Receiver could be draft option for Steelers

[stillers4me]

So what's next?

With only wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery unsigned among their key personnel on offense, the Steelers (http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/) likely will concentrate on retooling a declining defense during the offseason.

Still, Ben Roethlisberger probably can't help but wonder what this 20th-ranked offense, for all of its second-half improvement, might look like if he had another elite receiver to throw to besides Antonio Brown.

Clemson's Sammy Watkins could be such a receiver — the Steelers don't care that he's 6-foot and not 6-3 — and the only question might be whether he slides to No. 15, where they choose in the first round May 8.

If he doesn't, Marqise Lee, who had 20 touchdown catches in three seasons at Southern Cal, probably will be there. Again, the Steelers wouldn't care that he's 5-111⁄2, given their success with not-tall receivers...............


Read more: http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/5443207-74/420000-steelers-570000#ixzz2qqj7kYa4

[TMC]

I think WR is a very viable option for the Steelers. In fact, I think they double down at the position like they did with Holmes/Reid (2006), Sanders/Brown (2010), and Wheaton/Brown (2013). The wide receiver position has a bust rate of around 35% in the first round. That climbs to 50% in the 2nd and 63% in the 3rd. It rises slightly as you move farther back. The interesting part about the WR position, while you get 33% of the Pro Bowl players in the first, it holds in the teens through the middle rounds and does not get below 10% until the 6th or so (and that number is old, with Brown making the Pro Bowl this season, it would increase).

I think the strategy of doubling down is pretty savvy. You realize that one is likely to be a bust, but you also back that up with a guy that is likely to contribute and maybe even become a star. In 2006, Reid busted, but Holmes was solid. In 2010, Sanders is okay/solid while Brown became a star. Too early to call the 2013 selections, but it appears that Brown is trending towards the bust and maybe Wheaton becomes a contributor.

I think I would continue to employ that strategy. In watching many of these WRs in this class, there are some significant questions with all. There is an area of each players game that does not translate well to the next level. Watkins caught an extraordinary amount of screens and fades away against physical corners. Lee struggled this season when his role changed. Evans has a limited route tree. Benjamin is similar to Evans and raw. All things that should be very concerning as first round picks. No true physical freak has emerged yet, so the athletic potential of a WR has not surfaced.

Not so sure I would not hold my water, maybe catch a slider in the 2nd and then back that up with another guy in the 4th/5th/6th.

[zulater]

I'm going to copy and paste myself from another thread, since what I said applies equally to this thread.



There's an argument to be made that another weapon will put the offense over the top and make them truly an elite unit. And the offense taking the next step could aid the defense more than any single player available at 15, in as much as getting out to a quick lead puts pressure on opposing offenses. Dictating the terms of the game makes your opponent predictable, and more mistake prone. So if there's the right fit at WR or TE, that could put this team's offense to a higher level, go get him.

[Dwinsgames]

not at 15 .........

at 21-23 after a couple small trade backs for additional 3rd round picks .... sure

[MrPgh]

I'm going to copy and paste myself from another thread, since what I said applies equally to this thread.

Agree with your quote. No matter how well the Steelers draft defensive players this spring, that unit will still be average at best next year no matter what. Better to have one average unit and one great unit rather than two average units.

[Dwinsgames]

not sure why anyone automatically assumes an offensive draft pick in the first round will flourish and make us a great unit and in the same breath say a first round pick spent on the defense changes nothing about that units quality and ability ...

IMO that is very flawed logic

[Psycho Ward 86]

Agree with your quote. No matter how well the Steelers draft defensive players this spring, that unit will still be average at best next year no matter what. Better to have one average unit and one great unit rather than two average units.

you really take dick lebeau for granted if you think its all but a sure thing that the defense will be average no matter what.

[Dwinsgames]

you really take dick lebeau for granted if you think its all but a sure thing that the defense will be average no matter what.

naa he doesn't take him for granted , he is just waiting for another subpar year so he can then condemn Lebeau as he has Haley and Art2 and what better way to assure his next target than for the team to not give him any new weapons on Def and just let the D continue to be under talented and over aged .....

[Steelerette]

We could use a WR and frankly even a TE but I don't see how a big-time WR is a can't miss prospect. Troy Edwards, Limas Sweed anyone? (Though I kind of feel Sweed wasn't given a proper developmental chance, still, where is he in the league now? Nowhere.) And if Edward is stretching it, well I just watched the NFC game. Remember when Crabtree was going to be the next messiah? Well, he's a nice mediocre WR for them but... there's no such thing as a can't-miss, so I'm not sure I buy the premise that a WR can make the offense great immediately where a D-line or Secondary will not change anything. I guess it's true that in general defensive players don't start right away and offense have the better shot to do so. But It's not guaranteed to be the case.

I would probably rate secondary help higher than WR. And I might rate the need at WR kind of close to the need at ILB, NT, DE. WR maybe slightly above those but not high enough above them to break from BPA in favor of a WR.

What I would do is something like this.

1. Louis Nix NT
2. Kyle Fuller CB
3 (comp). Jared Abbrederis WR
4. Ben Gardener DE
5. Caleb Lavey ILB
6. Kenny Ladler S
7. Pat O'Donnell P

Yeah I know a punter, but lock up his rights. Sign a crapload of DL, WR, and TE UDFA...

[Dwinsgames]

We could use a WR and frankly even a TE but I don't see how a big-time WR is a can't miss prospect. Troy Edwards, Limas Sweed anyone? (Though I kind of feel Sweed wasn't given a proper developmental chance, still, where is he in the league now? Nowhere.) And if Edward is stretching it, well I just watched the NFC game. Remember when Crabtree was going to be the next messiah? Well, he's a nice mediocre WR for them but... there's no such thing as a can't-miss, so I'm not sure I buy the premise that a WR can make the offense great immediately where a D-line or Secondary will not change anything. I guess it's true that in general defensive players don't start right away and offense have the better shot to do so. But It's not guaranteed to be the case.

I would probably rate secondary help higher than WR. And I might rate the need at WR kind of close to the need at ILB, NT, DE. WR maybe slightly above those but not high enough above them to break from BPA in favor of a WR.

I agree and said it above a few posts

Def players normally take longer in this system to make an impact and that is where the flawed logic begins ....

CB does not have to be that way if you draft a good one ...

you can forget about the scheme and lock him up 1 on 1 on the outside and let him man cover his guy and play zone around him , and as he gains exp in the system you can expand his role into the zone system .....

where you have issues is with a coverage guy learning the calls on the zone , not in playing it , coverage is coverage verbage and responcibilities are the thing ...

DBs do not fall into as much an issue as LB in learning Lebeaus system anyways so saying they can not help is just ridiculous

[86WARD]

Go up and get Sammy.

[zulater]

you really take dick lebeau for granted if you think its all but a sure thing that the defense will be average no matter what.

I don't take anything for granted, but this is what I know from years of watching the league. A exceptional offense will go a long way towards making a mediocre defense look good. I've seen it for years with the Peyton Manning Colts, and the Tom Brady Patriots. You could even see it with the Packers and the difference in their defensive play when Rodgers was the qb as opposed to anyone else.

Get the lead early and extend it and your opponent loses his ground game. Score early and often and the other team becomes mistake prone and will as often as not beat itself when given the chance if they don't have a top qb.

My opinion, you add a real weapon to the Steelers passing game and this offense could take off. With the added element of a possession back like Bell you can beat teams both ways.

Like I say you put pressure on the opposing offense by scoring early and often, and your defense gets better.You convert 3rd downs and maintain possession with a good ground game, and the other team's offense stays safely on their own sideline.

Now obviously if the BPA at 15 is a defensive stud that can come right in and contribute I'm fine with that too. Obviously we need more able bodies on the defensive side of the ball no matter how good the offense can become.

[GBMelBlount]

I think WR is a very viable option for the Steelers. In fact, I think they double down at the position like they did with Holmes/Reid (2006), Sanders/Brown (2010), and Wheaton/Brown (2013). The wide receiver position has a bust rate of around 35% in the first round. That climbs to 50% in the 2nd and 63% in the 3rd. It rises slightly as you move farther back. The interesting part about the WR position, while you get 33% of the Pro Bowl players in the first, it holds in the teens through the middle rounds and does not get below 10% until the 6th or so (and that number is old, with Brown making the Pro Bowl this season, it would increase).

I think the strategy of doubling down is pretty savvy. You realize that one is likely to be a bust, but you also back that up with a guy that is likely to contribute and maybe even become a star. In 2006, Reid busted, but Holmes was solid. In 2010, Sanders is okay/solid while Brown became a star. Too early to call the 2013 selections, but it appears that Brown is trending towards the bust and maybe Wheaton becomes a contributor.

I think I would continue to employ that strategy. In watching many of these WRs in this class, there are some significant questions with all. There is an area of each players game that does not translate well to the next level. Watkins caught an extraordinary amount of screens and fades away against physical corners. Lee struggled this season when his role changed. Evans has a limited route tree. Benjamin is similar to Evans and raw. All things that should be very concerning as first round picks. No true physical freak has emerged yet, so the athletic potential of a WR has not surfaced.

Not so sure I would not hold my water, maybe catch a slider in the 2nd and then back that up with another guy in the 4th/5th/6th.

Ya, but we already have a top 10 #1 receiver...so I don't see the need to double down....especially if we sign cotchery.

We have several WR's on the team who are developing such as Wheaton...so while I have no problem if and where we grab a receiver I don't think we need two this draft.

[TMC]

Ya, but we already have a top 10 #1 receiver...so I don't see the need to double down....especially if we sign cotchery.

We have several WR's on the team who are developing such as Wheaton...so while I have no problem if and where we grab a receiver I don't think we need two this draft.

You are thinking short term. To me, that is one of the biggest mistakes people make when evaluating the draft. People often talk of "needs". What we "need" this season, when most rookies will come in and sit on their ass this season. You fill those needs with free agents, guys already adjusted to the speed of the game, then you add talent for the future.

I like Cotchery well enough. I am fine with retaining him. The thing is, Cotchery is 31 right now. He will be 32 before the new season starts. At best, they get maybe 2 more seasons out of him. We have Brown as our #1. We have a draft pick in Wheaton we hope develops. Many hold out hope for Moye or Brown, but neither could make much noise or see much playing time because Cotchery kept them on the pine. Now, again, I like Cotchery, but he is a 31-year old journeyman that has broke 1000 yards once in a ten year career. He should be a stop-gap guy until the younger guys show something. To this point, they have not shown anything.

What if he leaves after this season and you draft 1 WR, say in the 3rd. Say either that guy or Wheaton fail to make it. Then, you have Brown and one other guy.....nothing behind them.

And, 35% of all first round WRs bust. That number is about 70% in the 4th round. We need a contributor. You dramatically increase your chances of getting one if you double down. And, say both work out, like Sanders and Brown did. Then, you have Brown, Wheaton, and both draft picks. I would be thrilled to go 5-wide with those 4 and Miller or Bell in some instances.

Our WR cupboard is pretty bare. I just do not want to count on Cotchery as being the guy while we flounder around with the position for a couple seasons. If they spend a 2nd/3rd on a WR, going back in the 5th/6th is not a big price to pay for some security.

[Mojouw]

The thing about drafting a WR is that the Steelers need a particular skill set to really make the whole take the offense to the next level thing work. They need a someone with the skills of say a Demaryius Thomas. Brown does his best work short to intermediate, so does Cotchery. Wheaton may be able to get deep, but he is not that big. Even if they brought back Sanders, he has the same skill profile as Brown and Wheaton. I am not saying that all of those players either are not or can not put up amazing #'s at WR. I am just not a fan of drafting another WR in the same mold.

Now drafting a physical, large bodied, WR....that is another story.

[GBMelBlount]

The thing about drafting a WR is that the Steelers need a particular skill set to really make the whole take the offense to the next level thing work. They need a someone with the skills of say a Demaryius Thomas. Brown does his best work short to intermediate, so does Cotchery. Wheaton may be able to get deep, but he is not that big. Even if they brought back Sanders, he has the same skill profile as Brown and Wheaton. I am not saying that all of those players either are not or can not put up amazing #'s at WR. I am just not a fan of drafting another WR in the same mold.

Now drafting a physical, large bodied, WR....that is another story.

I think you mentioned this before.

It makes perfect sense for your receivers to be complementary.

A big physical receiver would be just that.

[steelreserve]

Yes, it would be nice to add another quality receiver assuming Sanders is gone, but we have way, way more important needs to fill. Every single phase of the defense is hurting for at least one quality player.

"But taking a defensive player won't do anything to fix the defense NEXT YEAR!!!" people are saying. "Rookies don't contribute right away! The defense will still be old!" Well, OK. Let's just think about that for a minute. According to that logic, it'll be two years before we get any returns from defensive draft picks ... so the smart thing to do is put it off even longer so we don't get any returns for three or four years? Sorry, but the thought of a future in which Ike Taylor and Larry Foote are still starting for us in 2017 and we still have no nose tackle - well, that's just not very appealing.

If a difference-maker is available at either DB or NT, we really need to jump on that. ILB depth would be nice too, but that's something we probably ought to see if we can do something about in the middle rounds or with a mid-priced free agent. We can't afford any more linebackers that we take with a high pick and then pay for it out the wazoo with a $50 million megadeal a couple years later. We have too much of that going on as it is.

[TMC]

The thing about drafting a WR is that the Steelers need a particular skill set to really make the whole take the offense to the next level thing work. They need a someone with the skills of say a Demaryius Thomas. Brown does his best work short to intermediate, so does Cotchery. Wheaton may be able to get deep, but he is not that big. Even if they brought back Sanders, he has the same skill profile as Brown and Wheaton. I am not saying that all of those players either are not or can not put up amazing #'s at WR. I am just not a fan of drafting another WR in the same mold.

Now drafting a physical, large bodied, WR....that is another story.

Not really. Ben Roethlisberger's top 3 passing seasons as a pro were 2009, 2011, and 2013.
-In 2009, his top 2 WRs were Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. Mike Wallace was the 3rd guy. Mike Wallace was the tallest of the 3 at 6003. Ward was measured at 5115 prior to the draft. Holmes was 5105.
-In 2011, his top 3 WRs were Antonio Brown, Hines Ward, and Mike Wallace. Brown is 5101.
-In 2013, his top 3 WRs were Brown, Sanders, and Cotchery. Sanders is 5107. Cotchery is 6004.

Ben has not had a WR over 6'1" in his 3 most prolific passing seasons. While I am all for a bigger WR, seldom do you draft a guy over 6'2" and have him become an off the bench type role playing WR. They are usually good and start or falter completely. They do not offer much as a special teams player. They become very limited, where a WR that is smaller can help in various areas and stick on the roster. Marcus Wheaton is 5110. They also drafted Justin Brown, who is 6031, but I do not have much faith in a big, slower WR that has below average change of direction skills.

I guess my point is this, you cannot go into the draft saying we must come away with this absolute style of player. I would much rather have a guy under 6' that can play (like Antonio Brown) than a guy over 6'2" that cannot (like Limas Sweed). While physical mismatches are nice, the Patriots and other teams (Colts) were able to put more than one excellent under 6'2" WR on the field and stretch the defense vertically and horizontally because their WRs can run a full route tree.

If Wheaton turns into a solid starter and we could find a great slot guy, like an ARE or Wes Welker, I would love to see Ben stand in the pocket and dump the ball on crossing routes all day like Brady does to us. It keeps Ben upright. It extends his career. We have already watched him utilize Bell as a receiving back.

If we can find that big WR, great. If not, we still should look to add weapons.

[Mojouw]

Not really. Ben Roethlisberger's top 3 passing seasons as a pro were 2009, 2011, and 2013.
-In 2009, his top 2 WRs were Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. Mike Wallace was the 3rd guy. Mike Wallace was the tallest of the 3 at 6003. Ward was measured at 5115 prior to the draft. Holmes was 5105.
-In 2011, his top 3 WRs were Antonio Brown, Hines Ward, and Mike Wallace. Brown is 5101.
-In 2013, his top 3 WRs were Brown, Sanders, and Cotchery. Sanders is 5107. Cotchery is 6004.

Ben has not had a WR over 6'1" in his 3 most prolific passing seasons. While I am all for a bigger WR, seldom do you draft a guy over 6'2" and have him become an off the bench type role playing WR. They are usually good and start or falter completely. They do not offer much as a special teams player. They become very limited, where a WR that is smaller can help in various areas and stick on the roster. Marcus Wheaton is 5110. They also drafted Justin Brown, who is 6031, but I do not have much faith in a big, slower WR that has below average change of direction skills.

I guess my point is this, you cannot go into the draft saying we must come away with this absolute style of player. I would much rather have a guy under 6' that can play (like Antonio Brown) than a guy over 6'2" that cannot (like Limas Sweed). While physical mismatches are nice, the Patriots and other teams (Colts) were able to put more than one excellent under 6'2" WR on the field and stretch the defense vertically and horizontally because their WRs can run a full route tree.

If Wheaton turns into a solid starter and we could find a great slot guy, like an ARE or Wes Welker, I would love to see Ben stand in the pocket and dump the ball on crossing routes all day like Brady does to us. It keeps Ben upright. It extends his career. We have already watched him utilize Bell as a receiving back.

If we can find that big WR, great. If not, we still should look to add weapons.

Excellent points. I was just thinking that with the amount of holes on this team, does drafting a WR, particularly in the first 3 rounds, that does not introduce a new set of skills to the position group really make sense as a utilization of limited resources (draft picks)?

I think more important than height, is a guy that is "open" as long as the ball is thrown near him. Ward was able to do this and he wasn't too tall. But he was physical and used his body well as a shield. I certainly didn't make myself clear in my earlier comments.

[Steelerette]

There's no Keyshawn Johnson in this draft. That's about what we need to complement what we have.

I would try to trade down and if nobody bites, select Nix (unless Haha Dix falls to us).

If we can trade down, then sure pick a WR at that point and fill in some other gaps with the acquired picks.

I'm not adverse to the notion of double-dipping on WR but this is supposed to be a very deep class. If we grab a WR in the 2nd or 3rd I don't see the big difference between grabbing that second WR in the 5th/6th, and grabbing a bunch of UDFA WR. Especially considering that Pittsburgh will be one of the more attractive spots for UDFA WR and RBs given our "bare cupboard" so to speak. So if you get an incredible value WR in the 6th then take him I guess, but don't take one just for the sake of taking one there.

[TMC]

Excellent points. I was just thinking that with the amount of holes on this team, does drafting a WR, particularly in the first 3 rounds, that does not introduce a new set of skills to the position group really make sense as a utilization of limited resources (draft picks)?

I think more important than height, is a guy that is "open" as long as the ball is thrown near him. Ward was able to do this and he wasn't too tall. But he was physical and used his body well as a shield. I certainly didn't make myself clear in my earlier comments.

Well, I have taken a long look at all the "bigger" and early WRs in this draft. I do not think there is a WR I would draft in the top 25. That is my opinion. I think they have massive questions which leads to big bust potential. Do I think guys like Lee, Watkins, and Evans last outside the top 25? Probably not, so that means I won't be drafting those guys. Just me. So, I have spent more time looking at the receivers that fall into the 2nd and beyond. I think if you draft a WR in the 2nd, he does not have to be a 6'2" or better guy, but he still needs that skill set that gives him 2nd round value. I mean, if I could land a young Anquan Boldin (physical, excellent hands, chain mover) in the 2nd (he is only 6'1"), would I not be wise to take that guy? What if it were a DeSean Jackson (good hands, special teams bonus, plus speed)? I think the key is that they have to have the value.

I have been looking hard at the middle and later round guys. That is why I state doubling down may be the better strategy. If you spend your 3rd round comp pick and then come back in the 5th or 6th, even if they lacked the 6'2" size, what if you land a guy like Jared Abbrederis. He is 6'1". He is not thick. He has good not great speed. He has excellent hands. He runs excellent routes and has good burst out of his breaks. He gets open on short and intermediate routes. Sells them and can slip behind the defense. He can play inside or outside. Then, say you come back in the 5th/6th and nab a guy like Cody Hoffman (BYU) or LaDanian Washington (Missouri). Hoffman is a bigger WR. He has soft hands. Surprising burst for a bigger WR. Does not have great speed but can make catches in traffic. Flashes good skills. Washington is a burner. He has height. Very similar to Nate Washington in a lot of ways. That gives you a fleet of WRs and a variety of skills and does not cost you your 1st round pick. You have spent a 3rd and a 5th to secure two WRs with different skill sets and added depth to your WR corp, developmental depth for the day Cotchery is done.

If a plus player is not there at #15, I am fine with moving that pick down, even into the second, and loading up on picks from 30-60, where the true value of this draft may lie.

[Mojouw]

Well, I have taken a long look at all the "bigger" and early WRs in this draft. I do not think there is a WR I would draft in the top 25. That is my opinion. I think they have massive questions which leads to big bust potential. Do I think guys like Lee, Watkins, and Evans last outside the top 25? Probably not, so that means I won't be drafting those guys. Just me. So, I have spent more time looking at the receivers that fall into the 2nd and beyond. I think if you draft a WR in the 2nd, he does not have to be a 6'2" or better guy, but he still needs that skill set that gives him 2nd round value. I mean, if I could land a young Anquan Boldin (physical, excellent hands, chain mover) in the 2nd (he is only 6'1"), would I not be wise to take that guy? What if it were a DeSean Jackson (good hands, special teams bonus, plus speed)? I think the key is that they have to have the value.

I have been looking hard at the middle and later round guys. That is why I state doubling down may be the better strategy. If you spend your 3rd round comp pick and then come back in the 5th or 6th, even if they lacked the 6'2" size, what if you land a guy like Jared Abbrederis. He is 6'1". He is not thick. He has good not great speed. He has excellent hands. He runs excellent routes and has good burst out of his breaks. He gets open on short and intermediate routes. Sells them and can slip behind the defense. He can play inside or outside. Then, say you come back in the 5th/6th and nab a guy like Cody Hoffman (BYU) or LaDanian Washington (Missouri). Hoffman is a bigger WR. He has soft hands. Surprising burst for a bigger WR. Does not have great speed but can make catches in traffic. Flashes good skills. Washington is a burner. He has height. Very similar to Nate Washington in a lot of ways. That gives you a fleet of WRs and a variety of skills and does not cost you your 1st round pick. You have spent a 3rd and a 5th to secure two WRs with different skill sets and added depth to your WR corp, developmental depth for the day Cotchery is done.

If a plus player is not there at #15, I am fine with moving that pick down, even into the second, and loading up on picks from 30-60, where the true value of this draft may lie.

Interesting post. Seems that a round 1 trade down is an emerging consensus around here. I wonder if the Steelers could skip wideout all together this draft by getting Nicks and Cotchery signed off the FA market. That would give them Brown and Nicks on the outside, Cotchery and Wheaton inside. Not much beyond that, but maybe something shakes loose in the post draft market?

[LLT]

I think that what gets lost in the mix...because we ALL would like first round graded players at each of our needs...is that we have a legitimate #1 reciever. The same cannot be said for other positions. There is a very good possibility that we will lose a starting safety and a starting cornerback in this offseason. We have someone who may potentially replace Clark but NO ONE on the roster who can replace Taylor. Gay and Brown are sub-par by any stretch of the imagination.

This is a clear case of the need to want equation. Our weakest position is the secondary. Finding a CB that can play on the opposite side of Cortez is clearly going to take priority over finding a #2 or #3 reciever.

1) This draft is deep at WR, with some of the better value being found in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.
2) The front office has shown that they can find talent at the position outside of the 1st round
3) A Cornerback that can start on day one is probably not going to be found outside the 1st round.

[TMC]

A Cornerback that can start on day one is probably not going to be found outside the 1st round.

Hard to say. Last season, four cornerbacks were drafted in the first round. Milliner was the first CB taken and started 12 games, but he really struggled as a rookie. DJ Hayden was selected next, he started 2 games. Trufant started 16 games for the Falcons and Xavier Rhodes started 6 for the Vikes.

Jonathan Banks was taken in the 2nd, started 16 games for the Bucs. There are a couple others that contributed and started multiple games in the 2nd and 3rd round. I guess my question would be, did talent put them on the field as first round picks or did need necessitate them being forced to play? In the case of Milliner, it would almost have to be need, because he struggled bad.

I still think it is a mistake to allow need to dictate where you pick. I would much rather see the Steelers dip into free agency and bring back a journeyman at the position before they forced a young player that is not ready. Now, that does not mean I am opposed to a cornerback in the first IF the right guy is there. I just do not think you can pigeonhole your picks based on need and that is especially true in the first, where you have your best chance of landing a potential franchise player.

[steelreserve]

This is a clear case of the need to want equation. Our weakest position is the secondary. Finding a CB that can play on the opposite side of Cortez is clearly going to take priority over finding a #2 or #3 reciever.

1) This draft is deep at WR, with some of the better value being found in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.
2) The front office has shown that they can find talent at the position outside of the 1st round
3) A Cornerback that can start on day one is probably not going to be found outside the 1st round.

That was probably the best post I've seen explaining why WR is such a silly idea. And I'll add to that: There are certain positions that are especially difficult to draft, and the real top-level talent is usually gone by the first half of the first round - beyond that, you're basically just guessing no matter whether you pick them in late Round 1 or late Round 5, and you hope you get lucky on one pick out of three. CB is one of those positions, and I'd also add NT, LT and QB. Funny thing, we've had one pick in the high first round for the past decade, which was Ben Roethlisberger, and what do you know, our biggest needs are exactly the other positions on that list and none of them have really been "addressed" for over a decade.

For every position other than CB, NT, LT and QB, you can usually find top players all the way through the end of the first round unless it's a bad year. So on one of the rare occasions where we pick in the top half, it would be downright foolish to squander it on a position that you can fill with a blue-chip prospect in any old draft. QB is not a need - and since we already have THREE young OT prospects on the roster who were either highly drafted or pleasantly surprising, LT had fucking BETTER not be a need - so unless literally all of the top talent at CB and NT is off the board, I will be extremely disappointed if we don't use the opportunity to take one of those. I also hope we don't waste this unusual chance by trading down and resigning ourselves to more rolls of the dice at those positions so we can draft the non-difficult ones.

[LLT]

Hard to say. Last season, four cornerbacks were drafted in the first round. Milliner was the first CB taken and started 12 games, but he really struggled as a rookie. DJ Hayden was selected next, he started 2 games. Trufant started 16 games for the Falcons and Xavier Rhodes started 6 for the Vikes.

Jonathan Banks was taken in the 2nd, started 16 games for the Bucs. There are a couple others that contributed and started multiple games in the 2nd and 3rd round. I guess my question would be, did talent put them on the field as first round picks or did need necessitate them being forced to play? In the case of Milliner, it would almost have to be need, because he struggled bad.

I still think it is a mistake to allow need to dictate where you pick. I would much rather see the Steelers dip into free agency and bring back a journeyman at the position before they forced a young player that is not ready. Now, that does not mean I am opposed to a cornerback in the first IF the right guy is there. I just do not think you can pigeonhole your picks based on need and that is especially true in the first, where you have your best chance of landing a potential franchise player.

The Steelers have always used a Need/Want formula when drafting. Simply put...they put several players and positions into specific draft spots. (ie top ten...10-20...20-32 If two or more of those equally ranked players are available when we draft we take the best player available according to our board AND that Need/Want formula. (For instance...they are NOT going to draft a QB with that first pick regardless who is on the board because our Need isnt great enough there to ignore a need elsewhere)
All things being equal... I dont think that there is a WR who ranks far enough above Dennard, that would make us believe he may be the best player available, if Dennard is still on the board.

So...no...not on need alone.

[Dwinsgames]

That was probably the best post I've seen explaining why WR is such a silly idea. And I'll add to that: There are certain positions that are especially difficult to draft, and the real top-level talent is usually gone by the first half of the first round - beyond that, you're basically just guessing no matter whether you pick them in late Round 1 or late Round 5, and you hope you get lucky on one pick out of three. CB is one of those positions, and I'd also add NT, LT and QB. Funny thing, we've had one pick in the high first round for the past decade, which was Ben Roethlisberger, and what do you know, our biggest needs are exactly the other positions on that list and none of them have really been "addressed" for over a decade.

For every position other than CB, NT, LT and QB, you can usually find top players all the way through the end of the first round unless it's a bad year. So on one of the rare occasions where we pick in the top half, it would be downright foolish to squander it on a position that you can fill with a blue-chip prospect in any old draft. QB is not a need - and since we already have THREE young OT prospects on the roster who were either highly drafted or pleasantly surprising, LT had fucking BETTER not be a need - so unless literally all of the top talent at CB and NT is off the board, I will be extremely disappointed if we don't use the opportunity to take one of those. I also hope we don't waste this unusual chance by trading down and resigning ourselves to more rolls of the dice at those positions so we can draft the non-difficult ones.

well Nix is not a top 15 talent so you just selected CB by default , that being said there is only 1 whom fits the description ( and that is at the very least semi debatable as this is a weak CB draft at the top end and strong through the middle )

so while Dennard may be the best the board has to offer when considering past draft boards and the CB pos he may well be the 3rd or 4th best prospect ...

for me I am not sure I want to spend the 15th over all selection on a guy who in other drafts would be the 3rd or 4th best option at the same Pos ...

I also do not see much difference in Dennard and say Gilbert ( who should be available at the bottom of the first , an then not a ton of difference moving down even more to say Fuller or Perifoy middle of the second )
now perhaps you understand my logic for trading back

[LLT]

well Nix is not a top 15 talent so you just selected CB by default , that being said there is only 1 whom fits the description ( and that is at the very least semi debatable as this is a weak CB draft at the top end and strong through the middle )

so while Dennard may be the best the board has to offer when considering past draft boards and the CB pos he may well be the 4rd or 4th best prospect ...

for me I am not sure I want to spend the 15th over all selection on a guy who in other drafts would be the 3rd or 4th best option at the same Pos ...

I also do not see much difference in Dennard and say Gilbert ( who should be available at the bottom of the first , an then not a ton of difference moving down even more to say Fuller or Perifoy middle of the second )
now perhaps you understand my logic for trading back

Although I dont agree with your assessment of Dennard (I truly think he is legit)..I absolutely agree with the thought of trading down if Dennard is not on the board. Not as sure if Gilbert is "day one ready", but I think he will be a very good CB in the end.

If not...AND...if we lose Worilds and Woodley...I would look at OLB #15 if Barr or Mack were available.

Again...I base this on the fact that I think all these players I am mentioning are as good as any of the recievers that will be available at #15 ...and...the fact that the draft is deep in WR this year.

[Dwinsgames]

Although I dont agree with your assessment of Dennard (I truly think he is legit)..I absolutely agree with the thought of trading down if Dennard is not on the board. Not as sure if Gilbert is "day one ready", but I think he will be a very good CB in the end.

If not...AND...if we lose Worilds and Woodley...I would look at OLB #15 if Barr or Mack were available.

Again...I base this on the fact that I think all these players I am mentioning are as good as any of the recievers that will be available at #15 ...and...the fact that the draft is deep in WR this year.


I think there is a good chance Barr or Mack will be on the board because of all the legit Tackles in this draft will consume 4-5 of the picks prior to 15 and another 4 QBs could very well come off the board as well so considering 8-9 picks ( if I am correct are spent on just those 2 pos. that only leaves a half dozen at most for all other pos before we pick )

so lets say

4 QBs go in top 14 picks
4 tackles go in top 14 picks
Clowney goes top 14
Sammy Watkins
Ebron
Jernigan


That is 12 players leaving HAHA Dix, Mosley , Dennard ,Mack , Barr , Lee , Evans, Amaro , Pryor to fill 3 spots ( and toss in an odd Tackle or QB still potentially ) before we select ...

really good chance at one of the premier FS's , OLB's , or your boy Dennard ...

I think this pick has to be traded back or spent on the defensive side of the football

[LLT]

I think there is a good chance Barr or Mack will be on the board because of all the legit Tackles in this draft will consume 4-5 of the picks prior to 15 and another 4 QBs could very well come off the board as well so considering 8-9 picks ( if I am correct are spent on just those 2 pos. that only leaves a half dozen at most for all other pos before we pick )

so lets say

4 QBs go in top 14 picks
4 tackles go in top 14 picks
Clowney goes top 14
Sammy Watkins
Ebron
Jernigan


That is 12 players leaving HAHA Dix, Mosley , Dennard ,Mack , Barr , Lee , Evans, Amaro , Pryor to fill 3 spots ( and toss in an odd Tackle or QB still potentially ) before we select ...

really good chance at one of the premier FS's , OLB's , or your boy Dennard ...

I think this pick has to be traded back or spent on the defensive side of the football

Totally agree.

[st33lersguy]

That is 12 players leaving HAHA Dix, Mosley , Dennard ,Mack , Barr , Lee , Evans, Amaro , Pryor to fill 3 spots ( and toss in an odd Tackle or QB still potentially ) before we select ...

really good chance at one of the premier FS's , OLB's , or your boy Dennard ...

I think this pick has to be traded back or spent on the defensive side of the football

If Clinton-Dix or Dennard were on the board and the Steelers opted instead for WR, I'd be upset

[TMC]

The Steelers have always used a Need/Want formula when drafting. Simply put...they put several players and positions into specific draft spots. (ie top ten...10-20...20-32 If two or more of those equally ranked players are available when we draft we take the best player available according to our board AND that Need/Want formula. (For instance...they are NOT going to draft a QB with that first pick regardless who is on the board because our Need isnt great enough there to ignore a need elsewhere)
All things being equal... I dont think that there is a WR who ranks far enough above Dennard, that would make us believe he may be the best player available, if Dennard is still on the board.

So...no...not on need alone.

Not exactly sure what you mean when you say need/want formula. If they draft a guy and it is not a need, it is w a want, but that want would certainly probably be the BPA (in their eyes). Prior to getting in this salary cap mess, the Steelers would use free agency to backfill all the roster holes prior to the draft. They would sign guys they expected to be, at least, a reasonable starter. They did this so they entered the draft not being forced to place need over BPA.

Lately, they have had cap issues and allowed the draft to be driven by need. It has bitten them in quite a few drafts. Now, I get that they will not draft a QB in the first round, but the Steelers also eliminate positions. I would doubt that the first or second round pick this year will be spent on a QB, RB, or TE, regardless of whom is on the board. I expect Heath to get an extension and they have Spaeth for another season. Ben is here and Gradkowski is behind him. they just drafted Bell and he worked out well. If they retain Worilds, Jones, and Woodley, the may not desire to draft an OLB.

My stance is, I get not spending on positions like QB and RB. Even though you appear stocked at TE and OLB, I would not rule them out IF the right player was there. Do you pass on Kahlil Mack, who could be a franchise pass rusher, to draft an average WR or cornerback?

In looking at the prospects in this draft, there just are not that many that appear to have the goods to be considered elite players. You have, maybe two OTs and that about sums up the OL. I do not see a true elite skill position guy either. On defense, there are a handful of pass rushers (DEs and OLBs), probably Mosley inside, and some safeties. Very slim at the top. In looking at the corners (which I did tonight), I noticed that 9 of the top 10 rated corners are 5'11"-6'1" and 190-200 pounds. None run a blistering 40. None truly show elite COD in their game. There are some questions about each player's game as none are complete guys. Dennard plays a ton of press man (as does Gilbert), but neither jam well and will often allow the WR to get even. Long speed is an issue and I question their ability to recover if a guy like Wallace beats them off the line. They do not play off man well either. Both are decent in zone. I guess my thing is, these guys are not physical specimens and they do not possess the complete skills of a corner that is scheme diverse. Is that really worthy of a high pick or would it be smarter to move that pick down and get a 2nd/3rd selections for the move where you lessen the blow of a bad selection.

[Dwinsgames]

Not exactly sure what you mean when you say need/want formula. If they draft a guy and it is not a need, it is w a want, but that want would certainly probably be the BPA (in their eyes). Prior to getting in this salary cap mess, the Steelers would use free agency to backfill all the roster holes prior to the draft. They would sign guys they expected to be, at least, a reasonable starter. They did this so they entered the draft not being forced to place need over BPA.

Lately, they have had cap issues and allowed the draft to be driven by need. It has bitten them in quite a few drafts. Now, I get that they will not draft a QB in the first round, but the Steelers also eliminate positions. I would doubt that the first or second round pick this year will be spent on a QB, RB, or TE, regardless of whom is on the board. I expect Heath to get an extension and they have Spaeth for another season. Ben is here and Gradkowski is behind him. they just drafted Bell and he worked out well. If they retain Worilds, Jones, and Woodley, the may not desire to draft an OLB.

My stance is, I get not spending on positions like QB and RB. Even though you appear stocked at TE and OLB, I would not rule them out IF the right player was there. Do you pass on Kahlil Mack, who could be a franchise pass rusher, to draft an average WR or cornerback?

In looking at the prospects in this draft, there just are not that many that appear to have the goods to be considered elite players. You have, maybe two OTs and that about sums up the OL. I do not see a true elite skill position guy either. On defense, there are a handful of pass rushers (DEs and OLBs), probably Mosley inside, and some safeties. Very slim at the top. In looking at the corners (which I did tonight), I noticed that 9 of the top 10 rated corners are 5'11"-6'1" and 190-200 pounds. None run a blistering 40. None truly show elite COD in their game. There are some questions about each player's game as none are complete guys. Dennard plays a ton of press man (as does Gilbert), but neither jam well and will often allow the WR to get even. Long speed is an issue and I question their ability to recover if a guy like Wallace beats them off the line. They do not play off man well either. Both are decent in zone. I guess my thing is, these guys are not physical specimens and they do not possess the complete skills of a corner that is scheme diverse. Is that really worthy of a high pick or would it be smarter to move that pick down and get a 2nd/3rd selections for the move where you lessen the blow of a bad selection.


I do not agree with your assessment of the OTs I think their is 4 high quality LT prospects worthy of a top 15 pick and 2 or 3 more that are first round capable but that will depend on how the draft shakes out ....

I do agree 100% on your assessment of the CBs and I do not see ( and have been saying as much ) that much difference in the top CB and the 4th or 5th CB in this draft the differences are almost negligible for me , in other words the next shutdown corner the league sees in my opinion will not come from this draft class ... that being said there are some potentially good corners in the draft but as you stated none that make you sit up and say DAYUM he is something special ( not for me anyways )

[MrPgh]

you really take dick lebeau for granted if you think its all but a sure thing that the defense will be average no matter what.

Remind me again how rookies generally do in a LeBeau defense their first year (assuming they aren't on the bench)?

[steelreserve]

Remind me again how rookies generally do in a LeBeau defense their first year (assuming they aren't on the bench)?

Assuming the player is any good, there are two positions where they could contribute quickly if they can do one straightforward job well: CB (cover a receiver) or NT (just be a real load to deal with). No, that's not the entirety of either position, but I would expect them to improve even more as they gain experience with the full scheme. A corner could even be a guy who starts out mostly as a nickel this year and moves up later. What we can't do is wait another year with no likely candidate for an eventual second starter; then when we do take one he'll be that much more inexperienced. Ideally, I'd have us take Nix in round 1 and a CB in round 2, though things rarely if ever go that way.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Remind me again how rookies generally do in a LeBeau defense their first year (assuming they aren't on the bench)?

you are making the assumption that a rookie is needed to step in right away to make this defense from mediocre to good. where the hell do you see a rookie starting on defense next year? i see none. if anyone can transform a defense over night, its dick lebeau.

[MrPgh]

you are making the assumption that a rookie is needed to step in right away to make this defense from mediocre to good. where the hell do you see a rookie starting on defense next year? i see none. if anyone can transform a defense over night, its dick lebeau.

If that ends up being true, then there might not be much reason to be optimistic for the defense to grow at all next year. The Steelers had a very average defense last year. You thinking playing some of those same guys will make the defense better how?

I certainly wouldn't expect a few rookies to thrive right away, especially in a LeBeau defense. But I would take their upside and potential over some of the very average players the Steelers have on defense, even if that means the offense having to carry the team for most of the year.

[steelreserve]

I don't get why people (lots of them, not just in this thread) make a big deal about "We shouldn't take a defensive player in the draft, because in this system, they're not going to help the defense in their first year!"

Which is kind of not good logic, since if you don't take them now, all you're doing is guaranteeing no one is going to help the defense for at least TWO years. How is that better?

The fact is that this is not a championship team right now, so we can stop hanging on to the idea that we'll somehow make one move like picking up an additional receiver and suddenly be in he Super Bowl. A lot of the reason we are where we are is because of the defense, so ... yeah, you gotta start there.

[Psycho Ward 86]

If that ends up being true, then there might not be much reason to be optimistic for the defense to grow at all next year. The Steelers had a very average defense last year. You thinking playing some of those same guys will make the defense better how?

I certainly wouldn't expect a few rookies to thrive right away, especially in a LeBeau defense. But I would take their upside and potential over some of the very average players the Steelers have on defense, even if that means the offense having to carry the team for most of the year.

looks like someone didnt read the last sentence. theres certainly reason to be optimistic. Cortez allen grew every season: solid rookie year, developed into the best nickel corner in the NFL his 2nd season and looked phenomenal in the games he started at the end of the year. This year, while he didnt play well, he was injured, so im willing to give a young, rapidly improving player the benefit of the doubt. cam heyward didnt start at the beginning of the season for whatever dumb reason, but looked like a true budding superstar once he did. jason worilds, similiar in his emergence, but did it while fighting some injuries. Al woods looked pretty good at DE. carnell lake thought shamarko was a surefire 1st round pick if not for his height. Theres plenty of reason for optimism.

and above all else, dick lebeau can bring the most out of his players.

[Mojouw]

Ah. Hell, they could just pull another "typical" move and re-sign Santonio. Just don't let him and Mike Adams room together on the road.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3635/santonio-holmes

- - - Updated - - -

Also, for what it is worth, there have been a few rookies that have impacted on D right away in the Capers-Lebeau style system. Just off the top of my head and with a bit of google searching:

Chad Brown
Casey Hampton
Kendrell Bell
Jarvis Jones (he started and played a bunch of snaps for a rookie)
Shamarko Thomas
Woodley (had four sacks as a situational pass rusher his rookie year)
Polamalu (wasn't pretty but he made a few plays and saw the field)
mcFadden played a bit in a situational role his 1st year (I think)
Chris Hope same as McFadden
Larry Foote started a few games -- don't remember the situation
Chad Scott played a pretty good # of snaps his rookie year

Now, did all of these guys blow up their rookie year and make a massive impact? Of course not. Be interesting to see what happens this off-season as Lebeau will likely have to get multiple rookies and/or inexperienced guys ready to contribute. Typically the Steelers defense has been loaded enough that this wasn't necessary. Time to see if the scheme really can be taught to young players.

[steelreserve]

Ah. Hell, they could just pull another "typical" move and re-sign Santonio. Just don't let him and Mike Adams room together on the road.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3635/santonio-holmes

Wow, his career really went to shit after the change of scenery and QBs who couldn't throw. Ordinarily, that type of situation would be right up our alley, since it's exactly where you can find a player on the cheap who might still make an impact. Given the way his first stint ended, though, I would seriously doubt this particular reunion is in the cards.



mcFadden played a bit in a situational role his 1st year (I think)

He definitely did. In particular, in the 2005 Super Bowl season, he saved the game for us against the Colts in the playoffs. After the Bettis fumble/"The Tackle" play, and before the missed field goal to end the game, a lot of people forget that the Colts took a shot at the end zone and McFadden made an awesome play to break up the pass. I thought for sure we were screwed and it was either going to be a touchdown or pass interference and the ball on the 1, but he somehow defended it, and cleanly. I think that was a big reason he ended up becoming an eventual starter and subsequently drawing the interest from other teams that lured him away. I still can't decide whether we were lucky we didn't pay to keep him since he played like crap after that, or whether going to the Cardinals is what caused him to start playing like crap, and he was really the unlucky one.

[Aussie_steeler]

I'll play ( usually only play in the draft section)

If you analyse the data available ( past drafts cross referenced against contract expiry) some patterns begin to appear.

1. Steelers alternate the first round each year between O and D. ( 2014 is O)
2. Look two years ahead to see what free agents you will likely have to replace
3. Set a Needs / Wants board and stick to it.
4. Draft a junior if possible.

Key free agents in 2015
Troy Polamalu (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Troy Polamalu&Position=S&Team=Steelers) (replaced with the 3rd round pick of 2014 draft used last year via trade --- Shamarko Thomas)
Ike Taylor (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Ike Taylor&Position=CB&Team=Steelers) ( needs replacing)
Heath Miller (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Heath Miller &Position=TE&Team=Steelers) ( needs replacing)
Maurkice Pouncey (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Maurkice Pouncey&Position=C&Team=Steelers) ( Contract 2)
Cameron Heyward (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Cameron Heyward&Position=34DE&Team=Steelers) ( Contract 2)
Shaun Suisham (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Shaun Suisham&Position=K&Team=Steelers) ( he is a kicker. don't build teams around kickers)
Matt Spaeth (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Matt Spaeth&Position=TE&Team=Steelers) ( backup)
Marcus Gilbert (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Marcus Gilbert&Position=RT&Team=Steelers) ( Mike Adams)
Kion Wilson (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Kion Wilson&Position=ILB&Team=Steelers) (develop)
Curtis Brown (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Curtis Brown&Position=CB&Team=Steelers) ( gone)
Cortez Allen (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Cortez Allen&Position=CB&Team=Steelers) ( Contract 2)
Chris Carter (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Chris Carter&Position=34OLB&Team=Steelers) ( gone)


Using that logic I see only a few scenarios.

1. Any Defensive player ranked in the 0 -10 tier by the steelers still on the board ( Barr, Mack, Dennard??)
2. Ebron (jnr TE) if placed in tier 10 -20 by the steelers
3. Amaro (jnr TE) if placed in tier 10 - 20 by the steelers
4. Any WR ranked 0 - 10 by steelers ( Watkins, ????)


Eric Ebron 6'4 245 TE.
Plays like a slot receiver.
Can block.
Two birds, one stone

[Mojouw]

I'll play ( usually only play in the draft section)

If you analyse the data available ( past drafts cross referenced against contract expiry) some patterns begin to appear.

1. Steelers alternate the first round each year between O and D. ( 2014 is O)
2. Look two years ahead to see what free agents you will likely have to replace
3. Set a Needs / Wants board and stick to it.
4. Draft a junior if possible.

Key free agents in 2015
Troy Polamalu (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Troy Polamalu&Position=S&Team=Steelers) (replaced with the 3rd round pick of 2014 draft used last year via trade --- Shamarko Thomas)
Ike Taylor (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Ike Taylor&Position=CB&Team=Steelers) ( needs replacing)
Heath Miller (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Heath Miller &Position=TE&Team=Steelers) ( needs replacing)
Maurkice Pouncey (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Maurkice Pouncey&Position=C&Team=Steelers) ( Contract 2)
Cameron Heyward (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Cameron Heyward&Position=34DE&Team=Steelers) ( Contract 2)
Shaun Suisham (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Shaun Suisham&Position=K&Team=Steelers) ( he is a kicker. don't build teams around kickers)
Matt Spaeth (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Matt Spaeth&Position=TE&Team=Steelers) ( backup)
Marcus Gilbert (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Marcus Gilbert&Position=RT&Team=Steelers) ( Mike Adams)
Kion Wilson (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Kion Wilson&Position=ILB&Team=Steelers) (develop)
Curtis Brown (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Curtis Brown&Position=CB&Team=Steelers) ( gone)
Cortez Allen (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Cortez Allen&Position=CB&Team=Steelers) ( Contract 2)
Chris Carter (http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Chris Carter&Position=34OLB&Team=Steelers) ( gone)


Using that logic I see only a few scenarios.

1. Any Defensive player ranked in the 0 -10 tier by the steelers still on the board ( Barr, Mack, Dennard??)
2. Ebron (jnr TE) if placed in tier 10 -20 by the steelers
3. Amaro (jnr TE) if placed in tier 10 - 20 by the steelers
4. Any WR ranked 0 - 10 by steelers ( Watkins, ????)


Eric Ebron 6'4 245 TE.
Plays like a slot receiver.
Can block.
Two birds, one stone

I'm convinced. Nice information.

Is Shamarko Troy's replacement? I always viewed him as more of the replacement for Clark.

[LLT]

Not exactly sure what you mean when you say need/want formula. If they draft a guy and it is not a need, it is w a want, but that want would certainly probably be the BPA (in their eyes). Prior to getting in this salary cap mess, the Steelers would use free agency to backfill all the roster holes prior to the draft. They would sign guys they expected to be, at least, a reasonable starter. They did this so they entered the draft not being forced to place need over BPA.


Basically...its a misconception to say that the Steelers draft BPA. Thats one of those things the talking heads throw around with little analysis to back it up. As I explained...We generally give all the players a "draft grade". The higher they are ranked the "tighter" that grade is. When we pick at 15....there may be 2-5 players that we feel are worthy of that high of a draft pick. All ranked pretty much in the same place. We then have to look at need/want. Some of the our positions are so thin...they fall into the "NEED" category....and others are a little deeper and only qualify as a "WANT".

For instance. Lets say its our turn to draft and that there are three players left on the board that we feel are worthy of being drafted at #15. They happen to be a CB, RB and a QB. If the FO plan happens to be to let Taylor go, then we "NEED" a CB. Having drafted a RB last year, then the "NEED" for a running back is much less, and is downgraded to "Want" at least until the later rounds. A QB wont even be considered even if he is the BPA on the board. (no need...no want)

We then end up drafting a player worthy of the #15 pick and the pundits fall all over themselves talking about how we "just went with the BPA". Which is not always true. You know as well as I, that no draft board is alike, so BPA is an arbitrary thing at best.

[GBMelBlount]

Basically...its a misconception to say that the Steelers draft BPA. Thats one of those things the talking heads throw around with little analysis to back it up. As I explained...We generally give all the players a "draft grade". The higher they are ranked the "tighter" that grade is. When we pick at 15....there may be 2-5 players that we feel are worthy of that high of a draft pick. All ranked pretty much in the same place. We then have to look at need/want. Some of the our positions are so thin...they fall into the "NEED" category....and others are a little deeper and only qualify as a "WANT".

For instance. Lets say its our turn to draft and that there are three players left on the board that we feel are worthy of being drafted at #15. They happen to be a CB, RB and a QB. If the FO plan happens to be to let Taylor go, then we "NEED" a CB. Having drafted a RB last year, then the "NEED" for a running back is much less, and is downgraded to "Want" at least until the later rounds. A QB wont even be considered even if he is the BPA on the board. (no need...no want)

We then end up drafting a player worthy of the #15 pick and the pundits fall all over themselves talking about how we "just went with the BPA". Which is not always true. You know as well as I, that no draft board is alike, so BPA is an arbitrary thing at best.

Great example Perry.

So if several players have similar BPA values go with biggest need.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/530385/guinness-brilliant_medium.jpg

[TMC]

Basically...its a misconception to say that the Steelers draft BPA. Thats one of those things the talking heads throw around with little analysis to back it up. As I explained...We generally give all the players a "draft grade". The higher they are ranked the "tighter" that grade is. When we pick at 15....there may be 2-5 players that we feel are worthy of that high of a draft pick. All ranked pretty much in the same place. We then have to look at need/want. Some of the our positions are so thin...they fall into the "NEED" category....and others are a little deeper and only qualify as a "WANT".

For instance. Lets say its our turn to draft and that there are three players left on the board that we feel are worthy of being drafted at #15. They happen to be a CB, RB and a QB. If the FO plan happens to be to let Taylor go, then we "NEED" a CB. Having drafted a RB last year, then the "NEED" for a running back is much less, and is downgraded to "Want" at least until the later rounds. A QB wont even be considered even if he is the BPA on the board. (no need...no want)

We then end up drafting a player worthy of the #15 pick and the pundits fall all over themselves talking about how we "just went with the BPA". Which is not always true. You know as well as I, that no draft board is alike, so BPA is an arbitrary thing at best.

While I get everything you are stating, if you have three players rated that closely and you draft the want/need, you are still drafting the BPA.

And, I do understand that there are certain positions that are eliminated prior to the draft beginning (especially in the first round), like QB. I also understand that there are positions eliminated because of value. You are not going to take a punter, kicker, or fullback in the first regardless of need or talent. Those positions do not merit the selection. I would assume that those ideas would be in place before the discussion began. In fact, Colbert almost comes out and states as much with regards to the positions they will not draft in the first round.

The issue arises when they begin drafting players such as Troy Edwards (need) over Javon Kearse (BPA). There was an obvious drastic difference in talent. It would be the equivalent of 9 WRs being off the board in this draft while Clowney sat there and they take WR #10. Ideally, the BPA and want/need would coincide, but when they fail to coincide, the Steelers should opt for BPA over need/want.

I disagree that BPA is arbitrary. I think BPA is similar to beauty. It is in the eye of the beholder. It exists, it just differs in its representation.

[one side only]

not sure why anyone automatically assumes an offensive draft pick in the first round will flourish and make us a great unit and in the same breath say a first round pick spent on the defense changes nothing about that units quality and ability ...

IMO that is very flawed logic

Jarvis Jones

[Dwinsgames]

Jarvis Jones

lets go back a decade and see if anyone else did well on the O side of the ball shall we

Decastro did what as a rookie ( besides get hurt ) ?

Mendenhall did what as a rookie ( besides get hurt when we needed him ) ?

Holmes 49 catches ( Sanders like numbers ) and nobody is to excited about him sticking around

Miller started 15 games but just 39 catches 450 yards ( but probably the best of the bunch )

[Steelerette]

Jarvis Jones contributed fine. At least he was on the field. A few whiffs, a few splash plays. And he should be a pretty decent starter next season too.

I can accept the premise that in general defensive players take longer to be contributing as starters but that's a piss poor argument against drafting defense. So we should what, never draft defense, and put out a squad of ragtag FA and UDFAs? (Well maybe, it's working for Seattle LOL) It's not always the case either. If we spend a first rounder on a CB we can basically expect him to be starting. Outside of CB we can probably get away with playing who we have the coming season for the most part, so while there's a definite need to upgrade on D there isn't a holy rush to draft a guy who is going to start day one anyways.

[steelreserve]

lets go back a decade and see if anyone else did well on the O side of the ball shall we

Decastro did what as a rookie ( besides get hurt ) ?

Mendenhall did what as a rookie ( besides get hurt when we needed him ) ?

Holmes 49 catches ( Sanders like numbers ) and nobody is to excited about him sticking around

Miller started 15 games but just 39 catches 450 yards ( but probably the best of the bunch )


In fairness, Holmes' 49 catches went for over 800 yards, and he was a pretty good return man except for one back-breaking fumble I still can't forget ... anyway, I would still call it a pretty good season for a rookie.

Mike Wallace - curse his name - made a pretty big impact ... Mendenhall didn't really get much of a shot because of his injury, but was good in his first "real" season. Bell definitely made an impact this year. Also, I hear Pouncey was pretty good.

But your point is well taken. Players who make a big difference right away are about as rare on offense as on defense. They do exist on both sides of the ball, but chances are in any given draft, you can expect to get somewhere between zero and one of those guys. You can be much more upbeat about things like what impact Shamarko Thomas will have next year, etc.

[LLT]

I disagree that BPA is arbitrary. I think BPA is similar to beauty. It is in the eye of the beholder.

The very definition of arbitrary.

[LLT]

Great example Perry.

So if several players have similar BPA values go with biggest need.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/530385/guinness-brilliant_medium.jpg

Exactly. And even then...the draft is still a quessing game and we are going to have hits amd misses.

[86WARD]

There aren't 4 QBs worthy of an "Above 15" pick, but I'd love to see it!! I said it elsewhere, but I really think that Munchak pick up really opens up even more opportunity for that #15 pick...