Unskewing the Polls

[suitanim]

Very interesting. Long story short, either through bias or incompetence, the liberal media is skewing the polls, essentially weighting the polls more by more heavily sampling Democrats. This is based on the assumption that they will turn out in the same numbers as 2008, which isn't going to happen. For instance, take the youth vote. It was at it's highest percentage voting since the election age was lowered back in (IIRC) 1972. Kids vote (D), and those numbers are not going to happen again.

Anyway, when you pull out the skewing, the polls are between even and Romney actually winning. Here is an example from a Washington Post/ABC poll. This poll showed that Obama and Romney are tied at 47%, BUT read this:

In this survey (http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/07/10/National-Politics/Polling/release_102.xml?uuid=nlO1bMpDEeGNIUXuYXpxKg), the sampling is based on only 24 percent responding as Republicans, while Democrats were 33 percent, Independents were 36 and the remaining 7 percent responded otherwise. No serious observer of American politics or pollster believes that Republicans make up only 24 percent of the population. Is it precisely this under-sampling of Republicans, and proportional over-sampling of Democrats, that skews this survey.

When the above poll was "unskewed", it found that Romney actually LED 50-43%.

Don't believe everything the pop media and the Romney haters tell you.

http://unskewedpolls.com/

[zulater]

This election can still go either way. Naysayers be damned, this election wont be decided until the wee hours of the morning and Romney's got a helluva shot to win if he holds his own in the debates.

[suitanim]

I just cannot for the life of my envision the kind of D turnout we saw 4 years ago. People just aren't that enthused for this loser in the White House.

[suitanim]

More on this from Pat Caddell, who is NOT a conservative, and has worked on the campaigns for McGovern, Carter, Gary Hart, Joe Biden and Jerry Brown...basically he's calling out the utter corruption in the media:

http://www.aim.org/video/pat-caddell-the-audacity-of-corruption/
But the bias, the polling, it’s very complicated. Some of it is error, some of it is miscalculation, but some of it is deliberate, in my opinion—to pump up the numbers using 2008 base to give a sense of momentum to the Obama campaign. When I have polls that have the preference of Democrats over Republicans higher than it was in 2008, which was a peak Democratic year, I know I am dealing with a poll that shouldn’t be reported. And yet they are being done, and they are being done with that knowledge and with that basis for some people, and the answer, as I said, some of it is incompetence, some of it is they just don’t know, really know, how to handle it, and some of it is on purpose, and it’s purposeful.

[The Patriot]

It doesn't make sense to me why all these polls would deliberately skew their results, especially when the difference is a 10% swing. I don't see how lying to Democrats that they're winning would influence more of them to vote than telling them that they're losing. And even if these skewed polls concievably gave Democrats the advantage, the election results would tremendously hurt the reputation of the polls. Republican campaigns have their own independent polls too.

[suitanim]

It doesn't make sense to me why all these polls would deliberately skew their results, especially when the difference is a 10% swing. I don't see how lying to Democrats that they're winning would influence more of them to vote than telling them that they're losing. And even if these skewed polls concievably gave Democrats the advantage, the election results would tremendously hurt the reputation of the polls. Republican campaigns have their own independent polls too.

Obviously you didn't visit the site or spend any time there. The goal is to tell Republicans the election is already over to try and keep them away from the polls. The reason I think Romney could still win by 5-7% is that while the Democrats energized their base during the last cycle with record numbers of young, first time voters and minorities coming out in droves to vote, the same could happen in reverse this time, NOT so much because conservatives love Romney rather they hate Obama's myriad and constant failure worse...

[fansince'76]

And we've officially sunk to a new low...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68q28r7m_FU

[suitanim]

And we've officially sunk to a new low...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68q28r7m_FU

Bwahahahahahaha! Paid for by one of the most superfluous, greedy and unnecessary unions of all, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. All their votes are already bought and sold by the Democratic Party.

[suitanim]

I love the internet. Turns out Romney took a turn as a trash collector for one day as Governor of Massachusetts. This is what he had to say about it:

“During my campaign for governor, I decided to spend a day every few weeks doing the jobs of other people in Massachusetts. Among other jobs, I cooked sausages at Fenway Park, worked on asphalt paving crew, stacked bales of hay on a farm, volunteered in an emergency room, served food at a nursing home, and worked as a child-care assistant. I’m often asked which was the hardest job – it’s child care, by a mile.”

“One day I gathered trash as a garbage collector. I stood on that little platform at the back of the truck, holding on as the driver navigated his way through the narrow streets of Boston. As we pulled up to traffic lights, I noticed that the shoppers and businesspeople who were standing only a few feet from me didn’t even see me. It was as if I was invisible. Perhaps it was because a lot of us don’t think garbage men are worthy of notice; I disagree – anyone who works that hard deserves our respect. – I wasn’t a particularly good garbage collector: at one point, after filling the trough at the back of the truck, I pulled the wrong hydraulic lever. Instead of pushing the load into the truck, I dumped it onto the street. Maybe the suits didn’t notice me, but the guys at the construction site sure did…” (251) [All emphasis added]

[st33lersguy]

Dick Morris and Karl Rove have already explained skewed polling on the O' Reilly Factor

[suitanim]

Dick Morris and Karl Rove have already explained skewed polling on the O' Reilly Factor

What about the rest of us who don't watch pop media news? It sounds like you're dismissing this MUCH MORE IN-DEPTH website full of information because everything has already been said about it already by two people on one show.

[st33lersguy]

What about the rest of us who don't watch pop media news? It sounds like you're dismissing this MUCH MORE IN-DEPTH website full of information because everything has already been said about it already by two people on one show.

I am just noting that I saw it on a news station, I am not dismissing anything. Relax bro.

[The Patriot]

Obviously you didn't visit the site or spend any time there. The goal is to tell Republicans the election is already over to try and keep them away from the polls. The reason I think Romney could still win by 5-7% is that while the Democrats energized their base during the last cycle with record numbers of young, first time voters and minorities coming out in droves to vote, the same could happen in reverse this time, NOT so much because conservatives love Romney rather they hate Obama's myriad and constant failure worse...

So Romney has a comfortable lead then? You guys must be pretty relieved.

[GBMelBlount]

It doesn't make sense to me why all these polls would deliberately skew their results, especially when the difference is a 10% swing. I don't see how lying to Democrats that they're winning would influence more of them to vote than telling them that they're losing. And even if these skewed polls concievably gave Democrats the advantage, the election results would tremendously hurt the reputation of the polls. Republican campaigns have their own independent polls too.

It could just as easily lower republican and conservative turnout and also in increase the likelihood of effbots and many of their their libertarian kin wasting their vote thinking it will not matter.

[GoSlash27]

I hear this sort of thing every 4 years. "The polls are skewed!"
/except they never turn out to be...

[Count Steeler]

Don't make the mistake to think that others are impassioned about politics as you are. What message has been delivered by the media to the masses? Obama is good, just needs more time to fix things. End of story for most and they will re-elect the current sitting president for another term.

[ALLD]

The Dems pump up the hype to keep the donations rolling in. Nobody wants to back a loser $.

[suitanim]

The bottom line is, the numbers don't add up. There are 55 million registered GOP out of about 200 million registered voters. Those numbers right there along show a skew. Even if suggesting that NO Independents vote Republican (which is preposterous), 24% is under-representing the GOP vote by about 3.5%.

Anyway, the false media meme being spoonfed and lapped up by the less astute is that this election is already over. I call bullshit.