Craic
11-14-2012, 03:47 PM
So - just how much is the defense improving this year? The biggest problem with our defense is the fourth quarter - and has been since 2008, so let's use that as a metric and take a look at the difference between the first five games and the last four on defense in the fourth quarter:
(tl;dr version in chart) In the first five games the Steelers defense had to take the field an average of 2.4 times (not including taking the field for the kneel down in Denver). In those 2.4 drives per game, the Steelers defense allowed an average of 20.4 plays, 6.4 first downs, 8 points, and 120 yards per fourth quarter. In the last four games the Steelers defense had to take the field an average of 3.5 times (not including taking the field for the kneel down in Cincy). In those 3.5 drives per game, the Steelers defense allowed an average of 16 plays, 2.5 first downs, .75 points, and 38 yards per fourth quarter.
That means that even though the last four teams has had (on average) one extra drive against our defense, our defense has allowed 4.4 less plays, 6 less first downs, 7 less points, and 82 less yards per fourth quarter.
An even more important stat: in the first five games, there's been 2 drives for the win, and only two 3-and-outs of the total 12 fourth quarter drives. In the last four games, there's been 0 drives for the win (one for a tie), and eight 3-and-outs in the last 14 fourth quarter drives.
I know there's a bunch of numbers here, so let me simplify and then conclude below:
AVERAGE PER FOURTH QUARTER
FIRST FIVE GAMES
LAST FOUR GAMES
PERCENTAGE
DIFFERENCE IN LAST FOUR GAMES
Ave. Number of drives
2.4
3.5
46% more drives in fourth quarter
# of plays
20.4
16
22% better
First downs
6.4
2.5
61% better
Points
8
.75
91% better
Yards
120
38
68% better
Drive to win/tie allowed
2
1
50% better
Three and outs
2
8
400% better
I've included the raw numbers below:
[*=1]Denver
Drive 1: 10 plays, 5 first downs, 7 points (80 yards).
Drive 2: 12 plays, 4 first downs (1 by penalty), 3 points (51 yards)
Drive 3: Kneeldown.
Total 4th quarter possession: 22 plays, 9 first downs, 10 points (131 yards).
[*=1]Jets
Drive 1: 3 plays, 1 first down (by penalty), 0 points (22 yards).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (0 yards).
Drive 3: 6 plays, 3 first downs (2 by penalty, one declined), 0 points (49 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 12 plays, 4 first downs (two by penalty), 0 points, (71 yards).
[*=1]Raiders
Drive 1: (continued from third quarter) 11 plays, 2 first downs (one by penalty), 7 points (80 yards).
Drive 2: 9 plays, 2 first downs (one by penalty), 3 points (50 yards).
Drive 3: 9 plays, 2 first downs, 3 points-FTW (49 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 29 plays, 6 first downs (2 by penalty), 13 points (179 yards).
[*=1]Eagles
Drive 1: 17 plays, 5 first downs, 7 points (79 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 17 plays, 5 first downs, 7 points (79 yards).
[*=1]Titans
Drive 1: (continued from third quarter) 6 plays, 2 first downs, 0 points, INTERCEPTION (27 yards).
Drive 2: 11 plays, 4 first downs (one by penalty), 7 points (80 yards).
Drive 3: 5 plays, 1 first down 33 yards, 3 points-FTW (33 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession, 22 plays, 8 first downs, 10 points, 140 yards.
[*=1]Bengals
Drive 1: 5 plays, 1 first down, no points (15 yards).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, no points (7 yards).
Drive 3: 3 Plays, 0 first downs, no points (0 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 11 plays, 1 first down, no points (22 yards).
[*=1]Redskins
Drive 1: (continued from third quarter) 9 plays, 2 first downs 3 points (15 yards).
Drive 2: 12 plays, 5 first downs (one by penalty) 0 points (60 yards).
Drive 3: 1 play, kneel down.
Total 4th quarter possession: 22 plays, 6 first downs (plus one for a penalty), three points from a drive starting in the third quarter (75 yards).
[*=1]Giants
Drive 1: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (-12 yards).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (3 yards).
Drive 3: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (0 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 9 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (-9 yards).
[*=1]Chiefs
Drive 1: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (-1 yard).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (9 yards).
Drive 3: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (4 yards).
Drive 4: 9 plays, 3 first downs, 3 points (52 yards).
Drive 5 (OT): 1 play, 0 first downs, 0 points, INTERCEPTION (4 yards).
Total 4th quarter (+OT) possession: 19 plays, 3 first downs, 3 points (64 yards).
CONCLUSION - our defense is most definitely trending upward in the most important aspect of the game, fourth quarter stops. I could care less about turnover numbers, sacks, etc. from this defense. As long as they put up these kind of stats in the fourth quarter, there's no reason why we can't win every game Ben is playing in.
(tl;dr version in chart) In the first five games the Steelers defense had to take the field an average of 2.4 times (not including taking the field for the kneel down in Denver). In those 2.4 drives per game, the Steelers defense allowed an average of 20.4 plays, 6.4 first downs, 8 points, and 120 yards per fourth quarter. In the last four games the Steelers defense had to take the field an average of 3.5 times (not including taking the field for the kneel down in Cincy). In those 3.5 drives per game, the Steelers defense allowed an average of 16 plays, 2.5 first downs, .75 points, and 38 yards per fourth quarter.
That means that even though the last four teams has had (on average) one extra drive against our defense, our defense has allowed 4.4 less plays, 6 less first downs, 7 less points, and 82 less yards per fourth quarter.
An even more important stat: in the first five games, there's been 2 drives for the win, and only two 3-and-outs of the total 12 fourth quarter drives. In the last four games, there's been 0 drives for the win (one for a tie), and eight 3-and-outs in the last 14 fourth quarter drives.
I know there's a bunch of numbers here, so let me simplify and then conclude below:
AVERAGE PER FOURTH QUARTER
FIRST FIVE GAMES
LAST FOUR GAMES
PERCENTAGE
DIFFERENCE IN LAST FOUR GAMES
Ave. Number of drives
2.4
3.5
46% more drives in fourth quarter
# of plays
20.4
16
22% better
First downs
6.4
2.5
61% better
Points
8
.75
91% better
Yards
120
38
68% better
Drive to win/tie allowed
2
1
50% better
Three and outs
2
8
400% better
I've included the raw numbers below:
[*=1]Denver
Drive 1: 10 plays, 5 first downs, 7 points (80 yards).
Drive 2: 12 plays, 4 first downs (1 by penalty), 3 points (51 yards)
Drive 3: Kneeldown.
Total 4th quarter possession: 22 plays, 9 first downs, 10 points (131 yards).
[*=1]Jets
Drive 1: 3 plays, 1 first down (by penalty), 0 points (22 yards).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (0 yards).
Drive 3: 6 plays, 3 first downs (2 by penalty, one declined), 0 points (49 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 12 plays, 4 first downs (two by penalty), 0 points, (71 yards).
[*=1]Raiders
Drive 1: (continued from third quarter) 11 plays, 2 first downs (one by penalty), 7 points (80 yards).
Drive 2: 9 plays, 2 first downs (one by penalty), 3 points (50 yards).
Drive 3: 9 plays, 2 first downs, 3 points-FTW (49 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 29 plays, 6 first downs (2 by penalty), 13 points (179 yards).
[*=1]Eagles
Drive 1: 17 plays, 5 first downs, 7 points (79 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 17 plays, 5 first downs, 7 points (79 yards).
[*=1]Titans
Drive 1: (continued from third quarter) 6 plays, 2 first downs, 0 points, INTERCEPTION (27 yards).
Drive 2: 11 plays, 4 first downs (one by penalty), 7 points (80 yards).
Drive 3: 5 plays, 1 first down 33 yards, 3 points-FTW (33 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession, 22 plays, 8 first downs, 10 points, 140 yards.
[*=1]Bengals
Drive 1: 5 plays, 1 first down, no points (15 yards).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, no points (7 yards).
Drive 3: 3 Plays, 0 first downs, no points (0 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 11 plays, 1 first down, no points (22 yards).
[*=1]Redskins
Drive 1: (continued from third quarter) 9 plays, 2 first downs 3 points (15 yards).
Drive 2: 12 plays, 5 first downs (one by penalty) 0 points (60 yards).
Drive 3: 1 play, kneel down.
Total 4th quarter possession: 22 plays, 6 first downs (plus one for a penalty), three points from a drive starting in the third quarter (75 yards).
[*=1]Giants
Drive 1: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (-12 yards).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (3 yards).
Drive 3: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (0 yards).
Total 4th quarter possession: 9 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (-9 yards).
[*=1]Chiefs
Drive 1: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (-1 yard).
Drive 2: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (9 yards).
Drive 3: 3 plays, 0 first downs, 0 points (4 yards).
Drive 4: 9 plays, 3 first downs, 3 points (52 yards).
Drive 5 (OT): 1 play, 0 first downs, 0 points, INTERCEPTION (4 yards).
Total 4th quarter (+OT) possession: 19 plays, 3 first downs, 3 points (64 yards).
CONCLUSION - our defense is most definitely trending upward in the most important aspect of the game, fourth quarter stops. I could care less about turnover numbers, sacks, etc. from this defense. As long as they put up these kind of stats in the fourth quarter, there's no reason why we can't win every game Ben is playing in.