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hawaiiansteeler
04-26-2015, 10:59 PM
STEELERS DRAFT '15: FIRST ROUND ODDS

Jim Wexell
Publisher SteelCityInsider.net
Apr 26, 2015

http://imgix.scout.com/151/1510130.jpg?w=600&h=360&fit=max

Any of several troubled top prospects could slip to the Steelers at pick 22.

One after another the troubles of those who had been Top-10 prospects have caused a shift in this year's draft rankings.

The draft's best cornerback was kicked off his team last November.

The best running back went down with a torn ACL a week later.

The best safety hurt his shoulder in December, didn't lift at the Combine and looked out of shape at his pro day.

The most sudden pass-rusher smoked so much weed late last year that even stopping for two months didn't help him pass the Combine drug test.

And the pass-rusher with the best motor has a foot injury that caused at least one team to strike him recently from its board.

Forgotten in this wave of trouble is Jameis Winston, the perpetual bad-boy quarterback who's come full circle and is back at the top of the draft board, tucked safely away from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not that he was ever a question.

But who will the Steelers take at pick 22? Well, here are my odds with less than a week to go:

* La'el Collins OT-OG 20-1 -- The Steelers have shown no interest in first-round offensive linemen, but Collins, a terrific tackle-guard zone/power prospect, is listed only as my form of protest.

* Landon Collins SS 15-1 -- He's been the go-to choice of national media who don't seem to realize Shamarko Thomas will get first crack at replacing Troy Polamalu. Also, Collins injured his shoulder late last season and he didn't look like he wanted to tackle anyone.

* Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE 14-1 -- This is my guy because of his athleticism, motor, the way he overcame childhood hardship, his work ethic, the way he can turn speed to power and harass quarterbacks, and also his ability to play the edge in both the run and pass-downs schemes. But the Steelers seemingly aren't interested.

* Preston Smith DE 13-1 -- Less of a need is the 4-3 end who can move further inside on pass downs, but at least the Steelers have shown interest in Smith.

* Byron Jones CB 11-1 -- Jones has the size and Superman-like athletic skills, but for whatever reason the Steelers have shown little interest. Maybe it's the shoulder injury that wrecked his last season. Maybe it's Jones' lack of tape against top competition after moving to the corner from safety two seasons ago. But he seems to make sense in the way Ryan Shazier did last year as a 9-1 shot. But I've made Jones' odds longer because I believe the Philadelphia Eagles will pick him at 20.

* Jalen Collins CB 10-1 -- A lot of people who are smarter than me are mocking this guy to the Steelers. Yes, Collins has the size and speed, but the guy started only 10 games in four years (one redshirt year) at LSU. Collins even admitted his problems had to do with off-the-field issues. I just don't understand the attention from the draft media.

* Randy Gregory OLB 9-1 -- The best pass-rusher in the draft has two strikes against him: 1.) chronic pot smoker, and 2.) at 230 pounds was easily pushed around (and hurt) by the college game's bigger tackles last season. Also, there's a good chance Gregory won't make it to pick 22.

* Kevin Johnson CB 8-1 -- In my opinion, Johnson's a better cornerback than Trae Waynes, the consensus No. 1 corner in this draft. Johnson seems to be a better fit for the Steelers, too, but I just can't imagine Mike Tomlin getting all that excited about a 185-pounder in the first round, even if he is available.

* Eric Rowe CB 7-1 -- Size, speed and Rowe can fall back to safety if he doesn't have enough deep speed to be a pro cornerback. In his only season at the position, Rowe showed remarkable press-man skills and would be an ideal replacement one day for Ike Taylor as a lockdown type. Rowe may very well become my draft-day prediction, but right now there's very little public interest in a guy most view as a second-rounder.

* Marcus Peters CB 6-1 -- Troubled but exceptional, Peters is physical in the Steelers' mold. But is he too much trouble? Should a team that's lost an abundance of character and leadership take a chance on a guy who was kicked off his college team? Well, cornerback has never really been a position of leadership. Sometimes the ornery guy is too far away from everyone else to be much of a worry.

* Shane Ray OLB 5-1 -- This could be the player who drops into the Steelers' lap and causes another sprint to the podium. A foot issue hindered Ray's pro day numbers, and while he said it's not a problem, the Dallas Cowboys, for one, have taken him off their board. In a first round that's top-heavy with pass-rushers, Ray could be the one to slip, and the Steelers would likely pounce.

* Eli Harold OLB 4-1 -- Harold ranks a half step back from the top tier of pass-rushers in this draft because he needs to add more weight and is probably a year away from being much help to an NFL team. But Harold would some day be able to play both DE and OLB in the Steelers' packages, and he'll likely be available at pick 22.

http://pit.scout.com/story/1540982-steelers-draft-15-first-round-odds?s=68

hawaiiansteeler
04-27-2015, 12:00 AM
James C Wexell @jimwexell -

Jarvis Jones was the clear-cut favorite in 2013, but last year I had Ryan Shazier at 9-1 and in 2012 David DeCastro was at 8-1.

https://twitter.com/jimwexell

Steeldude
04-27-2015, 01:21 AM
Maybe trading down will be a better option

cold-hard-steel
04-27-2015, 06:15 AM
No trading .Wish Chuck was around to instill the importance of getting to the qb.

teegre
04-27-2015, 10:05 AM
* Marcus Peters CB 6-1 -- Troubled but exceptional, Peters is physical in the Steelers' mold. But is he too much trouble? Should a team that's lost an abundance of character and leadership take a chance on a guy who was kicked off his college team? Well, cornerback has never really been a position of leadership. Sometimes the ornery guy is too far away from everyone else to be much of a worry.

I concur.

hawaiiansteeler
04-27-2015, 03:10 PM
so according to Wexell, odds are one of the following two 1st round scenarios unfolds:

OLB - Eli Harold, Shane Ray, Randy Grgory or

CB - Marcus Peters, Eric Rowe, Kevin Johnson, Jalen Collins, Byron Jones

LLT
04-27-2015, 03:41 PM
so according to Wexell, odds are one of the following two 1st round scenarios unfolds:

OLB - Eli Harold, Shane Ray, Randy Grgory or

CB - Marcus Peters, Eric Rowe, Kevin Johnson, Jalen Collins, Byron Jones

Jalen Collins being as raw as he is was already a red flag....now that we know he flunked NUMEROUS drug tests...there is no way in hell he is on our radar.

If Johnson is still on the board, he is our pick....if he is gone, it will be Peters.

86WARD
04-27-2015, 04:27 PM
I feel disappointed for some reason if it's Harold.

hawaiiansteeler
04-27-2015, 07:20 PM
Shane Ray's odds of becoming a Steeler just went from 5:1 to 50:1...

Shane Ray, Potential Top 10 Pick, Reportedly Cited for Marijuana Possession

By Mike Cardillo

https://usatthebiglead.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/shane-ray-missouri-tigers.jpg?w=1000&h=667

Shane Ray, a defensive end from the University of Missouri, was cited for marijuana possession on Monday morning via a report by KTGR’s Brandon Kiley. The arrest report says Ray was arrested with 35 grams or less of marijuana and also failed to “drive in the right lane of the highway with two or more lanes.”

Jason McIntyre had Ray going fifth to Washington in his 2015 Mock Draft. A list of other NFL Draft mock drafts on MMQB had Ray among the Top 10 picks.

We’ll have have to see if today’s news acts as a deterrent for teams who are less than three days away from being “on the clock.” Logic makes you think teams wouldn’t exactly be too thrilled about Ray’s judgement.

http://thebiglead.com/2015/04/27/shane-ray-potential-top-10-pick-reportedly-cited-for-marijuana-possession/

86WARD
04-27-2015, 07:26 PM
I'll be really disappointed if they select something other than a CB and Peters is still there.

Steelman
04-27-2015, 08:02 PM
Wow, rough week for Shane Ray... likely Top 10 pick, news emerges of foot injury, bumps him to middle 1st round, now pot possession and he's out of the first completely. These guys are really stupid to be doing this shit 3 days before the draft. Mind boggling.

Lady Steel
04-27-2015, 09:10 PM
Wow, rough week for Shane Ray... likely Top 10 pick, news emerges of foot injury, bumps him to middle 1st round, now pot possession and he's out of the first completely. These guys are really stupid to be doing this shit 3 days before the draft. Mind boggling.

Yep. Unbelievable. These guys are so mind numbingly stupid.

SteelerFanInStl
04-27-2015, 09:23 PM
Wow, rough week for Shane Ray... likely Top 10 pick, news emerges of foot injury, bumps him to middle 1st round, now pot possession and he's out of the first completely. These guys are really stupid to be doing this shit 3 days before the draft. Mind boggling.

Yea, he's an idiot. His stock was already falling enough with the injury.

Devilsdancefloor
04-27-2015, 09:28 PM
ray in the 2nd ha ha id take that peters and then ray i hink harold is more of 2nd day pick

hawaiiansteeler
04-27-2015, 09:43 PM
James C Wexell retweeted
Chad Jensen @ChadNJensen -

Dave-Te Thomas' can't miss players: "Leonard Williams, Shane Ray, Dante Fowler, La'El Collins, that's all folks." #NFLDraft

Dave-Te Thomas on LB Shane Ray being a "sure" bet: "Any team I polled said Ray is one of the top 5 sure bets." #NFLDraft

https://twitter.com/jimwexell

teegre
04-27-2015, 09:43 PM
Who gets drafted first: Gregory or Ray?

LLT
04-27-2015, 10:30 PM
Who gets drafted first: Gregory or Ray?

I think this actually HELPS where Gregory's lands in the draft.

Mojouw
04-28-2015, 10:06 AM
Gregory goes higher. Ray now has drugs and a possible medical red flag. Two strikes is more than one...

Actually what will be interesting is to see what Ray and Gregory's problems do to the draft position of that second tier of edge guys (Harold, Hunter, Orchard, etc). Do any of them sneak into the first round?

Also, if the Steelers want to take a "falling" prospect w/ questions in both of the first two rounds...you might be able to go Gregory/Ray/Peters in the first and then snag Collins in the second. I mean they can just room with Bell and everyone can smoke weed together!

TD's & Beer
04-28-2015, 10:10 AM
* Shane Ray OLB 5-1 -- This could be the player who drops into the Steelers' lap and causes another sprint to the podium. .


"Any team I polled said Ray is one of the top 5 sure bets." #NFLDraft

maybe not

Missouri pass rusher Shane Ray arrested for marijuana possession

"I’d like to apologize to my Mother, Fans and prospective NFL teams for my poor judgement Monday morning. I am embarrassed and realize there are consequences for my actions. I was not under the influence nor impaired, therefore I was not detained. Fortunately, Mondays incident only resulted in a citation. I will make better choices in the future"

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/report--missouri-pass-rusher-shane-ray-arrested-for-marijuana-possession-003041806.html

teegre
04-28-2015, 02:56 PM
I think this actually HELPS where Gregory's lands in the draft.

It certainly helps Dupree.

teegre
04-28-2015, 03:02 PM
Gregory goes higher. Ray now has drugs and a possible medical red flag. Two strikes is more than one...

Actually what will be interesting is to see what Ray and Gregory's problems do to the draft position of that second tier of edge guys (Harold, Hunter, Orchard, etc). Do any of them sneak into the first round?

Also, if the Steelers want to take a "falling" prospect w/ questions in both of the first two rounds...you might be able to go Gregory/Ray/Peters in the first and then snag Collins in the second. I mean they can just room with Bell and everyone can smoke weed together!

We shall call their room: The Hot Box :smoker:

I'll say this about Shane Ray: he plays with passion. When I think of Randy Moss, the weed smoking never caused any problems; it was his lack of passion. I think Ray will be alright. He had a joint (a JOINT) in his backpack. Sure, it's dumb to do that the week of the draft... but, when he's on the field, he gives everything he's got.

He'll be a Tapriot. Ugh.

Mojouw
04-28-2015, 03:26 PM
We shall call their room: The Hot Box :smoker:

I'll say this about Shane Ray: he plays with passion. When I think of Randy Moss, the weed smoking never caused any problems; it was his lack of passion. I think Ray will be alright. He had a joint (a JOINT) in his backpack. Sure, it's dumb to do that the week of the draft... but, when he's on the field, he gives everything he's got.

He'll be a Tapriot. Ugh.

I agree. I actually could care less how much dope these guys smoke.

I would actually be confortable, if I was a GM, drafting either Gregory or Ray based solely on these drug "concerns".

Justin Houston failed a test at the combine. How did that work out for KC?

teegre
04-28-2015, 04:35 PM
I agree. I actually could care less how much dope these guys smoke.

I would actually be confortable, if I was a GM, drafting either Gregory or Ray based solely on these drug "concerns".

Justin Houston failed a test at the combine. How did that work out for KC?

1. Houston went in R3. If Gregory or Ray was there in R2, I'd draft them in a millisecond. In R3, I'd check the calendar to make sure that it wasn't April 1st.

2. I have no problem with weed. I do have a problem with bad decision-making. Gregory KNEW that he was going to be tested, yet still didn't stop smoking weed. Conversely, Ray just happened to get caught with a joint.

As in:
Gregory was being stupid.
Ray was merely being a college student.

SteelerFanInStl
04-28-2015, 05:49 PM
1. Houston went in R3. If Gregory or Ray was there in R2, I'd draft them in a millisecond. In R3, I'd check the calendar to make sure that it wasn't April 1st.

2. I have no problem with weed. I do have a problem with bad decision-making. Gregory KNEW that he was going to be tested, yet still didn't stop smoking weed. Conversely, Ray just happened to get caught with a joint.

As in:
Gregory was being stupid.
Ray was merely being a college student.

Gregory also failed multiple drug tests throughout the season. AFAIK, this was the first time that Ray's ever had any kind of an incident.

hawaiiansteeler
04-28-2015, 07:10 PM
I have no problem with weed. I do have a problem with bad decision-making. Gregory KNEW that he was going to be tested, yet still didn't stop smoking weed. Conversely, Ray just happened to get caught with a joint.

As in:
Gregory was being stupid.
Ray was merely being a college student.

Ray's turf toe bothers me more than him getting busted with a joint in his backpack...

teegre
04-28-2015, 10:42 PM
Ray's turf toe bothers me more than him getting busted with a joint in his backpack...

Indeed.

Steve McNair once played a season with a bevy of injuries (swollen knee, cracked rib, bruised sternum)... and didn't miss one game. The next season, he had turf toe... and missed several games.

SUMMATION:
Turf toe is no joke.

cold-hard-steel
04-29-2015, 07:31 AM
Indeed.

Steve McNair once played a season with a bevy of injuries (swollen knee, cracked rib, bruised sternum)... and didn't miss one game. The next season, he had turf toe... and missed several games.

SUMMATION:
Turf toe is no joke.

Yeah no shit on that . I had turf toe before . Can't say it was from turf though .
Some guy like we need in the first round could no doubt explain it's complications more than i . Jack where are you . We need a #58 .

teegre
04-29-2015, 09:27 AM
Gregory also failed multiple drug tests throughout the season. AFAIK, this was the first time that Ray's ever had any kind of an incident.

Exactly.

Recidivism.

- - - Updated - - -


Yeah no shit on that . I had turf toe before . Can't say it was from turf though .
Some guy like we need in the first round could no doubt explain it's complications more than i . Jack where are you . We need a #58 .

If this draft class can produce a great OLB and a shutdown CB, this defense would be stellar. They are on the cusp. Heyward & Tuitt, plus Shazier, add in those other two... championship(s).

hawaiiansteeler
02-19-2016, 03:40 PM
I agree. I actually could care less how much dope these guys smoke.

I would actually be confortable, if I was a GM, drafting either Gregory or Ray based solely on these drug "concerns".

Justin Houston failed a test at the combine. How did that work out for KC?

Cowboys' Randy Gregory suspended without pay for first four games of 2016

By Jon Machota

Cowboys defensive end Randy Gregory has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. He is still eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games.

Gregory, considered by many to be a top 10 talent in last year's draft, fell to the Cowboys late in the second round after testing positive for marijuana at the NFL scouting combine.

At a news conference last March, Gregory said he had struggled with marijuana use for years.
"I don't wake up every day saying, 'I'd really love to go smoke,'" he said. "It's not a struggle for me every day [now]. In the past, hell yeah, it's been a struggle."

According to the league's substance abuse policy, a four-game suspension is handed out after a fourth failed test.

After recording three sacks in three preseason games, Gregory suffered a high ankle sprain in the season opener that limited him for the remainder of his rookie season. The former Nebraska standout finished with 11 tackles and 16 quarterback pressures in 12 games.

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/02/19/cowboys-randy-gregory-suspended-without-pay-first-four-games-2016