GBMelBlount
01-06-2014, 05:53 PM
(10 years - 2002 through 2011 - good stuff)
-----------------
The 2009 Kansas City Chiefs were the second-worst defense in the NFL when pressuring opposing passers with one or more defensive backs, allowing an opposing passer rating of 101.9 with secondary pressure. This deficiency was among the reasons they used a top-five pick on safety Eric Berry in the 2010 draft.
Although defensive backs traditionally do not come off the board that early, Berry was considered the top safety in the draft class. He helped the Chiefs improve their blitz pressure with one or more defensive backs to the best in the NFL.
So the Chiefs ended up looking smart by going against the grain of traditional thinking. Smart for sure, but perhaps the risk in taking Berry was minimal. Maybe adding to a team's secondary is actually one of the safest investments an NFL team can make in the draft.
Using a formula based on longevity and achievement, the risk inherent in certain positions -- and the lack of risk in others -- can be assessed.
Since the 2002 draft, the first with the NFL's current 32-team setup, the lowest risks in the first round have been defensive backs, linebackers and tight ends. Stars at each position -- Troy Polamalu, Clay Matthews and Dallas Clark among them -- have helped their teams to a Super Bowl title since entering the league.
The measurement of durability was based on how often each player made it on the field since entering the league and how many of those players drafted were still in the NFL in 2010. It also considered the percentage of regular-season games they played for their teams. Over that time period, defensive backs, linebackers and tight ends all surpassed the NFL average of 82.2 percent.
Achievement is the other key factor.
Using a weighted formula that assigns value to each position drafted in the first round since 2002, positions are rated by how successful first-round choices were in making Super Bowl appearances and in earning Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections.
A Pro Bowl selection was given the least value because the numerous roster substitutions, and in recent years the absence of players from the Super Bowl teams has diluted that achievement. All-Pro designation was given the highest value because it is an individual award that compares players with the rest of the league, not just a conference like the Pro Bowl rosters. Super Bowl appearances were ranked in between because the outcome typically is not something that one player can control.
Linebackers
Since 2002, no position has played in a higher percentage of possible team games among first-round draft picks than linebackers. The 27 linebackers drafted in the first round during this stretch have been on the field an average of 88.1 percent of all possible games.
Twenty-four of the 27 linebackers (88.9 percent) were still in the league last season. The only position that had a higher percentage was tight ends (100 percent).
Linebackers represent the highest achievement value among all first-round draftees over the past nine years. Linebackers have combined for Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections as well as Super Bowl appearances at a higher percentage than any other position drafted in the first round during this period. Eight of the 27 linebackers have earned All-Pro honors. That is the highest rate of any group over that span. During the same stretch, six of the nine AP Defensive Rookies of the Year have been linebackers who were selected in the first round.
Measuring Durability
Percentage of team games played,
first-round picks by position, since 2002 Pos. Percentage
LB 88.1%
DE 86.7%
TE 85.8%
DB 85.7%
NFL avg 82.2%
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=6389648
-----------------
The 2009 Kansas City Chiefs were the second-worst defense in the NFL when pressuring opposing passers with one or more defensive backs, allowing an opposing passer rating of 101.9 with secondary pressure. This deficiency was among the reasons they used a top-five pick on safety Eric Berry in the 2010 draft.
Although defensive backs traditionally do not come off the board that early, Berry was considered the top safety in the draft class. He helped the Chiefs improve their blitz pressure with one or more defensive backs to the best in the NFL.
So the Chiefs ended up looking smart by going against the grain of traditional thinking. Smart for sure, but perhaps the risk in taking Berry was minimal. Maybe adding to a team's secondary is actually one of the safest investments an NFL team can make in the draft.
Using a formula based on longevity and achievement, the risk inherent in certain positions -- and the lack of risk in others -- can be assessed.
Since the 2002 draft, the first with the NFL's current 32-team setup, the lowest risks in the first round have been defensive backs, linebackers and tight ends. Stars at each position -- Troy Polamalu, Clay Matthews and Dallas Clark among them -- have helped their teams to a Super Bowl title since entering the league.
The measurement of durability was based on how often each player made it on the field since entering the league and how many of those players drafted were still in the NFL in 2010. It also considered the percentage of regular-season games they played for their teams. Over that time period, defensive backs, linebackers and tight ends all surpassed the NFL average of 82.2 percent.
Achievement is the other key factor.
Using a weighted formula that assigns value to each position drafted in the first round since 2002, positions are rated by how successful first-round choices were in making Super Bowl appearances and in earning Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections.
A Pro Bowl selection was given the least value because the numerous roster substitutions, and in recent years the absence of players from the Super Bowl teams has diluted that achievement. All-Pro designation was given the highest value because it is an individual award that compares players with the rest of the league, not just a conference like the Pro Bowl rosters. Super Bowl appearances were ranked in between because the outcome typically is not something that one player can control.
Linebackers
Since 2002, no position has played in a higher percentage of possible team games among first-round draft picks than linebackers. The 27 linebackers drafted in the first round during this stretch have been on the field an average of 88.1 percent of all possible games.
Twenty-four of the 27 linebackers (88.9 percent) were still in the league last season. The only position that had a higher percentage was tight ends (100 percent).
Linebackers represent the highest achievement value among all first-round draftees over the past nine years. Linebackers have combined for Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections as well as Super Bowl appearances at a higher percentage than any other position drafted in the first round during this period. Eight of the 27 linebackers have earned All-Pro honors. That is the highest rate of any group over that span. During the same stretch, six of the nine AP Defensive Rookies of the Year have been linebackers who were selected in the first round.
Measuring Durability
Percentage of team games played,
first-round picks by position, since 2002 Pos. Percentage
LB 88.1%
DE 86.7%
TE 85.8%
DB 85.7%
NFL avg 82.2%
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=6389648