Let's try this again - the three year cycle. [Archive]

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Craic

10-04-2012, 02:23 AM

The WH

10-04-2012, 02:47 AM

LLT

10-04-2012, 03:02 AM

Count Steeler

10-04-2012, 04:48 AM

Patterns are made to be broken. Will be interesting to see if the pattern continues.

zulater

10-04-2012, 05:11 AM

We have a franchise quarterback playing at the peak of his abilities with the best assortment of receivers in the history of this team. I also think the line is improving and will be the best it's been since 2005. The running game, obviously it depends a lot on Mendenhall. But even without him, last game I think the Steelers ran the ball effectively when they needed to.

In other words you don't settle if you're the Steelers. You maximize your chances now when you're elite at the most important position on the field. So to hell with the "3 year cycle. Figure out what it takes to get the defense to play as competent as they're capable of and go for it full bore right now. The Patriots and Packers both sucked defensively last year and were arguably the two best teams in football in 2011.

If the offense can truly become elite they can drag the defense along for the ride, and we should be a prominent player this season.

NCSteeler

10-04-2012, 08:33 AM

I believe they will turn it around, but if they don't a top 20 draft pick couldn't hurt. Let's see Burress, Hampton, Polamalu, Roethlisberger, Timmons , Pouncey we do pretty well drafting top 20. So in the down years you point out we grabbed Ben, Timmons and Pouncey not a bad take even with all the criticism Timmons gets.

So let's forget all that and go win 10 or 12 straight.

suitanim

10-04-2012, 08:47 AM

Not ready to concede a 9-7 or 8-8 season just yet. Especially since this is the first game the team has been even remotely healthy.

Edman

10-04-2012, 09:02 AM

2003 was done in by a bad quarterback and an O-Line in shambles.

2006 was Cowher's mishandling of Ben's injuries (appendectomy, concussion) and rushing him back too soon. If Batch plays the Jacksonville and Oakland games, The Steelers more than likely win those games.

2009 was the team simply collapsing after a 6-2 start.

Right now, this year's team seems to be doomed thanks to a bad defense, but we don't know just yet.

GodfatherofSoul

10-04-2012, 09:53 AM

Well, according to that pattern we're going 10-6.

suitanim

10-04-2012, 09:57 AM

Well, according to that pattern we're going 10-6.

Hmmmm...you know, you're right. And, that sounds about right as well. 8-8, then 9-7, then 10-6. UNLESS we revert back, and we go 8-8 again.

But, to be honest, we can't assess the defense until this Sunday. They are now healthy, at least relatively so. I'm hoping for 10-14 points total for the Eagles. To me that's acceptable, and a good sign that there is still life in these guys...

bayz101

10-04-2012, 10:19 AM

Or....

2005 - Super Bowl
2006 - Missed Playoff's
2007 - Made Playoff's
2008 - Super Bowl
2009 - Missed Playoff's
2010 - Made Playoff's (technically made the Super Bowl)

And sure enough, I spent most of last year telling people about this pattern. Didn't work that way though.

My point: Patterns mean nothing. Interesting though.

Craic

10-04-2012, 01:01 PM

Well, according to that pattern we're going 10-6.

I was wondering if anyone was going to pick up on that.

Or....

2005 - Super Bowl
2006 - Missed Playoff's
2007 - Made Playoff's
2008 - Super Bowl
2009 - Missed Playoff's
2010 - Made Playoff's (technically made the Super Bowl)

And sure enough, I spent most of last year telling people about this pattern. Didn't work that way though.

My point: Patterns mean nothing. Interesting though.

Yes and no. Patterns mean a whole lot, because they tell you that's something's happening on a consistent scale, and gives the observer a chance to figure out what changes need to be made. The key however, is that you can't look for specifics - such as "Will we win the SB," because that can be decided on one play. Or even "Can we make the SB," for the same reasons. BUT, making the playoffs, is based on 16 games and as such, gives a much better perspective on the overall team/season.

Edman

10-04-2012, 01:14 PM

Hmmmm...you know, you're right. And, that sounds about right as well. 8-8, then 9-7, then 10-6. UNLESS we revert back, and we go 8-8 again.

But, to be honest, we can't assess the defense until this Sunday. They are now healthy, at least relatively so. I'm hoping for 10-14 points total for the Eagles. To me that's acceptable, and a good sign that there is still life in these guys...

2003 6-10

2006 8-8

2009 9-7

In each of our "down years" there were better results than the one before it. It's not totally out of the question for this team to do better than 9-7.

st33lersguy

10-04-2012, 01:46 PM

Every three years lose a bunch of games that the team should have won and miss the playoffs. Yep this trend seems to be continuing. Ben is off to his best career start, but the running game is shakier than the San Andreas Fault and the defense is nonexistent unless they are playing the extremely inept Mark Sanchez and the chaotic soap opera that is the New York Jets

CPanther95

10-04-2012, 07:43 PM

Haven't we gone 6-2 the last 5 years?

I'll stick with that trend for now.

TheRuneMeister

10-05-2012, 06:37 AM

At this point .500 and above sounds good to me. I really hope we take a step towards that on sunday. I do however think the league standings are a bit skewed at the moment. When looking at the standings, I really don't trust them at this point. I think a lot will have changed by the time we get to december.

Craic

10-12-2012, 02:20 AM

Is it too soon to bump this thread?

Count Steeler

10-12-2012, 04:41 AM

If the injuries keep up, might as well go for the draft pick.

zulater

10-12-2012, 05:55 AM

Is it too soon to bump this thread?

Right now I'd say we're in a cycle that we wont make the playoffs for at least two seasons. The defense is so bad that it needs a total overhaul, and that can't be done in one offseason.

suitanim

10-12-2012, 08:24 AM

Looks like we're reverting back and going 8-8.

43Hitman

10-12-2012, 08:27 AM

Looks like we're reverting back and going 8-8.

Right now I don't see 8 wins.

suitanim

10-12-2012, 08:31 AM

We're still a very good home team (unless THOSE wheels fall off too). It's weird...it's literally like the Steelers are a different team when they play at home.

Moose

10-12-2012, 08:44 AM

Pretty good stats. I hope it's true, then it gives me hope for the coming years !!

Edman

10-12-2012, 08:55 AM

Moose

10-12-2012, 09:07 AM

The Steelers are much better at Heinz than on the road, and it's not an exaggeration. The Steelers are utterly powerful at home. I don't know why but it's true so far.

Unless this team starts falling apart at home, this season isn't going to be a complete waste.

I love your thinking, but I just don't see it in their play. They just look like they are going thru the motions. I don't see any 'fire' in their eyes or play Edman. To me they actually look like a losing team. 5 - 11, 6-10 or maybe 7-9 ( where I think they will end up). For some reason they just look beat, even before game. I don't see any enthusiasm on the side line. Is it the new Off. Cord. ? I don't believe 1 man can change the chemistry like that, but who know's. Something definitely needs addressed.....and soon. Maybe Mr. Rooney needs to check into the team attitudes.

st33lersguy

10-12-2012, 09:37 AM

6-10 at best.

Craic

10-17-2012, 11:47 PM

Right now I'd say we're in a cycle that we wont make the playoffs for at least two seasons. The defense is so bad that it needs a total overhaul, and that can't be done in one offseason.

No way - if we can come back from the 2003 season, to go 15-1 in 2004, there's no reason at all that we can't make the playoffs next year. We're not even truly out this year.

Count Steeler

12-11-2012, 08:33 PM

Hey Preacher, you nailed it. We still may make the playoffs but this has been quite a trying year.

Steeldude

12-12-2012, 05:56 AM

Purely coincidental.

Moose

12-12-2012, 11:37 AM

zulater

12-12-2012, 12:42 PM

tube517

12-12-2012, 12:59 PM

The 3 yr cycle ended when we lost in the first round of the playoffs last year

Psycho Ward 86

12-12-2012, 01:37 PM

seriously. there are way more bizarre coincidences than this crap. its really not even bizarre.

Craic

12-12-2012, 03:48 PM

They Patriots don't have a 3 year cycle. The Colts with Peyton Manning didn't have a 3 year cycle. We have a franchise quarterback at the peak of his abilities just like them. So why should we accept a "3 year cycle"?

It's not a matter of "accepting" or not "accepting" it's a matter of "it is." I think most people here would put this season's performance in line with 2003, 2006, and 2009, making it four complete cycles of 2 good years then 1 bad year.

Craic

12-12-2012, 03:53 PM

Purely coincidental.

seriously. there are way more bizarre coincidences than this crap. its really not even bizarre.

This is the fourth iteration of the same 2 on 1 off. Exactly how many time does that have to happen before it's a coincidence that every third year we suck? No, it's not bizarre. Bizarre would be something that happens one time. This has been happening for over a decade now. Nor is it "coincidence." Coincidence's that repeat stop being a coincidence and start being a pattern--even if you don't care for this "crap."

Tell me WHY it is just coincidence instead of pontificating, thank you.

(Hmm--posts didn't merge!

Psycho Ward 86

12-12-2012, 05:40 PM

This is the fourth iteration of the same 2 on 1 off. Exactly how many time does that have to happen before it's a coincidence that every third year we suck? No, it's not bizarre. Bizarre would be something that happens one time. This has been happening for over a decade now. Nor is it "coincidence." Coincidence's that repeat stop being a coincidence and start being a pattern--even if you don't care for this "crap."

Tell me WHY it is just coincidence instead of pontificating, thank you.

(Hmm--posts didn't merge!

because it is. you dont even know how it's not a coincidence other than the fact that it happens every 3 years. What decisions is the organization making that causes that 3rd year? Nothing unusual. So to me, coincidence. Just hard to be good every year.

Steeldude

12-12-2012, 06:26 PM

This is the fourth iteration of the same 2 on 1 off. Exactly how many time does that have to happen before it's a coincidence that every third year we suck? No, it's not bizarre. Bizarre would be something that happens one time. This has been happening for over a decade now. Nor is it "coincidence." Coincidence's that repeat stop being a coincidence and start being a pattern--even if you don't care for this "crap."

Tell me WHY it is just coincidence instead of pontificating, thank you.

(Hmm--posts didn't merge!

Then I take it you will be betting your house and all of your savings on the Steelers to go to the playoffs or SB in 2013/14? How did the cycle look before 2001?

There is no mysterious mojo or superstitions. There is nothing scientifically logical in what you claim.

What happens if the Steelers go to the playoffs this year?

BlastFurnace

12-12-2012, 08:33 PM

I already cancelled my NFL Sunday Ticket for 2015. :)

It's a weird trend that this team can't seem to escape.

GBMelBlount

12-12-2012, 10:46 PM

Purely coincidental.

Yep. Neat none the less.

Craic

12-13-2012, 12:54 AM

Then I take it you will be betting your house and all of your savings on the Steelers to go to the playoffs or SB in 2013/14? How did the cycle look before 2001?

There is no mysterious mojo or superstitions. There is nothing scientifically logical in what you claim.

What happens if the Steelers go to the playoffs this year?

No? Then how about this. tl;dr version at bottom. . .

1. I created a random number generator in excel to generate numbers between 0 (bad season) and 1 (good season).

2. I then created 11,232 series of 12 seasons (each 0 and 1 from the random number generator).

3. After that, I split each series of twelve seasons into 4 data sets of three numbers each (each series of three representing a win, win, loss cycle).

4. I then counted every series that produced four data sets with 2 good seasons and 1 bad season, or in other words, that represented our 2 good, one bad season cycle over four cycles.

5. I then refreshed the random numbers 300 times, every time checking the percent of 12 season runs that came up with a the 2 + 1 cycle.

6. I could only get the same 2 + 1 cycle over 4 cycles (each set in a series to come up with 2 good and 1 bad seasons) on average, 1.8% to 2% of the time. The highest was 2.3 % That puts it far above the 95% statistically significant rate.

7. In one iteration (i.e. 11,232 series of 12 number), I counted all of the times that a pattern held through all four data sets (regardless of whether that patern was 2 good seasons then 1 bad; 1 good, 1 bad, then 1 good season; or 1 bad then two good seasons. As long as the same pattern held through all four sets in the series, I counted it). Only seven times out of 217 2+1 series did a consistent pattern followed throughout all four data sets. That also means that only seven times out of 11,232 series did a pattern such as we're seeing appear.

Let's put the last two numbers in perspective. When you only look at the series that had 2 wins and 1 loss for every data set, the same pattern showed in all four data sets in the series only 3.2 percent of the time. Of all the 11,232 series of 12 seasons, only 2% of those series even had 2 wins and 1 loss per each data set.

In other words (tl;dr version): There is a 99.94 percent chance that our 2 wins, 1 loss pattern over 12 years is NOT random and ABSOLUTELY not coincidental. Those are the numbers.

Or, are you going to now argue that this year is a good season?

Seven

12-13-2012, 04:56 AM

So, three years ago when I brought up it, most people just ignored it. But amazingly, it seems to be happening again. What, you ask? Let's stake a look:

2001 Playoffs
2002 Playoffs

2003 6-10

2004 Playoffs
2005 Playoffs (SB WIN)

2006 8-8

2007 Playoffs
2008 Playoffs (SB WIN)

2009 9-7

2010 Playoffs (SB Loss)
2011 Playoffs.

2012 1-2 start.

Anyone see a pattern? There's the old saying around Steeler nation that the steelers don't rebuild, they reload. It sure looks like that, about every third year.

Glad to see someone else has made this observation. This is something that I've thought about myself. But the conclusion I've reached is that at most it's an interesting trend which, while seemingly consistent, doesn't necessarily mean too much. I'm willing to bet that as this team continues to get younger this pattern will be drawn out to four or five years for a while, as oppossed to three.

43Hitman

12-13-2012, 05:36 AM

No? Then how about this. tl;dr version at bottom. . .

1. I created a random number generator in excel to generate numbers between 0 (bad season) and 1 (good season).

2. I then created 11,232 series of 12 seasons (each 0 and 1 from the random number generator).

3. After that, I split each series of twelve seasons into 4 data sets of three numbers each (each series of three representing a win, win, loss cycle).

4. I then counted every series that produced four data sets with 2 good seasons and 1 bad season, or in other words, that represented our 2 good, one bad season cycle over four cycles.

5. I then refreshed the random numbers 300 times, every time checking the percent of 12 season runs that came up with a the 2 + 1 cycle.

6. On average, I could only get the same 2 + 1 cycle over 4 cycles (each set in a series to come up with 2 good and 1 bad seasons) on average, 1.8% to 2% of the time. The highest was 2.3 % That puts it far above the 95% statistically significant rate.

7. In one iteration (i.e. 11,232 series of 12 number), I counted all of the times that a pattern held through all four data sets (2 good seasons, 1 bad; 1 good, 1 bad, 1 good; and 1 bad, two good seasons--as long as the same pattern held through all four sets in the series, I counted it). Only seven times out of 217 2+1 series did a consistent pattern followed throughout all four data sets.

Let's put that last number in perspective. That is 3.2 percent of the time, for all 2+1 series, did the same pattern run throughout all four data sets. There were only an average of 2% of series that even had 2 wins and 1 loss per each data set. Or, as I say below:

tl;dr version: There is a 99.94 percent chance that our 2 wins, 1 loss pattern over 12 years is NOT random and ABSOLUTELY not coincidental. Those are the numbers.

Or, are you going to now argue that this year is a good season?

You've way to much time on your hands Preacher. :lol:

GBMelBlount

12-13-2012, 06:06 AM

43hitman

You've way to much time on your hands Preacher.

:lol:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFEoMO0pc7k

Craic

12-13-2012, 05:22 PM

You've way to much time on your hands Preacher. :lol:

:chuckle: that may be. I just finished with a seminar for the semester and was relaxing. However, the idea that there wasn't "Anything Scientifically logical" about the pattern was too absurd to leave alone.

Steeldude

12-13-2012, 05:53 PM

:chuckle: that may be. I just finished with a seminar for the semester and was relaxing. However, the idea that there wasn't "Anything Scientifically logical" about the pattern was too absurd to leave alone.

So again, are you going to bet all your savings on the Steelers going to the playoffs/SB in 2014?

If the Steelers go to the playoffs this year what happens to your magical pattern?

What happened before 2001? Why aren't you adding those years into the equation? Shouldn't it be the entire history of the Steelers?

IMO, this down year has to do with poor coaching, aging players and injuries, not a pattern.

Craic

12-14-2012, 01:34 AM

So again, are you going to bet all your savings on the Steelers going to the playoffs/SB in 2014?

If the Steelers go to the playoffs this year what happens to your magical pattern?

What happened before 2001? Why aren't you adding those years into the equation? Shouldn't it be the entire history of the Steelers?

IMO, this down year has to do with poor coaching, aging players and injuries, not a pattern.

Let me start by first saying, as I showed below (using, since you claimed it didn't apply, "scientific logic") there's a 99.95 percent chance you're wrong, but hold on to that .05% as long as needed.

Now on to the rest of the post. The PATTERN DIDN'T START until 2001. I mean, seriously, you do understand what a "pattern" is? The question isn't "why aren't you adding in those years" the question is, "what changed coming into that year, or the previous year that may have precipitated that pattern.There's at least four options off the top of my head.

1. New stadium. Not sure if it has anything to do with it. Type of field? Doubt it. But can't throw this out yet.
2. Kevin Colbert became GM in 2000. He's responsible for football decisions. Maybe a pattern's developed due to the way he handles contracts?
3. Moved into UMPC training center in August of 2000. Something to do the field there? Fatiguing of the bodies that builds up over a couple years?
4. A combination of these? Something else thrown into the mix?

So keep deriding instead of engaging. Calling something "Magical," "mysterious mojo," and "superstition," doesn't negate facts, and the FACTS are that the pattern IS NOT REPEATABLE in any credible way that can be ascribed to being random or chance. Thus, there's a reason for it.

What happens if they make the playoffs this year? Nothing. According to you, me, and quite a few others, they don't deserve to make them this year because they are a BAD team. They fall within the 03, 06, 09 category of teams instead of the other categories. What happens if they don't make it next year? Nothing, except that the question I'll be asking is "What broke the cycle."

And that answers the next asinine question and I'm sorry, but it really is asinine. No, of course I won't bet on it, because I don't know what is happening in the Steelers organization to cause it. Since that's the case, I also don't know if they will make a change that unknowningly affects whatever is causing this pattern. It's not voodoo or the gods screwing around with the Steelers. It's a specific set of decisions or a philosophy that came about in 1999-2001 that has affected this team ever since.

Or, is 99.95 percent chance of non-randomness not enough for you? Because it's enough across the entire spectrum of statistical analysis. So... then the question is:

Do YOU think it is some kind of magical, superstitious, mysterious mojo that is making us have a bad season after two good seasons since 2001? Or do you then agree there's a pattern created by decisions/philosophy that appeared in 99-01? Because there aren't any other options - since 99.95% chance of not being random means . . . well, it's NOT random.

Steeldude

12-14-2012, 05:33 AM

Let me start by first saying, as I showed below (using, since you claimed it didn't apply, "scientific logic") there's a 99.95 percent chance you're wrong, but hold on to that .05% as long as needed.

Now on to the rest of the post. The PATTERN DIDN'T START until 2001. I mean, seriously, you do understand what a "pattern" is? The question isn't "why aren't you adding in those years" the question is, "what changed coming into that year, or the previous year that may have precipitated that pattern.There's at least four options off the top of my head.

1. New stadium. Not sure if it has anything to do with it. Type of field? Doubt it. But can't throw this out yet.
2. Kevin Colbert became GM in 2000. He's responsible for football decisions. Maybe a pattern's developed due to the way he handles contracts?
3. Moved into UMPC training center in August of 2000. Something to do the field there? Fatiguing of the bodies that builds up over a couple years?
4. A combination of these? Something else thrown into the mix?

So keep deriding instead of engaging. Calling something "Magical," "mysterious mojo," and "superstition," doesn't negate facts, and the FACTS are that the pattern IS NOT REPEATABLE in any credible way that can be ascribed to being random or chance. Thus, there's a reason for it.

What happens if they make the playoffs this year? Nothing. According to you, me, and quite a few others, they don't deserve to make them this year because they are a BAD team. They fall within the 03, 06, 09 category of teams instead of the other categories. What happens if they don't make it next year? Nothing, except that the question I'll be asking is "What broke the cycle."

And that answers the next asinine question and I'm sorry, but it really is asinine. No, of course I won't bet on it, because I don't know what is happening in the Steelers organization to cause it. Since that's the case, I also don't know if they will make a change that unknowningly affects whatever is causing this pattern. It's not voodoo or the gods screwing around with the Steelers. It's a specific set of decisions or a philosophy that came about in 1999-2001 that has affected this team ever since.

Or, is 99.95 percent chance of non-randomness not enough for you? Because it's enough across the entire spectrum of statistical analysis. So... then the question is:

Do YOU think it is some kind of magical, superstitious, mysterious mojo that is making us have a bad season after two good seasons since 2001? Or do you then agree there's a pattern created by decisions/philosophy that appeared in 99-01? Because there aren't any other options - since 99.95% chance of not being random means . . . well, it's NOT random.

Injuries, age, fatigue, schedules, penalties, weather, players, coaches, retirement, even luck etc... all play a role. It's just football. You win some and you lose some.

Or, is 99.95 percent chance of non-randomness not enough for you

Well if there is absolutely no way it could be anything other than 99.95% then I would definitely bet. Those are unreal odds.

I wouldn't say the Steelers are a bad team this year, but I won't say they are a good team.

86WARD

12-14-2012, 11:33 AM

Some people just take things too literally anymore...lol. Lighten up.

Craic

12-14-2012, 03:42 PM

Injuries, age, fatigue, schedules, penalties, weather, players, coaches, retirement, even luck etc... all play a role. It's just football. You win some and you lose some.
Yes, but the pattern of HOW you win some and lose some is what we're talking about here.

Well if there is absolutely no way it could be anything other than 99.95% then I would definitely bet. Those are unreal odds.
NO, they're not odds at all. That's what, I think, the misunderstanding may be. It is not a predictor for the future. It's the percent of confidence that the already established pattern was not random or chance. Like I said, whatever is causing the pattern may never be identified, and also may be changed tomorrow.

My point here, is that we are stuck in the pattern right now, and I want to know why it keeps happening. Because as soon as we know why, then it can be changed.

I wouldn't say the Steelers are a bad team this year, but I won't say they are a good team.
Which puts them as average, right? That puts them square in the 03, 06, 09 camp. All of those teams were average (Well, 03 was below average). Matter of fact, if you look a little deeper into the pattern, in all the off years, the team has been getting better. It serves to believe then, that this year the team would be better than the 09 team. I wonder if you think they are. I'm not sure.

Pristas

12-14-2012, 04:04 PM

Seems to me that this team just runs like other teams. It has peaks and valleys. The good news is that it runs only a 3 year cycle. We tend to get hot, get medium hot, then go medium before returning to hot. Imagine being the Browns. They are in a deep 10 year valley or worse. At least our organization makes the needed adjustments to bring us back to hot.

86WARD

12-15-2012, 07:50 AM

The valleys aren't that deep either...which is a good thing.

GBMelBlount

12-15-2012, 09:16 AM

So apparently if someone wins the lottery twice it is not coincidence....

Craic

12-15-2012, 12:11 PM

So apparently if someone wins the lottery twice it is not coincidence....
Seriously, has reading comprehension escaped this board?

The valleys aren't that deep either...which is a good thing.

I remember someone saying we don't rebuild, we reload. That philosophy beyond everything else just may be at the heart of it.