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hawaiiansteeler
11-11-2015, 11:50 AM
Looking ahead: Steelers 2016 salary cap and free agents

By Simon Chester

The signing of Jacoby Jones and release of Dri Archer on Thursday were yet more moves to an ever changing roster this season and ones that impacted the Steelers salary cap both this year and next.

Last week we took a look at the teams current salary cap situation. This week we turn our attention to the Steelers cap position for 2016 and it very quickly becomes clear that a little dead money from the release of Archer is the least of their problems.

First the good news …

The Steelers will open the 2016 season with the least amount of dead money they have had on their books in sometime. As it stands the Steelers are set to carry $765,187 in dead money next year, a figure that should not be expected to increase much at all over coming months, barring some unforeseen and surprising cut to an established player.

Now the bad …

The Steelers will face a number of challenging decision as they begin the new year with one of the lowest amounts of cap space in the league. As of today only the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints have less cap space available next year and based on number of players under contract, the Steelers have less cap room than the Patriots in all reality.

In the table below we have detailed the players and contracts that make up the Steelers 2016 salary cap. For this purpose we have worked off an expected league wide salary cap of $150 million. It is possibly a slightly conservative estimate for next year but is a good starting point to work from.

to read rest of article:

http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2015/11/11/steelers-salary-cap-2016-free-agents-update-status-projections/

steelreserve
11-11-2015, 12:21 PM
Well, it's better than being $20 million over the cap to start the offseason. But yeah, certain things are not going to cut it, like having only four DBs under contract total, so still some things that need to be done.

I assume they'll do what they always do: Restructure Ben, restructure Timmons, restructure whoever they signed to a huge contract the season before. Gotta get that signing-bonus funny money total back up to par. Hey, it's the same as dead money, but if they don't CALL it dead money, it must be good, right?

TeeTee
11-11-2015, 05:36 PM
I don't know why they roll so unwise with how they handle the cap. It's like all they have is a hammer so everything looks like a nail. Smarten up, Colbert.

ALLD
11-11-2015, 05:56 PM
They can cut Jacoby Jones now.
Spaeth will be a casualty.
I would see if Pouncey will take a cut because he simply cannot stay on the field. $10M is way too much for somebody who watches more than he plays regardless of circumstances.
Timmons is also good, but he will need a new contract. $15M is simply too much for his position.
Cortez Allen will not be on the team, so no worries there.
Sushi should be traded.

Mojouw
11-11-2015, 06:41 PM
Oh. Boy. My favorite time of year. All the calls for the front office to be better at their jobs. But, shockingly, all that any one can come up with is either blanket criticism or unrealistic proposals that only work in their minds or in Franchise mode on Madden.

No way Pouncey takes a pay cut. That is ludicrous.

Timmons only takes a cut if they tack years on to the deal.

Name 4 other teams whose roster and cap situation you would rather have? I can only think of about 2 or 3. Packers, Seahawks, and MAYBE the Patriots.

But, hey - Colbert needs to do better. Because that makes me look like a serious fan.

Allen was a gamble that failed and if you look at the deal, the contract was structured so they can cut him with little pain. Decastro, Beachum, Roethlisberger, Timmons, and AB could all get extensions to INCREASE available cap space. Only one on that list that is a difficult decision is Timmons - depends on how many more years they think he has.

Or we could be the Jaguars and have 47 players under contract for 2016 and over 45 million in cap space and still be one of the worst teams in football.

ALLD
11-11-2015, 07:37 PM
I would still look for a center in the draft if a decent one came up in the 3rd round.

steelreserve
11-11-2015, 08:31 PM
Oh. Boy. My favorite time of year. All the calls for the front office to be better at their jobs. But, shockingly, all that any one can come up with is either blanket criticism or unrealistic proposals that only work in their minds or in Franchise mode on Madden.

No way Pouncey takes a pay cut. That is ludicrous.

Timmons only takes a cut if they tack years on to the deal.

Name 4 other teams whose roster and cap situation you would rather have? I can only think of about 2 or 3. Packers, Seahawks, and MAYBE the Patriots.

But, hey - Colbert needs to do better. Because that makes me look like a serious fan.

Allen was a gamble that failed and if you look at the deal, the contract was structured so they can cut him with little pain. Decastro, Beachum, Roethlisberger, Timmons, and AB could all get extensions to INCREASE available cap space. Only one on that list that is a difficult decision is Timmons - depends on how many more years they think he has.

Or we could be the Jaguars and have 47 players under contract for 2016 and over 45 million in cap space and still be one of the worst teams in football.


Yes, we're all idiots. Colbert is a genius, Khan even more so. Every contract a bargain, every draft pick a right one.

Where would I rather us be in terms or roster and cap space? You know what, you're right, what was I thinking - gaping holes and no cap space is fine. Half a team will get us there.

And I totally forgot that being 8-8 for two years and damn close to it this year means we're doing awesome. It's totally cool to be a .500 team with the fourth-worst cap situation in the league. That one season where we had the second-easiest schedule of all teams in the last 25 years of the NFL is a better indicator, and we got there ALL because of Tomlin's heart.

It's OK to see us mortgaging the future already to keep the core of those 8-8 teams together. I mean, last time we did that was for a team that was winning championships, but never too soon to get a head start! We don't need cap space anyway, that's just the market. We'll be OK as long as we keep drafting linebackers.

Mojouw
11-11-2015, 10:12 PM
My point exactly. No alternatives offered. No different version of a path forward.

I never said Colbert was a genius or always correct. Anyone can criticize. But can you offer realistic alternatives? If not, it isn't a conversation is it? It's just a bunch of folks yelling to see who can bitch the loudest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

steelreserve
11-12-2015, 10:33 AM
My point exactly. No alternatives offered. No different version of a path forward.

I never said Colbert was a genius or always correct. Anyone can criticize. But can you offer realistic alternatives? If not, it isn't a conversation is it? It's just a bunch of folks yelling to see who can bitch the loudest.


Been doing that for quite some time, actually.

"Got $8M in cap space and a guy to extend at $7M or $8M a season? Give him a contract that pays him $6M-$7M-$8M-$9M instead of $2M-$6M-$12M-$14M" - "Nope, Khan is a cap genius!"

"Don't restructure Woodley or it'll come back to bite us." - "Nope, the FO knows what they're doing!"

"I don't know why we want to restructure Timmons again - we'll have like $15M in dead money." - "No,it won't be that bad, the FO knows what they're doing.!"

"Got a mediocre lineman like Colon or Kemo? Find another one instead of paying them a huge contract." - "Nope, that's the market, nobody else will be half as good."


Any of that sound familiar?

Mojouw
11-12-2015, 12:48 PM
Been doing that for quite some time, actually.

"Got $8M in cap space and a guy to extend at $7M or $8M a season? Give him a contract that pays him $6M-$7M-$8M-$9M instead of $2M-$6M-$12M-$14M" - "Nope, Khan is a cap genius!"

"Don't restructure Woodley or it'll come back to bite us." - "Nope, the FO knows what they're doing!"

"I don't know why we want to restructure Timmons again - we'll have like $15M in dead money." - "No,it won't be that bad, the FO knows what they're doing.!"

"Got a mediocre lineman like Colon or Kemo? Find another one instead of paying them a huge contract." - "Nope, that's the market, nobody else will be half as good."


Any of that sound familiar?

It does. And very few of those are realistic alternative scenarios. It is not enough to simply say "Don't pay this player $8 million when you should only pay $6 million." You have to go out and find a similar player in age and ability that actually gets paid that.

If you get rid of Timmons because he costs too much, who do you have playing middle linebacker?

If you are cutting or not resigning a player because they are not seen as good enough versus their cap hit - who (and they actually have to be a free agent) are you signing to replace them on the roster?

steelreserve
11-12-2015, 01:45 PM
I was never suggesting we magically make our players take less money than they are worth, though you seem to think that's all anything is ever about.

I suggested things like spreading the cap hit out evenly rather than extreme backloading.

Or like not restructuring contracts when we don't absolutely need to, because of the crippling dead money when it comes time to part ways.

And yeah, sometimes we overpay. Timmons we were basically bidding against ourselves and ended up at $10 million. We could've had him for 20-25% less, no doubt in my mind at all. No need to replace him.

For players like, say, Kemo or Colon - or in more modern times, Worilds or J. Jones - it is perfectly legitimate to say that "generic player X" would be a fine replacement. The argument is pretty simple: They're below-average, and there are any number of average players every year who you can replace them with, and I do not want to spend an hour getting into every detail of that because it is a waste of time. You can tell which players are pulling their weight and which aren't; you can also tell pretty often when contracts are a mistake and when they aren't.

steelreserve
11-12-2015, 05:26 PM
By the way, just to clarify that last part ... the reason getting into the "Well, specifically who would you replace so-and-so with" argument is unproductive is because unless you suggest one of the top blue-chip free agents on the market, 90% of the time people dismiss it out of hand. I don't know how many conversations I've had that have gone like this:

They: "Worilds has us over a barrel. We have to pay him, or else what are our other options?"
Me: "Well, we just signed Moats last year, and we've still got Harrison. We'll be OK."
They: "NOOOOOOOOOOO! Moats won't be any good! Harrison is done! MUST have $9 million pass rusher!"

or

They: "Well, who would you replace Sanders with? No way can we get someone off the street!"
Me: "Well, we usually don't have a problem picking up a veteran third WR for $1M or $2M a year, or we could draft one."
They: "NOOOOOOOOOOO theyre all garbage!!!! Never work!! You're saying we need to draft WR in the first round then!!!"

or

They: "What'll we do for a pass rusher? We're thin at OLB."
Me: "We could give Chickillo a shot, see if he's any good."
They: "NOOOOOOOOO! Wishful thinking! Must have $9M pass rusher!"
Me: "Or we could get an actual nose tackle for $4M or so, there are plenty of them. Or we could draft one. That'll improve the pass rushers."
They: "NOOOOOOOOO! Can never draft one! The veterans are all garbage! Steve McLendon forever!!!"

... and so on. You get the idea. Just tiresome, is what that is.

Mojouw
11-12-2015, 06:09 PM
By the way, just to clarify that last part ... the reason getting into the "Well, specifically who would you replace so-and-so with" argument is unproductive is because unless you suggest one of the top blue-chip free agents on the market, 90% of the time people dismiss it out of hand. I don't know how many conversations I've had that have gone like this:

They: "Worilds has us over a barrel. We have to pay him, or else what are our other options?"
Me: "Well, we just signed Moats last year, and we've still got Harrison. We'll be OK."
They: "NOOOOOOOOOOO! Moats won't be any good! Harrison is done! MUST have $9 million pass rusher!"

or

They: "Well, who would you replace Sanders with? No way can we get someone off the street!"
Me: "Well, we usually don't have a problem picking up a veteran third WR for $1M or $2M a year, or we could draft one."
They: "NOOOOOOOOOOO theyre all garbage!!!! Never work!! You're saying we need to draft WR in the first round then!!!"

or

They: "What'll we do for a pass rusher? We're thin at OLB."
Me: "We could give Chickillo a shot, see if he's any good."
They: "NOOOOOOOOO! Wishful thinking! Must have $9M pass rusher!"
Me: "Or we could get an actual nose tackle for $4M or so, there are plenty of them. Or we could draft one. That'll improve the pass rushers."
They: "NOOOOOOOOO! Can never draft one! The veterans are all garbage! Steve McLendon forever!!!"

... and so on. You get the idea. Just tiresome, is what that is.

I can actually see your point there. And it is a good one.

I just can't get past the fact that year after year - the cap boogie man is supposed to come calling and it simply never seems to happen.

It would be nice to be able to get a decent FA DB for once though. I guess Mitchell is starting to come through - but some kind of corner would be such a welcome addition. WOuld change the entire nature of the defense.

Steeldude
11-12-2015, 06:38 PM
How much cap would be saved by cutting Timmons?

teegre
11-12-2015, 06:58 PM
How much cap would be saved by cutting Timmons?

Good question.

He's scheduled to make $15 million. I've really enjoyed Timmons as a player, but I'd go with Williams and/or Spence (playing beside of Shazier)... and, use that money on DeCastro, Beachum, & Bell.

fansince'76
11-12-2015, 07:42 PM
He's scheduled to make $15 million.

Timmons is a good player, but not that good...

steelreserve
11-13-2015, 12:38 AM
Timmons is a good player, but not that good...


His salary is about $8.7M (which probably would've been about right if we'd left it alone). The rest is restructure funny money that we have to eat either way. Still, at this point, I'd just as soon take the $8.7M and try to get an impact player in the secondary and/or some DL depth. Haven't honestly noticed a huge difference this year when the backups are in.

Side note: One guy who's not on the salary list but I assume we'll try to bring back is Golden. He's been nothing if not consistent back there, and importantly, I've rarely seen him miss a tackle. I wonder how much he'll command. If it's a couple million, him replacing Allen could work out pretty well for us.

86WARD
11-13-2015, 05:53 AM
It's only funny money if they don't extend him and keep him longer...? If they decide he's a "lifer", like Ben, the money eventually works its way out. You get stuck in a Woodley type situation...no?

teegre
11-13-2015, 06:43 AM
Timmons is a good player, but not that good...

Exactly.

It reminds me of the Joey Porter situation. A very solid guy, a great player, who could possibly be a lifer... but, the players behind him might actually be better (and, are certainly more affordable).

tube517
11-13-2015, 07:31 AM
Timmons is a good player, but not that good...

Add on age and (I suspect) a possible nagging turf toe, and Timmons is whiffing tackles. Luckily, we have depth behind him.

fansince'76
11-13-2015, 08:41 AM
Exactly.

It reminds me of the Joey Porter situation. A very solid guy, a great player, who could possibly be a lifer... but, the players behind him might actually be better (and, are certainly more affordable).


Add on age and (I suspect) a possible nagging turf toe, and Timmons is whiffing tackles. Luckily, we have depth behind him.

Yep. For $15 mil, I expect Patrick Willis.

Steeldude
11-13-2015, 08:49 AM
Oh. Boy. My favorite time of year. All the calls for the front office to be better at their jobs. But, shockingly, all that any one can come up with is either blanket criticism or unrealistic proposals that only work in their minds or in Franchise mode on Madden.

No way Pouncey takes a pay cut. That is ludicrous.

Timmons only takes a cut if they tack years on to the deal.

Name 4 other teams whose roster and cap situation you would rather have? I can only think of about 2 or 3. Packers, Seahawks, and MAYBE the Patriots.

But, hey - Colbert needs to do better. Because that makes me look like a serious fan.

Allen was a gamble that failed and if you look at the deal, the contract was structured so they can cut him with little pain. Decastro, Beachum, Roethlisberger, Timmons, and AB could all get extensions to INCREASE available cap space. Only one on that list that is a difficult decision is Timmons - depends on how many more years they think he has.

Or we could be the Jaguars and have 47 players under contract for 2016 and over 45 million in cap space and still be one of the worst teams in football.

So then you are saying fans are always wrong and the FO is always right?

- - - Updated - - -


Yep. For $15 mil, I expect Patrick Willis.

I expect Jack Lambert : )

Mojouw
11-13-2015, 10:42 AM
So then you are saying fans are always wrong and the FO is always right?

Not at all. I am saying that fans, typically, have unrealistic expectations. They also seem to continually fail to place things in any proper context. What I am saying is that the FO is full of people who do this for a living. I can read all I want to about welding and be an avid fan of welding - but I suspect that wouldn't translate to me suddenly being one of the 50 best welders on the planet.

I find it highly illogical to start an evaluation of or form an opinion on every move the franchise and coaching staff makes from some version of "these guys are not smart and are terrible at their jobs" as the starting point. This is not the Cleveland Browns, Jags, Lions, 'Skins, or some other mismanaged monkey-shit fight of a franchise. Despite the recent lack of deep playoff runs - this is still a franchise that has not suffered a losing season while totally remaking their roster. Something the Ravens and their supposedly better Head Coach and vaunted GM will likely be unable to say after the current season.

In what world - besides the dreamy meritocracy we all wish we lived in - does Pouncey agree to a pay cut?

What is the point of having oodles of cap space if there is nothing to spend it on that actually improves your team? Not a ton of players that would change a franchise on this list - and the few that would will likely never see the light of day -- http://overthecap.com/free-agency/

Here is an example - remember when we all that that Gilbert's extension was an overpay? How does that look now?

For the sake of balance - Timmons extension and restructure (to be off-set by a future extension) seemed fine when he was playing like one of the best ILB in the game (2012-14). Now if his play falls off a cliff due to father time, injury, or both -- it is going to bite this franchise squarely in the ass. But, I am not sure that keeping one of the - at the time the contract was signed - best and in his prime 3-4 ILB in the game was a bad idea.

I realize the restructures drive folks nuts - I hate them as well. It is just too much of gamble in a business where there are too many unpredictable variables. But they should be over after this season. The previous dead money is almost all off the books. That means that the Timmons $15 million cap hit is the last of a long line of drastic short-term maneuvers to get cap relief. It will be critical that the Timmons extension/restructure/release is handled properly so that the cycle does not start anew. If the Steelers allow a situation where the cycle is restarted and there are not a series of Lombardi trophies also entering town - then it is a bad move.

A final bit of a rant - all these moves are connected. Want to know why they drafted Shazier? Fuller was off the board and Timmons was scheduled to make 15 million flipping dollars in his age 30 season! Want to know why they keep drafting WRS - because as others have pointed out paying guys like Sanders is silly. No roster move, contract extension, free agent signing, draft pick, etc in the NFL happens in a vacuum - they are the result of a series of interconnected events and projections of future performance. They need to be understood as such.

fansince'76
11-13-2015, 11:12 AM
This is not the Cleveland Browns, Jags, Lions, 'Skins, or some other mismanaged monkey-shit fight of a franchise.

You mind if I adopt this? :chuckle:

As to the rest...

https://media.giphy.com/media/b9aScKLxdv0Y0/giphy.gif

fansince'76
11-13-2015, 11:20 AM
I expect Jack Lambert : )

Even better! :thumbsup:

steelreserve
11-13-2015, 11:40 AM
It's only funny money if they don't extend him and keep him longer...? If they decide he's a "lifer", like Ben, the money eventually works its way out. You get stuck in a Woodley type situation...no?


No, it's still funny money. It's money we already paid him for past seasons, and it's counting now. There's no way to get it back. Extending him just spreads the funny money out over more seasons (and probably adds more in the form of another signing bonus (which is called "signing bonus" instead of "another restructure" in name only)). If he's making any significant amount of money, we'll probably restructure THAT next year too, because hey, it's what we do.

We're not in danger of getting stuck in a Woodley situation. We ARE in a Woodley situation. The only difference is this guy can actually still play worth a damn.

Extending him, though ... that's a losing move IMO. His play is down from previous years, and that would be a bet that he starts improving again at the end of his career. For non-QBs, the odds of that are about 99% against. Sucks, but it's just what happens to everyone.

tube517
11-13-2015, 12:00 PM
You mind if I adopt this? :chuckle:

As to the rest...

https://media.giphy.com/media/b9aScKLxdv0Y0/giphy.gif

great minds think alike. Shall we create a Mojouw-isms thread because that one was classic! :chuckle:

Craic
11-13-2015, 12:57 PM
Not at all. I am saying that fans, typically, have unrealistic expectations. They also seem to continually fail to place things in any proper context. What I am saying is that the FO is full of people who do this for a living. I can read all I want to about welding and be an avid fan of welding - but I suspect that wouldn't translate to me suddenly being one of the 50 best welders on the planet.

I find it highly illogical to start an evaluation of or form an opinion on every move the franchise and coaching staff makes from some version of "these guys are not smart and are terrible at their jobs" as the starting point. This is not the Cleveland Browns, Jags, Lions, 'Skins, or some other mismanaged monkey-shit fight of a franchise. Despite the recent lack of deep playoff runs - this is still a franchise that has not suffered a losing season while totally remaking their roster. Something the Ravens and their supposedly better Head Coach and vaunted GM will likely be unable to say after the current season.

In what world - besides the dreamy meritocracy we all wish we lived in - does Pouncey agree to a pay cut?

What is the point of having oodles of cap space if there is nothing to spend it on that actually improves your team? Not a ton of players that would change a franchise on this list - and the few that would will likely never see the light of day -- http://overthecap.com/free-agency/

Here is an example - remember when we all that that Gilbert's extension was an overpay? How does that look now?

For the sake of balance - Timmons extension and restructure (to be off-set by a future extension) seemed fine when he was playing like one of the best ILB in the game (2012-14). Now if his play falls off a cliff due to father time, injury, or both -- it is going to bite this franchise squarely in the ass. But, I am not sure that keeping one of the - at the time the contract was signed - best and in his prime 3-4 ILB in the game was a bad idea.

I realize the restructures drive folks nuts - I hate them as well. It is just too much of gamble in a business where there are too many unpredictable variables. But they should be over after this season. The previous dead money is almost all off the books. That means that the Timmons $15 million cap hit is the last of a long line of drastic short-term maneuvers to get cap relief. It will be critical that the Timmons extension/restructure/release is handled properly so that the cycle does not start anew. If the Steelers allow a situation where the cycle is restarted and there are not a series of Lombardi trophies also entering town - then it is a bad move.

A final bit of a rant - all these moves are connected. Want to know why they drafted Shazier? Fuller was off the board and Timmons was scheduled to make 15 million flipping dollars in his age 30 season! Want to know why they keep drafting WRS - because as others have pointed out paying guys like Sanders is silly. No roster move, contract extension, free agent signing, draft pick, etc in the NFL happens in a vacuum - they are the result of a series of interconnected events and projections of future performance. They need to be understood as such.

This.

So This.

I'm reminded of how presidential candidates promise the moon, only to get into office and realize they had no idea what they were talking about. There's so much that goes on behind the scenes that, unless you've actually been there, you simply have no clue what your talking about when it comes to managing a team/salaries/cap/etc. That's not to say people don't have talent in assessing a player; it's to say what people see and assess is 5-15 percent of the overall picture.

steelreserve
11-13-2015, 01:43 PM
This.

So This.

I'm reminded of how presidential candidates promise the moon, only to get into office and realize they had no idea what they were talking about. There's so much that goes on behind the scenes that, unless you've actually been there, you simply have no clue what your talking about when it comes to managing a team/salaries/cap/etc. That's not to say people don't have talent in assessing a player; it's to say what people see and assess is 5-15 percent of the overall picture.


Yeah, and in that case, what he said, and what you said, is also only the same 5-15 percent of the picture, and nobody knows what they're talking about. Well, guess there's no point to it all, then. </forums>

Sorry, but I don't buy the fact that none of us has any clue about contracts and salary cap stuff. The numbers are all an open book, and while every detail of negotiations isn't public, over time enough comes out that you get a pretty good general picture of what works and what doesn't.

I'd say it's more like 5-15 percent of the picture is hidden, and that's just negotiating. Agents and GMs aren't magical pixies with superhuman abilities. They're just negotiating like in any high-pressure job. It isn't some amazing black box that us mere mortals can't comprehend. Sure, you'd probably get there and find that things are a little different from what you expected because of personalities and unwritten rules, but the idea that it's completely untouchable and we'd all be completely out of our depth? Just because football? Give me a break.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I could stand around on the sidelines during training camp and suddenly know how to run an NFL practice, or that I could learn how to draw up an offensive game plan from scratch just from watching enough games on TV, or figure out how to evaluate talent and be better at drafting than the front office. THOSE are the kinds of things that take special skills that most of us don't have and can't get easily. Contracts and salary cap stuff are just business. That's one area where it's COMPLETELY reasonable to second-guess.

Craic
11-14-2015, 04:52 PM
Yeah, and in that case, what he said, and what you said, is also only the same 5-15 percent of the picture, and nobody knows what they're talking about. Well, guess there's no point to it all, then. </forums>

I didn't know forums existed for the sole reason of second-guessing management. I thought they existed for fans to talk about their team and the previous games and excitement over the coming season and where to tailgate when in Pittsburgh and how the Browns suck and the thousand other things we talk about. Silly me.


Sorry, but I don't buy the fact that none of us has any clue about contracts and salary cap stuff. The numbers are all an open book, and while every detail of negotiations isn't public, over time enough comes out that you get a pretty good general picture of what works and what doesn't.

I'd say it's more like 5-15 percent of the picture is hidden, and that's just negotiating. Agents and GMs aren't magical pixies with superhuman abilities. They're just negotiating like in any high-pressure job. It isn't some amazing black box that us mere mortals can't comprehend. Sure, you'd probably get there and find that things are a little different from what you expected because of personalities and unwritten rules, but the idea that it's completely untouchable and we'd all be completely out of our depth? Just because football? Give me a break.
And the fact that you limited your response to that of contracts and salary cap simply supports my point. Tell me, how many of the developmental players have you watched during practice? How many of the 2nd and 3rd stringers have you watched throughout the week, each week? How many players have you spoke to privately that are going through something they don't want made public, but is affecting their game, and once it's behind them, their game should pick up tremendously? When was the last time you got an injury report that wasn't made public a la Mitchell last year? How many players have hinted to you about retirement? How many players have you received reports on concerning positive results for drugs (which are not made public according to the CBA)? How many coaches have sat with you and shared what they see in a player, and if they can get it developed, X Millions will be a steal for their services?

But yeah, it's just about contracts and caps. :rolleyes:




Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I could stand around on the sidelines during training camp and suddenly know how to run an NFL practice, or that I could learn how to draw up an offensive game plan from scratch just from watching enough games on TV, or figure out how to evaluate talent and be better at drafting than the front office. THOSE are the kinds of things that take special skills that most of us don't have and can't get easily. Contracts and salary cap stuff are just business. That's one area where it's COMPLETELY reasonable to second-guess.
Because talent evaluation, ability to understand a player's ability to participate according to a game plan, an ability to project possible drafts for position, etcetera has nothing to do with keeping or letting players go, right? I'm sorry, but it's a pretty simplistic view. Yes, it's a business, and a business in which you must know your product extremely well before you buy or extend, and also know how that product will fit with the rest of the products. If it were as easy as you make it out to be, the NFL franchises would just go hire some accountants at 80k a year and be done with it.

steelreserve
11-14-2015, 11:32 PM
I didn't know forums existed for the sole reason of second-guessing management. I thought they existed for fans to talk about their team and the previous games and excitement over the coming season and where to tailgate when in Pittsburgh and how the Browns suck and the thousand other things we talk about. Silly me.

And the fact that you limited your response to that of contracts and salary cap simply supports my point. Tell me, how many of the developmental players have you watched during practice? How many of the 2nd and 3rd stringers have you watched throughout the week, each week? How many players have you spoke to privately that are going through something they don't want made public, but is affecting their game, and once it's behind them, their game should pick up tremendously? When was the last time you got an injury report that wasn't made public a la Mitchell last year? How many players have hinted to you about retirement? How many players have you received reports on concerning positive results for drugs (which are not made public according to the CBA)? How many coaches have sat with you and shared what they see in a player, and if they can get it developed, X Millions will be a steal for their services?

But yeah, it's just about contracts and caps. :rolleyes:

Because talent evaluation, ability to understand a player's ability to participate according to a game plan, an ability to project possible drafts for position, etcetera has nothing to do with keeping or letting players go, right? I'm sorry, but it's a pretty simplistic view. Yes, it's a business, and a business in which you must know your product extremely well before you buy or extend, and also know how that product will fit with the rest of the products. If it were as easy as you make it out to be, the NFL franchises would just go hire some accountants at 80k a year and be done with it.



... and yet somehow, in spite of all that, I generally know a good deal when I see one and a bad deal when I see one.

"We paid Woodley way too much, that contract is going to be trouble." "We shouldn't keep restructuring Timmons' contract like that or eventually it's going to come back and bite us." "Brown's contract is a risk, but the kind of risk worth taking." "If we can get Allen for a medium contract like $5M or $6M, that's a gamble but it won't kill us if it goes bad." "If Wallace wants that much money, let him go." "No, $7M isn't too much for Miller, he can still play at a high level." "Worilds isn't worth a big long-term contract." "It's not going to be some record-breaking $25 million megablockbuster deal for Ben; he'll sign for $20M on the nose."

I mean - HOLY SHIT! How the fuck did I come up with all that? I must have some kind of crystal ball, or else it's the luckiest thing, like, EVER. Luckier than a blind guy winning the Olympic gold medal for tennis.

That, or else it's really not all such a huge fucking mystery, and you can ballpark it pretty well as long as you're paying attention.

Once you get past the "Trade Ben, fire Tomlin, tank the season for the #1 draft pick" nonsense, most people here have some pretty good points about that stuff. They're not all the same (thank god), and they're not always right, but the front office isn't always right either. Once in a while there's a real surprise, like Landry Jones turning out to be an idiot-savant (though I get the feeling that caught the coaches by surprise too), but for the most part it's all reasonable.

IMO falling back to the old line of "You're not a professional football coach so you're not qualified to judge" is a pretty cheap way out of an argument and doesn't do anything to bring about interesting conversation. The people it's directed at are generally well aware that they don't work in the NFL and don't need it repeated for the thousandth time, so it just comes off as sort of condescending background noise.

If a message board is just for standing around and gawking at the blinding light that is the team and the league, I guess that's one thing you can do, but it's not really a full experience for everyone.