Phil Emery: Developing late-round quarterbacks doesn't work

[VikesRule]

Bears General Manager Phil Emery is not a believer in taking a quarterback late in the draft.

Emery says he has studied the development of quarterbacks in the NFL and found that teams that draft quarterbacks in the late round rarely turn those players into franchise starters.

“I just did a little study. It’s very interesting,” Emery said. “That developmental theory doesn’t hold a whole lot of water. There’s entire classes of quarterbacks, since ’06, I went back and looked at from [Jay Cutler's draft class] on — when people say developmental quarterbacks, OK, so who has gotten developed? There isn’t a single quarterback after the third round since 2006 that has been a long-term starter. So you’re either developing thirds, and most of them have been wiped out of the league. So to get a quality quarterback, you’ve got to draft them high. That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual.

“That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual,” Emery said. “Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round. So that’s where you need to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn’t make that pick.”Source (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/04/phil-emery-developing-late-round-quarterbacks-doesnt-work/)

I agree 100% with him. Everybody brings up Brady as if the exception disproves the rule. To be a successful, longterm QB you need to be drafted in the first or second round (with the rare exceptions like Wilson, Foles, and Brady). "Developmental" QBs just do not seem to ever pan out...

[ALLD]

But drafting a QB in the 1st round is not a guarantee either.

[Mojouw]

Source (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/04/phil-emery-developing-late-round-quarterbacks-doesnt-work/)

I agree 100% with him. Everybody brings up Brady as if the exception disproves the rule. To be a successful, longterm QB you need to be drafted in the first or second round (with the rare exceptions like Wilson, Foles, and Brady). "Developmental" QBs just do not seem to ever pan out...

Yup. Those late round "developmental" guys are not really developmental at all. They are simply talented QB's that the NFL scouting system missed. Brady wasn't really developed, he could simply play in the NFL from the jump. Kapernick, Wilson, etc are also guys that simply had the talent, motivation, and ability to play in the NFL and the league downgraded them for some reason.

Makes you wonder, who else is getting missed and never getting a shot while too many teams recycle the same old crap veterans and failed prospects?

[Dwinsgames]

Yup. Those late round "developmental" guys are not really developmental at all. They are simply talented QB's that the NFL scouting system missed. Brady wasn't really developed, he could simply play in the NFL from the jump. Kapernick, Wilson, etc are also guys that simply had the talent, motivation, and ability to play in the NFL and the league downgraded them for some reason.

Makes you wonder, who else is getting missed and never getting a shot while too many teams recycle the same old crap veterans and failed prospects?


lots of guys ....

not just at QB but all over the place every pos has that issue ....

look not that God aweful long ago the draft was twice as many rounds ( was not twice as many teams ) and we have HoF quality players taken LATE in those drafts , guys taken so late they would not even be UDFAs today they would be pushing carts in walmarts parking lot or flipping burgers at MCdonalds ....


Example in 1974 their where 26 NFL teams and the draft was 17 rounds long 442 players where drafted today we have 32 teams and around 250 players are drafted add in another 150 ( give or take a few ) UDFA signings brings you to 400 total players receive some sort of rookie contract .....

Nearly 50 less players today get a contract via draft and UDFA than in 1974 where drafted .... Donnie Shell was an UDFA in 74 , Today he never gets a phone call

[Steelerette]

While we don't need 16-17 rounds probably anymore, why not, with the next cap increase, push the draft to 10 rounds and the season roster size to 56? Three doesn't sound like much but across the league that's 100 more guys who have a shot, and that many more guys who make it to camp, practice squads, and so on - and I would dare say it would improve the quality of late season and postseason play. A team inclined to carry that one extra WR or Lineman or situational player could keep everyone that much more rested, or have that much more depth when it's down to crunch time.

[Chidi29]

Always said this and totally agree with Emery. "Solid backup" is such a weird term that gets thrown around...no one aspires to be a "solid backup running back" in the NFL...either you have a chance to start and compete or you're going to fail. If you're ceiling is a backup, I don't want you. Not going to help me.

If you're a team, you're in one of two boats.

1. You don't have a franchise QB. Get one. Draft high to do so.

2. You have a franchise QB. Go sign a veteran off the street to be the backup.

"Grooming" is such a frivolous term. Don't learn by holding a clipboard.

[Dwinsgames]

"Grooming" is such a frivolous term. Don't learn by holding a clipboard.

Grooming .... always made me think of a PET .

while I think there is some benefit to sitting a year as a rookie QB , I also think its not in the best interest all the time ...

benefits is learning the playbook over time and slowly being able to digest it , having a birdseye view from the sidelines while not feeling the pressure of having to succeed day 1 , getting comfortable in the new surroundings and the people around you all have benefits ....

However .......

sitting does not get you many reps and it is very difficult to improve while getting rustier by the day .... most starting QBs take 90+ % of the reps after training camp breaks very hard to build any continuity with team mates on the field when you are always on the sidelines

[Count Steeler]

Wonder how Ben's career would have been different if Tommy doesn't get hurt.

Could never understand how holding a clipboard makes you a better QB. Almost a wasted roster spot.

[Dwinsgames]

People talk about the Brady pick but its not the only one , many examples of very good QBs taken far later than pure duds ... that is not to say you shouldn't take your swings when you up at the plate

Ryan Leaf 2nd over all pick

Matt Hasselbeck 187th over all pick

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

[Chidi29]

There's a difference between letting a guy sit for a year to learn the system and then letting him play. When I say "grooming", I mean the guy that won't even have a chance to be a starter until five years down the road. In the meantime, he just collects dust on the sideline. Wasted pick. Why I hated the Landry Jones pick. Anyone think he'll ever be a starter? No. So why take him?

[fansince'76]

Bears General Manager Phil Emery is not a believer in taking a quarterback late in the draft.

When's the last time the Bears had a bona fide franchise QB? Sid Luckman in the '40s? Cutler sure isn't one. And IMO, the primary reason those Bears teams of the '80s only won one Lombardi as opposed to several is because they couldn't seem to do any better than McMahon at QB. So I tend to take any talk about QBs from a Bears executive with a grain of salt.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned here as far as QB development is concerned are the promising QB prospects in the past that have been taken high by God awful teams, getting thrown to the wolves immediately and essentially having their careers ruined before they even started because of it (see: David Carr).

To sum it up, finding a real franchise QB is extremely difficult (if not just downright lucky), and that's why you hold on to them like grim death when you do get one. For every Peyton Manning that comes along, there are literally dozens of Ryan Leafs. Which makes all the "This team sucks anyway, so let's trade Roethlisberger and stock up on draft picks!" talk I've been hearing from a number of Steelers fans over the last year or so all the more laughable.