510 points, which would have been the best in the nfl.)

I not want to see him again the dink and dunk offense.

if i had a dollar for every brett favre comparison...

is anyone going to come up with a more detailed thought out argument to validate Ben's turnovers? look, even brett favre kept the interceptions down and the TD's waaay up during his best seasons. His TD to INT ratio during his MVP years:

1995: 38:13
1996: 39:13
1997: 35:16

and possibly his best season with the vikings: 2009: 33:7

he was at his WORST when he threw a lot of picks, not his best. look at the seasonal numbers, and look at the net results (playoffs, playoff wins, overall record, etc). people still act like this is Ben's best campaign or something. it has more to do with the O-line continuing to pull together, the continued development of our top 3 receivers, Deangelo ensuring our running game doesnt miss a beat than it does with Ben playing at his best.

Points are great, i get that. Unfortunately when you have one of the worst pass defenses in the league that insists upon playing a CB who is leading the league in missed tackles and being targeted more than any QB in the nfl, its not so great to give the ball back to your opponent.

Again, If Ben played in all 16 games, if his stats were prorated to a 16 game season, he would have a 26:20 TD to INT ratio. That is unacceptable for an elite QB in this day in age. This isnt the 70's anymore. If you're going to compare Ben this season to Brett Favre, pray tell, how did Favre's 20+ interception campaigns go for him, both personally, and for his team? yeah thats what i thought.

The most frustrating thing about his interceptions has been that the vast majority of them could have been easily avoided. some of those were just bizarre rookie interceptions that really dont appear to be caused by his injuries sustained throughout the season at all. Ben has avoided turning the ball over in only 2 games this season against horrible defenses in the 49ers and colts. when you're QB is offering at least one free turnover 5/6 times, thats not good no matter how many points your team scores.

One time. We had a dink and dunk offense literally one time in Ben's career and that was in 2012 when our O-line was still garbage and when the Rooney's were obviously looking for someone to protect Ben better. Now that we have an O-line we have no reservations about going back to that. I dont see how were in a situation where we have to fear going back to that.

[polamalubeast]

We can not just judge Roethlisberger this year on the TD / INT ratio.Unacceptable is a little strong word because for the rest, Ben has very good stats.I prefer the season of Roethlisberger this year than the season of Aaron Rodgers, even if his TD / INT ratio is much better.

I agree that the interceptions needs to stop, but the lack of TD pass, it's not a problem since the steelers have a lot of PPG and also rushing TD inside the red zone.

[steelreserve]

I don't really have a problem with the deep throws at any point. The ones on third down have been a good idea lots of the time; just a few more have clanged off of our receivers' hands for some reason. The thing that's really concerned me are the bad interceptions lately - back-breaking ones deep in our own territory. Most of them are completely forced, the kind of throws you don't normally see him making. The gambling I can live with, but THAT is just going to kill us if it keeps up. Hopefully it's just a passing thing.

[polamalubeast]

The 2001 season of Kurt Warner is a better comparison, since Warner won the MVP despite the fact he has had 22 interception, but as the steelers right now, the rams were better when they were aggressive and when you're aggressive, you have to live with the turnovers sometimes.

[Count Steeler]

I don't really have a problem with the deep throws at any point. The ones on third down have been a good idea lots of the time; just a few more have clanged off of our receivers' hands for some reason. The thing that's really concerned me are the bad interceptions lately - back-breaking ones deep in our own territory. Most of them are completely forced, the kind of throws you don't normally see him making. The gambling I can live with, but THAT is just going to kill us if it keeps up.Hopefully it's just a passing thing.


Hahaha. I see what you did there.

[Psycho Ward 86]

The 2001 season of Kurt Warner is a better comparison, since Warner won the MVP despite the fact he has had 22 interception, but as the steelers right now, the rams were better when they were aggressive and when you're aggressive, you have to live with the turnovers sometimes.

Kurt also had a higher completion %, higher YPA, and also has 10 more TD passes than Ben (if you prorate Ben's stats to a 16 game season). Kurt also didnt have the benefit of the Brady rule, defenseless receiver rule, and a vast increase in the protection of QB's that today's quarterbacks benefit from.

And in the superbowl of that season, lo and behold, Kurt's interceptions came back to bite him in the form of 10 points. Just as we have a shaky defense, the rams also had a bad defense that ensured that their team would pay dearly for the turnovers it commits. If this defense was able to show some consistency with keeping points off the board against decent decent offenses, i wouldnt be too concerned either. but thats not the case

[Psycho Ward 86]

We can not just judge Roethlisberger this year on the TD / INT ratio.Unacceptable is a little strong word because for the rest, Ben has very good stats.I prefer the season of Roethlisberger this year than the season of Aaron Rodgers, even if his TD / INT ratio is much better.

I agree that the interceptions needs to stop, but the lack of TD pass, it's not a problem since the steelers have a lot of PPG and also rushing TD inside the red zone.

im not. im just puzzled by the constant downplaying of the impact of interceptions on a team with a mostly bad defense. And Deangelo is banged up. So what now? The lack of TD passes are certainly a problem since thats most likely going to have to be our main source of points unless we plan on going through the playoffs on a field goal bonanza. not going to happen with this defense.

[polamalubeast]

The Rams had a very good defense in 2001.....It was in 2000 that the defense was very poor.The 2001 Rams lost the SB because they scored only 17 points and only 3 points after 3 quarter.

When you have a bad defense, a PUNT is like a turnover for me, because the field position is irrelevant when you have a great offense or bad defense.Of course, this is better a first down and Roethlisberger need to cut for the interception.

And when you have a good RB, it costs you TD pass when you're in the red zone.

[86WARD]

What makes this offense great is that it can do everything. What is frustrating is that it lacks patience. They could have buried Baltimore had they just been patient. If Ben and Haley can stay patient and just take what the defense is giving in the beginning, get a lead, then they will be able to blow the roof off the game.

A defense can't defend everything against this offense. Take what it gives you, take the lead, get them in panic mode and then go nuts.

It's kinda how the Browns game went...kinda...

[fansince'76]

Kurt also didnt have the benefit of the Brady rule...

Ben apparently doesn't either (and I say that only half-jokingly).

[zulater]

The Rams had a very good defense in 2001.....It was in 2000 that the defense was very poor.The 2001 Rams lost the SB because they scored only 17 points and only 3 points after 3 quarter.

When you have a bad defense, a PUNT is like a turnover for me, because the field position is irrelevant when you have a great offense or bad defense.Of course, this is better a first down and Roethlisberger need to cut for the interception.

And when you have a good RB, it costs you TD pass when you're in the red zone.

Exactly. This is something that people fail to see for some reason? Ben can take the team from their own 15 yard line to the opponents 1 passing the ball to get the large majority of the yards. Converting all forms of 3rd downs along the way. But because Ben ends up handing the ball off to a back to get the final yard or so it's as if he didn't have anything to do with it? As you've correctly pointed out on this thread it's not a matter of how you score, it's how much you score.

[Psycho Ward 86]

The Rams had a very good defense in 2001.....It was in 2000 that the defense was very poor.The 2001 Rams lost the SB because they scored only 17 points and only 3 points after 3 quarter.

When you have a bad defense, a PUNT is like a turnover for me, because the field position is irrelevant when you have a great offense or bad defense.Of course, this is better a first down and Roethlisberger need to cut for the interception.

And when you have a good RB, it costs you TD pass when you're in the red zone.

i stand corrected on the defense. But a punt is like a turnover if you have a bad defense? Field position is irrelevant? Really? Were running with that notion?

And sure, it costs Ben a TD if we run it in a lot (we did tie with 4 other teams to rank 6th in rushing TD's), but the turnovers are still out of control.

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Exactly. This is something that people fail to see for some reason? Ben can take the team from their own 15 yard line to the opponents 1 passing the ball to get the large majority of the yards. Converting all forms of 3rd downs along the way. But because Ben ends up handing the ball off to a back to get the final yard or so it's as if he didn't have anything to do with it? As you've correctly pointed out on this thread it's not a matter of how you score, it's how much you score.

i see it just fine. Ben gets credit for moving the ball down the field. He also gets credit for turning the ball over at a rate of 20 picks over the season. How you score, how much you score....how about not giving the other team extra chances to score?

People have already compared Ben's season to Brett Favre (coincidentally what turn out to be his really bad seasons) and Kurt Warner's MVP season. Really...

Just like that thread i made a long time ago, this is not to take away from Ben, simply that he COULD and SHOULD be better. A lot of the interceptions he threw this season were passes he was cerebral enough to not throw as Young Ben

[polamalubeast]

Firstly, the Steelers defense has not been bad this year, they are far from being bad like the Saints or the Giants.When I say that a punt is like a turnover when you have a bad defense is that often the defenses will give a TD, regardless of the field position!....The field position and time of possession is more important when you have a great defense and an average or bad offense.

But yes, for the interceptions, Ben has had too many interception in the last few weeks.

[Count Steeler]

Ben being Ben, I think he has been forcing the ball to Brown so that Brown could set a record. Now that the regular season is over, I'm hoping Ben goes back to his normal self that we saw in that 5 or 6 game stretch when the O was coming together.

[zulater]

i stand corrected on the defense. But a punt is like a turnover if you have a bad defense? Field position is irrelevant? Really? Were running with that notion?

And sure, it costs Ben a TD if we run it in a lot (we did tie with 4 other teams to rank 6th in rushing TD's), but the turnovers are still out of control.

- - - Updated - - -



i see it just fine. Ben gets credit for moving the ball down the field. He also gets credit for turning the ball over at a rate of 20 picks over the season. How you score, how much you score....how about not giving the other team extra chances to score?

People have already compared Ben's season to Brett Favre (coincidentally what turn out to be his really bad seasons) and Kurt Warner's MVP season. Really...

Just like that thread i made a long time ago, this is not to take away from Ben, simply that he COULD and SHOULD be better. A lot of the interceptions he threw this season were passes he was cerebral enough to not throw as Young Ben

It's not always on the qb. Sometimes the receiver runs the wrong route or has his route disrupted by a db. Remember on a lot of these throws Ben releases the ball before the receiver has made his cut. A precision offense requires throwing into a lot of tight windows. With the offense they run sometimes balls are going to be put at risk. Sometimes the other guy makes the play. They get paid too. In the end it comes down to this. Ben is never going to be Brady. Nor will he be Alex Smith, checking down to underneath routes 95% of the time. Personally I think he's a pretty damn good qb. Win or lose this week ( I predict we lose, the anticipated loss of DeAngelo will be too much to overcome imo) I'm glad Ben is the qb of the Steelers and hope he remains so for a few more good years. I just don't think this season was meant to be.

[Psycho Ward 86]

It's not always on the qb. Sometimes the receiver runs the wrong route or has his route disrupted by a db. Remember on a lot of these throws Ben releases the ball before the receiver has made his cut. A precision offense requires throwing into a lot of tight windows. With the offense they run sometimes balls are going to be put at risk. Sometimes the other guy makes the play. They get paid too. In the end it comes down to this. Ben is never going to be Brady. Nor will he be Alex Smith, checking down to underneath routes 95% of the time. Personally I think he's a pretty damn good qb. Win or lose this week ( I predict we lose, the anticipated loss of DeAngelo will be too much to overcome imo) I'm glad Ben is the qb of the Steelers and hope he remains so for a few more good years. I just don't think this season was meant to be.

the same can be said on any team. the thing the other 31 teams cant say is that they have the best receiving corp in the league. i expect more. ill take fewer passing yards and lower YPA if it means fewer turnovers, more TD's, and possibly even higher completion % (which is ridiculously good as it is).

ill still live and die with Ben as well. i dont like offering the guy constructive criticism but someone's gotta say it

[katmandu]

What makes this offense great is that it can do everything. What is frustrating is that it lacks patience. They could have buried Baltimore had they just been patient. If Ben and Haley can stay patient and just take what the defense is giving in the beginning, get a lead, then they will be able to blow the roof off the game.

A defense can't defend everything against this offense. Take what it gives you, take the lead, get them in panic mode and then go nuts.The lack of patience you speak of is their aggressiveness. I think that is one of the O's best traits. Attack, attack, attack and keep the D playing on their heels.

However, I do agree with you the D DOES need to back off at times and be more patient.

But you gotta admit when the O is hot, aggressive and on fire they are something else!

[zulater]

the same can be said on any team. the thing the other 31 teams cant say is that they have the best receiving corp in the league. i expect more. ill take fewer passing yards and lower YPA if it means fewer turnovers, more TD's, and possibly even higher completion % (which is ridiculously good as it is).

ill still live and die with Ben as well. i dont like offering the guy constructive criticism but someone's gotta say it

You ever think our receivers aren't as great as advertised, but only look so because Ben makes them look better than they are? Jerricho Cotchery, and Mike Williams sure don't look the same without Big Ben. DeAngelo Williams despite playing sparingly in 6 of our 16 games set career highs in receptions and yards rec. DHB went from a guy who didn't even look like he belonged in the league to a player who looks to belong in a NFL wr rotation. No question AB is one of the games top receivers, but is he challenging all time records without Ben? You put an ordinary qb behind center on this team and I don't think anyone is putting our receivers core as a unit up there among the best in the league. Not saying they're not all uniquely talented, but that talent doesn't come to the surface if they aren't getting the ball thrown to them.

[polamalubeast]

the same can be said on any team. the thing the other 31 teams cant say is that they have the best receiving corp in the league. i expect more. ill take fewer passing yards and lower YPA if it means fewer turnovers, more TD's, and possibly even higher completion % (which is ridiculously good as it is).

ill still live and die with Ben as well. i dont like offering the guy constructive criticism but someone's gotta say it


With fewer yards and a lower YPA, this offense would also have fewer PPG!.....And again, the lack of TD pass was because that DW was so good in the red zone inside the 5-yard line

Look, I did not like the offense in the last two games, but before that, it was impossible to criticize this offense.

[Mojouw]

You ever think our receivers aren't as great as advertised, but only look so because Ben makes them look better than they are? Jerricho Cotchery, and Mike Williams sure don't look the same without Big Ben. DeAngelo Williams despite playing sparingly in 6 of our 16 games set career highs in receptions and yards rec. DHB went from a guy who didn't even look like he belonged in the league to a player who looks to belong in a NFL wr rotation. No question AB is one of the games top receivers, but is he challenging all time records without Ben? You put an ordinary qb behind center on this team and I don't think anyone is putting our receivers core as a unit up there among the best in the league. Not saying they're not all uniquely talented, but that talent doesn't come to the surface if they aren't getting the ball thrown to them.

I see your point and agree with it to an extent. Good passing offenses are always a little hard to distinguish between the talent of the WRs and the effect of the QB throwing them the ball. I think in the Steelers case it is a little of both. AB is going to be good no matter where he is and who is at the helm. Maybe not 120+ receptions good, but good none the less. He simply creates too much separation in his routes to not get the ball. DHB is a good example of your point. Ben's accuracy gives him a chance to overcome his suspect hands. Same with Bryant. Also, I truly believe Ben's accuracy and mind-meld with Miller has and will continue to extend Miller's career. At this point Heath doesn't even need speed, quickness, etc anymore. He just has to beat guys to pre-determined spots. It is amazing to watch those two work.

[Born2Steel]

What the article should include is results of the deep ball on 3&3 vs results of us using the short game or runs. 5 of 10 doesn't mean very much just all by itself. Stats need to include comparisons to really know their significance.