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View Full Version : Wheaton may be better than his stats



Mojouw
05-10-2015, 12:41 PM
Looking at Wheaton's traditional stats, he caught 53 of 86 targets (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WheaMa00.htm).

But detailed analysis of those targets argues that 25 of those 86 were uncatchable (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-receivers). For reference, uncatchable is defined as "...batted at the line, quarterback hit in motion, overthrown, quarterback release slipped, thrown away, tipped by teammate or underthrown."

That means that Wheaton only didn't pull in 8 of his 61 catchable targets or 87%.

For comparison, Brown caught 129 of 181 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowAn04.htm) with 32 being uncatchable (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-receivers). So that shifts things to 129 catches on 149 catchable targets....or...wait for it.....wait for it.....87%.

Now, as others have pointed out there did seem times where Wheaton didn't seem on the same page, but it was basically his rookie year. It isn't his fault that in contrast Brown and Ben basically have ESP.

Long story short -- Wheaton had a better year than I thought. This WR corps, ASSUMING that Coates can catch, is going to be terrifying!

Bluecoat96
05-10-2015, 01:38 PM
I'm definitely excited about the potential of this WR corps for next year. We'll see how it goes.

GBMelBlount
05-10-2015, 05:19 PM
Very good analysis.

So will Wheatley's uncatchable percent (which is 60% higher than Brown's) drop dramatically this year?

I sure hope one more year makes a big difference.

If not it is a concern.

zulater
05-10-2015, 05:34 PM
A lot of those "uncatchable" passes were a result of a bad routes or reads by Wheaton. Not nearly so many (by percentage) of bad balls being thrown to Antonio or Heath. Don't get me wrong, wheaton was more or less a rookie last year, much of what happened is to be expected, and I'll bet it will improve greatly this year. But let's call it as it was. More often than not when Wheaton was thrown a so called incatchable pass Ben was seen muttering and shaking his head angrily afterwards.

hawaiiansteeler
06-17-2015, 12:03 AM
Markus Wheaton confirms he'll be working out of the slot much more often in 2015

https://twitter.com/Alex_Kozora