Craic
10-12-2012, 04:40 PM
The field goal attempt:
Let's back up to discuss what happened as they cross the half way point. 1st-10 Ten 39. Ben passes short right to Miller for 4 yards. That's a good, clock eating, play. A sack is worse than an incomplete pass here, so eat up 4 yards, 2 and 6. Batch up the middle, stuffed for -1 yards. For everyone that yells and screams at this play, I reminded you that this was EXACTLY what many were mad at Arians for NOT doing. Haley got this call right. Run the ball and eat up time off the clock. Make the other team take a time out. Batch was getting between a yard and 10 yards a run up the middle. So at worst, it's 3rd and 5. However, he got stuffed for minus a yard. However, Tennessee was forced to take a timeout. If we had made three or four yards, that'd have been an excellent call. as it was, it's a wash. We're at 3rd and 7 with Tennessee burning a timeout. 3rd and 7 is an incomplete pass. Many of you might say that should have been a run in order to force another Tennessee timeout. The problem is, without hindsight, that assures we give the ball back to Tennessee with one timeout left and about a minute on the clock. Now I ask you, with veteran QB that has been in these situations before, and with a defense that's swiss cheese in the fourth quarter, would YOU want the offense to have the ball and a timeout with a minute left on the clock? I wouldn't.
That leaves us with the fourth down decision. Three options are bandied about: (a) Put it in Ben's hands; (b) Punt; (c) Field goal. Let's take a further in depth look, WITHOUT resorting to hindsight:
(a) Put the ball in Ben's hands. We have made 3 out of 5 first downs on fourth down. While that may look good, don't forget we were 4th and 7, not 4th and short. Secondly, in order to get our players 7-10 yards out on their routes, Ben would have had to hold the ball for 2 to 3 seconds, assuming the DB's would have come up and jammed our WR's. We had a backup center, A rookie at RT, and a lineman playing injured. If we make the first down, we still have to drive for go ahead score. If we miss it, the Titans get the ball on the 36 yard line.
(b) Punt. Again, the ball is at the 36 yard line. Let's say he puts the ball on the 15. That's a 30 yard field difference (from where the Titans would get the ball if a field goal was tried), with a defense that gives that up in two plays (heck, one play often enough in this situation). Furthermore, how many 10 or 15 yard penalties have we taken on punts? I seem to remember about 3? maybe 4? Let's go with three, since it's the lower number. Out of 18 punts, there's been 3 penalties, that's 1/6th of all punts up to that point, which means (rounding off) there's also a 20 percent chance that the ball would come out to the 25 or even the 30 yard line. That lowers the change of field to 25 or 20 yards. I haven't even included the possibility of touch back because Butler hasn't hit a touch back yet. But even so, there's a chance that he does get one. I also have assumed that there's no run back. But that's not a good assumption either.
So, at best, there's probably a 30 yard difference of field position. With a touch back (let's give it a 5 percent chance at this point), it would have been a 25 yard difference. With any kind of run back that would have shortened, maybe considerably (it's not inconceivable to assume 10 run backs for every 100 punts from that position, so let's give this a 10 percent chance). With a penalty, (20 percent chance) it would have been a 15 or 20 yard difference of field position. Hence, there's a 65 percent chance of a thirty yard change of field position, and a 35 percent chance that the change would be less than that.
(c) Field goal. Squeezeme's hit 11/11 field goals. so far this year. Every one of them has been right down the middle. His leg is dead on. He's had 3 attempts from over 40 yards, and is 100% in those. He's just hit a 52 yard field goal, splitting the uprights with about 5 to 6 yards to spare. If you miss the field goal, your in almost the same position you're in if Ben doesn't get the first down. If you make the field goal, your up by three, forcing the other team to make a touchdown to win, and you're kicking off, with a team average of allowing 28 yards a return IF they run it out (don't forget, usually that starts a couple yards or more in the endzone this year), which puts the ball anywhere between the 20 and the 30 yard line, with three points up. So, at worst, your in almost the same position as if Ben doesn't make the first down. At best, your three points up and ALSO 5 to 10 yards away from the same position as if we punted the ball.
Before we finish our assessment, let's take into account our defense. There's just over a minute left on the clock, and the Titans have two time outs, which is about the equivalent of two minutes with no timeouts, or even better, since they can call any play and then call a timeout to stop the clock. Thus, they don't really have to limit their playbook as much as if they had no timeouts, or even one. Now, what has our defense done in the past?
Exhibit A. Oakland. Ball starts on the Oakland 25 yard line with 1:43 to play and two timeouts. They drive 50 yards, and in the end, actually have enough time left for Palmer to kneel down in order to kill time off the clock.
Exhibit B. Oakland. D. McFadden. 64 yard run for TD.
Exhibit C. Manning to Thomas, 71 yard Pass for TD.
Exhibit D. Jets have the ball with 1:07 left in the game at their 18 yard line. They drive to the Pittsburgh 30 yard line. If they needed a FG for the win, it's a 48 yard attempt. Transfer that to the Titans, and you have one of the better FG kickers in the game kicking for the win.
What does this add up to? The two teams that were down at the end of the game against us, BOTH were able to drive from deep within their own territory, to field goal range and seal the game. Both teams did it by utilizing about the same amount of time the Titans had (Don't forget, the Raiders ran the clock down). That means that so far this year, our defense has not, in ANY case, been able to stop a team from driving in their two minute offense in the fourth quarter (We can throw Peyton Manning's entire second half in this too). Beyond that, our defense has the proclivity to giving up big plays.
So how do we conclude this?
A. If we give Ben the ball, we have a little over a 60/40 shot of making a first down, and that doesn't include the fact that he has to depend on two backup lineman (one a rookie) and a third injured lineman to protect him so they players can get out seven yards. If he doesn't make it, according to the stats, we lose the game because of our defense. If he makes it, we still need to kick a field goal to break the tie. It may take more time of the clock, but with two time outs, the Titans can limit that.
B. If we punt, we lose the game. This years stats prove that. Unless the other team's kicker misses (50/50 from 40 yards or more). At BEST, we are in overtime.
C. If we kick a field goal, We force the other team to freeze the kicker, leaving them with 1 timeout left. That's a lot better than 2 time outs left and nine more yards to drive if we fail to convert fourth down. Our kicker is perfect so far this season, and has just hit a FG that shows he has the distance.
So taking into account 3 positions on the line that are degraded a fair degree from the start of the game, the fact that it was 4th and 7, the fact that it was pretty much a given that the other team would score three points (and with a second TO, even more so), and the fact that our kicker has given every indication that he should make that kick in that situation, I think the field goal was the right call in this situation.
_________________________
Mods: I made a new thread because I wanted to discuss this situation only, and not in the "We lost the season" mentality. Hopefully it can stay separate, but I understand if it's merged.
Let's back up to discuss what happened as they cross the half way point. 1st-10 Ten 39. Ben passes short right to Miller for 4 yards. That's a good, clock eating, play. A sack is worse than an incomplete pass here, so eat up 4 yards, 2 and 6. Batch up the middle, stuffed for -1 yards. For everyone that yells and screams at this play, I reminded you that this was EXACTLY what many were mad at Arians for NOT doing. Haley got this call right. Run the ball and eat up time off the clock. Make the other team take a time out. Batch was getting between a yard and 10 yards a run up the middle. So at worst, it's 3rd and 5. However, he got stuffed for minus a yard. However, Tennessee was forced to take a timeout. If we had made three or four yards, that'd have been an excellent call. as it was, it's a wash. We're at 3rd and 7 with Tennessee burning a timeout. 3rd and 7 is an incomplete pass. Many of you might say that should have been a run in order to force another Tennessee timeout. The problem is, without hindsight, that assures we give the ball back to Tennessee with one timeout left and about a minute on the clock. Now I ask you, with veteran QB that has been in these situations before, and with a defense that's swiss cheese in the fourth quarter, would YOU want the offense to have the ball and a timeout with a minute left on the clock? I wouldn't.
That leaves us with the fourth down decision. Three options are bandied about: (a) Put it in Ben's hands; (b) Punt; (c) Field goal. Let's take a further in depth look, WITHOUT resorting to hindsight:
(a) Put the ball in Ben's hands. We have made 3 out of 5 first downs on fourth down. While that may look good, don't forget we were 4th and 7, not 4th and short. Secondly, in order to get our players 7-10 yards out on their routes, Ben would have had to hold the ball for 2 to 3 seconds, assuming the DB's would have come up and jammed our WR's. We had a backup center, A rookie at RT, and a lineman playing injured. If we make the first down, we still have to drive for go ahead score. If we miss it, the Titans get the ball on the 36 yard line.
(b) Punt. Again, the ball is at the 36 yard line. Let's say he puts the ball on the 15. That's a 30 yard field difference (from where the Titans would get the ball if a field goal was tried), with a defense that gives that up in two plays (heck, one play often enough in this situation). Furthermore, how many 10 or 15 yard penalties have we taken on punts? I seem to remember about 3? maybe 4? Let's go with three, since it's the lower number. Out of 18 punts, there's been 3 penalties, that's 1/6th of all punts up to that point, which means (rounding off) there's also a 20 percent chance that the ball would come out to the 25 or even the 30 yard line. That lowers the change of field to 25 or 20 yards. I haven't even included the possibility of touch back because Butler hasn't hit a touch back yet. But even so, there's a chance that he does get one. I also have assumed that there's no run back. But that's not a good assumption either.
So, at best, there's probably a 30 yard difference of field position. With a touch back (let's give it a 5 percent chance at this point), it would have been a 25 yard difference. With any kind of run back that would have shortened, maybe considerably (it's not inconceivable to assume 10 run backs for every 100 punts from that position, so let's give this a 10 percent chance). With a penalty, (20 percent chance) it would have been a 15 or 20 yard difference of field position. Hence, there's a 65 percent chance of a thirty yard change of field position, and a 35 percent chance that the change would be less than that.
(c) Field goal. Squeezeme's hit 11/11 field goals. so far this year. Every one of them has been right down the middle. His leg is dead on. He's had 3 attempts from over 40 yards, and is 100% in those. He's just hit a 52 yard field goal, splitting the uprights with about 5 to 6 yards to spare. If you miss the field goal, your in almost the same position you're in if Ben doesn't get the first down. If you make the field goal, your up by three, forcing the other team to make a touchdown to win, and you're kicking off, with a team average of allowing 28 yards a return IF they run it out (don't forget, usually that starts a couple yards or more in the endzone this year), which puts the ball anywhere between the 20 and the 30 yard line, with three points up. So, at worst, your in almost the same position as if Ben doesn't make the first down. At best, your three points up and ALSO 5 to 10 yards away from the same position as if we punted the ball.
Before we finish our assessment, let's take into account our defense. There's just over a minute left on the clock, and the Titans have two time outs, which is about the equivalent of two minutes with no timeouts, or even better, since they can call any play and then call a timeout to stop the clock. Thus, they don't really have to limit their playbook as much as if they had no timeouts, or even one. Now, what has our defense done in the past?
Exhibit A. Oakland. Ball starts on the Oakland 25 yard line with 1:43 to play and two timeouts. They drive 50 yards, and in the end, actually have enough time left for Palmer to kneel down in order to kill time off the clock.
Exhibit B. Oakland. D. McFadden. 64 yard run for TD.
Exhibit C. Manning to Thomas, 71 yard Pass for TD.
Exhibit D. Jets have the ball with 1:07 left in the game at their 18 yard line. They drive to the Pittsburgh 30 yard line. If they needed a FG for the win, it's a 48 yard attempt. Transfer that to the Titans, and you have one of the better FG kickers in the game kicking for the win.
What does this add up to? The two teams that were down at the end of the game against us, BOTH were able to drive from deep within their own territory, to field goal range and seal the game. Both teams did it by utilizing about the same amount of time the Titans had (Don't forget, the Raiders ran the clock down). That means that so far this year, our defense has not, in ANY case, been able to stop a team from driving in their two minute offense in the fourth quarter (We can throw Peyton Manning's entire second half in this too). Beyond that, our defense has the proclivity to giving up big plays.
So how do we conclude this?
A. If we give Ben the ball, we have a little over a 60/40 shot of making a first down, and that doesn't include the fact that he has to depend on two backup lineman (one a rookie) and a third injured lineman to protect him so they players can get out seven yards. If he doesn't make it, according to the stats, we lose the game because of our defense. If he makes it, we still need to kick a field goal to break the tie. It may take more time of the clock, but with two time outs, the Titans can limit that.
B. If we punt, we lose the game. This years stats prove that. Unless the other team's kicker misses (50/50 from 40 yards or more). At BEST, we are in overtime.
C. If we kick a field goal, We force the other team to freeze the kicker, leaving them with 1 timeout left. That's a lot better than 2 time outs left and nine more yards to drive if we fail to convert fourth down. Our kicker is perfect so far this season, and has just hit a FG that shows he has the distance.
So taking into account 3 positions on the line that are degraded a fair degree from the start of the game, the fact that it was 4th and 7, the fact that it was pretty much a given that the other team would score three points (and with a second TO, even more so), and the fact that our kicker has given every indication that he should make that kick in that situation, I think the field goal was the right call in this situation.
_________________________
Mods: I made a new thread because I wanted to discuss this situation only, and not in the "We lost the season" mentality. Hopefully it can stay separate, but I understand if it's merged.