suitanim
09-05-2012, 04:33 PM
Forget all the hype. The polls. The pundits talking wonky trends and such. This election comes down to very simple math.
Take 75% of the electorate and times it by 62. It equals 46.50.
Take 25% of the electorate and times it by 20. It equals 5.00.
46.5 + 5 = 51.5%
For the last time ever, the GOP only really needs to court the white vote. They need 62% of the white vote to win. The electorate breaks out at about 75% white, 25% minority. McCain (who was outspent by a wide margin) only won 55% of the white vote. That pretty much explains his deficit to Obama. Romney will get about 20% of the minority vote, and that makes up 25% or so of the electorate. IF he makes some inroads with Jews and Latino's, it's possible he may only need 60% of the white vote. Maybe not, though...
So you will see over these last couple months a GOP platform that features "The takers versus the makers". The GOP (and I want to emphasize this....it's the last time they will EVER do this, because the demographics are changing too rapidly) will work the white vote like they haven't in a long time. They will play up not that Obama hates the rich, rather that he favors the poor over the Middle Class. The class warfare Obama started may actually be his undoing but for different reasons than he might have suspected. Only 37-38% of whites favor Obama now. Unless Romney gets caught with a dead girl or a live boy, that's unlikely to change much. The numbers are there...I'm pretty close to saying that this is Romney's to lose.
We shall see...I need to see polling after the first debate on Oct 3rd. Romney is already working on hos debating strategy, and he just went through 150 (seemingly) GOP primary debates. He should be sharp and ready. Again, we shall see...
Take 75% of the electorate and times it by 62. It equals 46.50.
Take 25% of the electorate and times it by 20. It equals 5.00.
46.5 + 5 = 51.5%
For the last time ever, the GOP only really needs to court the white vote. They need 62% of the white vote to win. The electorate breaks out at about 75% white, 25% minority. McCain (who was outspent by a wide margin) only won 55% of the white vote. That pretty much explains his deficit to Obama. Romney will get about 20% of the minority vote, and that makes up 25% or so of the electorate. IF he makes some inroads with Jews and Latino's, it's possible he may only need 60% of the white vote. Maybe not, though...
So you will see over these last couple months a GOP platform that features "The takers versus the makers". The GOP (and I want to emphasize this....it's the last time they will EVER do this, because the demographics are changing too rapidly) will work the white vote like they haven't in a long time. They will play up not that Obama hates the rich, rather that he favors the poor over the Middle Class. The class warfare Obama started may actually be his undoing but for different reasons than he might have suspected. Only 37-38% of whites favor Obama now. Unless Romney gets caught with a dead girl or a live boy, that's unlikely to change much. The numbers are there...I'm pretty close to saying that this is Romney's to lose.
We shall see...I need to see polling after the first debate on Oct 3rd. Romney is already working on hos debating strategy, and he just went through 150 (seemingly) GOP primary debates. He should be sharp and ready. Again, we shall see...