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Galax Steeler
02-12-2012, 09:26 AM
Overrated:

1. Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (6-1/215/4.54) - Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

2. LSU DT Michael Brockers (6-5/306/4.95) - A handful of draftnik types named Brockers the 2012 class' top defensive tackle as soon as he declared as a redshirt sophomore. I just don't see it. Brockers plays young and raw, meaning he does not effectively use his length to create leverage or separation. Brockers faced constant single blocks as part of a vaunted LSU front, but showed little burst or quickness to beat guards, rather grinding out his limited QB pressures with sheer leg drive. Brockers has a strong lower half to anchor versus the run, but plays high off the snap and fails to use his arms or hands. To invest a top-20 selection on a player whose lone strength is upside, I'd at least want him to "flash" somewhat regularly. Brockers rarely does that.

3. Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict (6-2/250/4.67) - Burfict is a physical specimen with great closing speed when stalking running backs. He can end plays with crushing hits. Burfict obviously possesses athleticism and power for the Mike linebacker position, but he is lacking in every other category. Burfict is consistently taken completely out of plays by his own accord, standing still while the play develops and making himself an easy target for linemen to hit at the second level. Even when Burfict does read and react, many times it is to the wrong spot, especially with misdirection. He does not play instinctively. Burfict is forceful, which is great if he's tackling a running back after going unblocked, but he struggles to fight through trash after first contact. One of the nation's top prep recruits in 2009, Burfict's game developed little in three seasons at Arizona State, despite plenty of playing time. Even disregarding his character concerns, I have Burfict rated behind four other inside linebacker prospects.

4. South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery (6-3/229/4.63) - Simply put, Jeffery cannot separate. This was clear in his bowl game effort against Nebraska's Alfonzo Dennard, who repeatedly jammed Jeffery at the line of scrimmage. Dennard completely overmatched Jeffery downfield, as the receiver created no space against Nebraska's physical corner despite the Cornhuskers' tendency to give South Carolina's quarterback more than seven seconds to throw. Jeffery does not use his large frame effectively, either. Plenty of slow receivers make a living converting catches in traffic, but Jeffery loses way too many 50/50 balls for that to be the foundation of his game. Receivers with limited separation skills require confident, accurate quarterbacks willing to take chances in tight windows. 20 teams or more are without that kind of QB. Jeffery is the eighth best receiver in the draft, and a massive risk as a first-round pick.

5. Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler (6-7/240/4.83) - For a tall quarterback, Osweiler is fairly coordinated and stands well in the pocket, only scrambling at appropriate times. All of his problems begin with an unreliable release. Osweiler is 6'7", but his inconsistent release point is equal to a 6'3" passer. Osweiler lacks a consistent motion, even side-arming some throws, which leads to unpredictable accuracy. He rarely leads his receivers in full stride. Just because Osweiler is a big quarterback does not mean he has a big arm; in fact, his velocity is adequate at best. Above all, Osweiler's accuracy and ball placement are some of the worst in this class. The one-year starter should have returned for more seasoning. Osweiler is not worth more than a third-day pick, despite some talk of him cracking the late first. Erratic is an understatement.

6. Illinois DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus (6-3/265/4.68) - The nation's leader with 16 sacks, Mercilus' talent does not equal his production. He lacks a great first step and has minimal explosion off the edge. Mercilus is only adequate in many areas: hand use, length to separate, strength at the point of attack, and athleticism to bend the corner. Many of his sacks started with quick inside moves against heavy-footed linemen, or catching a scrambling QB out of the pocket. I will certainly credit Mercilus for his on-field awareness, as he consistently holds his edge assignment and effectively flows down the line. Mercilus also chases plays to the sideline, exhibiting a persistent style that will attract 3-4 teams. He will benefit from a shallow pass-rushing class.

7. Ohio State OT Mike Adams (6-7/323/5.28) - Despite a massive frame and attractive athleticism, Adams had a maddeningly inconsistent Senior Bowl week that highlighted the same ups and downs he showed at Ohio State. Adams' posture is high off the snap, and he allows far too many defenders' quick inside moves to go untouched during his initial drop step. Even when Adams plants and anchors his lower body effectively, his upper half lacks power to redirect or finish blocks. His repeated offenses are worrisome, as is Adams' medical history (shoulder surgery in '08, knee surgery in '09). I think his lack of quickness and reaction timing will limit him to right tackle, but Adams will probably be over-drafted to protect the blind side.

8. Syracuse DE Chandler Jones (6-5/265/4.78) - In a family that produced MMA Champ Jon Bones Jones and Ravens DE Arthur Jones, Chandler's tape indicates he may have drawn the short straw in terms of his family's athletic gifts. My money is on Jones measuring in with the longest arms at the Combine, and it is the asset he uses with the most success. Jones frequently reaches into passing lanes, showing nice awareness when he cannot get to the quarterback. Unfortunately, that happens quite a bit due to Jones' long first step, which results in a lack of burst off the line. Until Jones is able to immediately use his length to shed the offensive tackle, his upfield momentum will be stoned. Jones does not fare much better against the run, displaying poor technique and often getting hooked. Jones is an uncoordinated-looking prospect and unrefined in his movements. There will be far better options in the top-50 picks.

9. Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy (6-2/310/5.04) - Worthy might look like the draft's top defensive tackle if you evaluate strictly off highlights, but his inconsistent motor shows up over four quarters. Unless Worthy shoots a gap off the snap, he struggles due to high posture and lacks any anchor against the run. He looks to shed quickly in every situation, and a balanced interior offensive lineman with active hands can regularly handle Worthy. He also ends up on the ground far too often, focusing on beating his individual block more than reacting to the play in front of him. I find it hard to believe any team would draft Worthy in the first round. He could be a disruptive rotational tackle, though.

10. Oregon RB LaMichael James (5-9/195/4.42) - James was smart to leave for the pros after his junior season due to a high volume of college carries. He has elite speed, which will immediately help in the return game. But too many of James' big plays on offense involved stretching runs to the sideline or breaking outside, which is significantly harder to do in the NFL. James does not run between the tackles confidently enough to be an NFL featured back. He's also shown his thin frame does not react well to hits. James excels at finding a crease and exhibits pinball-like qualities to pick up yards after contact beyond the line of scrimmage, but after a few hits he tends to abandon his running lane for temporarily open field. James may benefit from the NFL's increased usage of spread-type concepts, but ultimately I think he'll have a Danny Woodhead kind of role and should not be drafted before day three.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39879/60/draft-2012-the-overrated

ShutDown24
02-12-2012, 09:54 AM
I disagree with Blackmon, Adams and - to a point - Osweiler. But the others are spot on with my evaluations.

I didn't see quite as many flaws in Adams' game as you have. He can be inconsistent at times, but no more than any other of the top tackle prospects in my view. The biggest point that you made on this player which I disagree with is that he doesn't finish blocks. I'll go back and take another look at him though, maybe I'm in the wrong. But I don't have that down as a weakness.

Osweiler definitely has all the mechanical flaws that you pointed out. But I align his side armed delivery more with Phil Rivers than Vince Young. I don't think the release is the start of all his problems as you suggest. In fact, at 6'7 - with the arm measurables he seems to have - I believe a traditional release could lead to balls sailing on him too frequently. He seems to have a nice flick of the wrist style delivery off of the throwing motion. Though he does need to improve his accuracy, I think that has more to do with his anticipation as a passer than his release. It's debatable, but I wouldn't necessarily try to change the technique unless it is something the player really wants to alter.

Galax Steeler
02-12-2012, 10:06 AM
I disagree with Blackmon, Adams and - to a point - Osweiler. But the others are spot on with my evaluations.

I didn't see quite as many flaws in Adams' game as you have. He can be inconsistent at times, but no more than any other of the top tackle prospects in my view. The biggest point that you made on this player which I disagree with is that he doesn't finish blocks. I'll go back and take another look at him though, maybe I'm in the wrong. But I don't have that down as a weakness.

Osweiler definitely has all the mechanical flaws that you pointed out. But I align his side armed delivery more with Phil Rivers than Vince Young. I don't think the release is the start of all his problems as you suggest. In fact, at 6'7 - with the arm measurables he seems to have - I believe a traditional release could lead to balls sailing on him too frequently. He seems to have a nice flick of the wrist style delivery off of the throwing motion. Though he does need to improve his accuracy, I think that has more to do with his anticipation as a passer than his release. It's debatable, but I wouldn't necessarily try to change the technique unless it is something the player really wants to alter.

Nice post ShutDown

ShutDown24
02-12-2012, 10:15 AM
Nice post ShutDown

Thanks, the topic is a good one and I think you made valid points on all of the players you determined to be overrated. I especially couldn't agree more with your thoughts on Michael Brockers.

I wanted to add that Osweiler's play reminds me a lot of Mark Sanchez when he was at Southern Cal.

LLT
02-12-2012, 10:49 AM
I love Adams and actually think he may be underrated. I dont even have Brockers in my top 32.

ShutDown24
02-12-2012, 12:15 PM
I love Adams and actually think he may be underrated.

How do you think he stacks up against Kalil/Reiff? Not as far as where he'll be selected, but as a pro.

suitanim
02-13-2012, 05:15 AM
I have watched every Ohio State game for YEARS, and I think Adams problem is inconsistency. He takes plays off and gets lazy. He also has some questionable off-field behavior.

Perhaps he can be motivated with the right coaching at the next level. I just don't know, and therein lies the rub. Is he worth a first? Then again, with the recent runs we've seen on lineman in the draft, he may not even be there...

LLT
02-13-2012, 06:25 AM
How do you think he stacks up against Kalil/Reiff? Not as far as where he'll be selected, but as a pro.

Of the Three...Kalil is the better technician...Reiff is the quickess...and Adams has the better size.

Both Reiff and Adams have had some trouble with the law....and Kalil has limited experience.

I think Adams lack of quickness wont be a factor when dealing with 3-4 DE's but faster 4-3 DE's and rushing LBers will give him some trouble. That being said, I think he is STILL quicker than Starks. I would say that he is a late first round talent that needs to be moved to the right side and will take a bit of coaching on regards to using his hands better. Good bend and anchor but sometimes lets his man get to far into his body.

So far I have been on the mark with Adams...I predicted long ago, when he was judged to be a mid third rounder, that he would rise into the 1st round and that Zebrie Sanders would start slipping out of the first.

ShutDown24
02-13-2012, 09:55 AM
So far I have been on the mark with Adams...I predicted long ago, when he was judged to be a mid third rounder, that he would rise into the 1st round and that Zebrie Sanders would start slipping out of the first.

Sanders is big but has all the movement of a statue.

I agree with you on your assessment of Adams/Kalil/Reiff. I think Reiff has the most upside. Kalil is probably the safest pick but also scares me. When it's all said and done I don't think any of these guys bust.

I tend to think Adams could play the left side with some coaching. You disagree? As it stands he certainly is better off on the right, but I've always thought of him as a legit LT prospect.

Chidi29
02-13-2012, 10:03 AM
I still have to try and look at him a little more but after watching three games of Reiff, I'm not impressed. Does have a smooth kickslide and can mirror but really needs to hit a weight room. Lacks upper body strengths and pops up on contact against the run. Loses the leverage battle a lot, too.

I know he is listed at 6'6 300 but so was Tyron Smith and he was a great run blocker who could lock on and drive. Reiff isn't anywhere close to Smith who went 9th.

El-Gonzo Jackson
02-13-2012, 10:54 AM
I agree with suit on Adams. He looks inconsistent in his technique. I also thought he looks to lack strength in his play and not sure if its willingness or lack of interest, but he doesnt seem to be a good run blocker.

If he has a good attitude, then I think he needs some time in an NFL weight room and add some strength to that frame. Otherwise he is a good athlete, but reminds me of a more lazy Chris Williams from Vanderbilt and now with the Bears.

Texasteel
02-13-2012, 01:43 PM
I don't agree that Adams can not play LT. Is he inconsistant, yes. Can he improve his footwork to handle the outside speed rusher better, yes. Could he increase is stength to handle the bull rush and run blocking, yes. Did he have some off the field problems, yes. If he did not have these flaws would we be talking about him at pick number 24, no, I don't think so. We talking about the 24th pick and not the 16th pick, and even with these flaws we still may not be able to get him at 24. I may have been a little optimisic when I said I thought he could start before the end of the season, but I still think he could.

I for one am getting tired of thinking, "Well we made it through another year at LT, but what will we do next year." We are not going to sign a OT and break the bank, and I certanly hope we will never pick high enough in the draft to grab an almost sure thing. This is why I think Adams very well may be our answer this year.

LLT
02-13-2012, 01:56 PM
I don't agree that Adams can not play LT. Is he inconsistant, yes. Can he improve his footwork to handle the outside speed rusher better, yes. Could he increase is stength to handle the bull rush and run blocking, yes. Did he have some off the field problems, yes. If he did not have these flaws would we be talking about him at pick number 24, no, I don't think so. We talking about the 24th pick and not the 16th pick, and even with these flaws we still may not be able to get him at 24. I may have been a little optimisic when I said I thought he could start before the end of the season, but I still think he could.

I for one am getting tired of thinking, "Well we made it through another year at LT, but what will we do next year." We are not going to sign a OT and break the bank, and I certanly hope we will never pick high enough in the draft to grab an almost sure thing. This is why I think Adams very well may be our answer this year.

I agree that his flaws are not that different then what we heard in regards to Gilbert last year. In fact he has more of an upside then Gilbert, who never was ranked as a first rounder. Gilbert corrected a lot of his flaws on the fly as the season progressed, and I think that Adams can do the same and might actually end up as a better tackle in a year or two.

suitanim
02-13-2012, 02:26 PM
Don't get me wrong: If this kid went full speed every play, he could be a very good LT at the next level. But the intangibles bother me. He's another pothead. He was one of the five kids selling tats for autographs. He's had other issues. He's borderline Steeler-material. And he's an OSU kid, and I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. It's not like there haven't been other super-talented kids selected in the first round to play OT that have ultimately busted out.

I think it comes down to the combine (NOT for the measurables, which I thik are vastly overrated, but the effort and the interviews) and how the Steelers evaluate him as a person and how he fits with our philosophy.

Let's face it, they have had good luck with most of their OSU selections. He could be "next". We will see...

ShutDown24
02-13-2012, 05:13 PM
I still have to try and look at him a little more but after watching three games of Reiff, I'm not impressed. Does have a smooth kickslide and can mirror but really needs to hit a weight room. Lacks upper body strengths and pops up on contact against the run. Loses the leverage battle a lot, too.

I know he is listed at 6'6 300 but so was Tyron Smith and he was a great run blocker who could lock on and drive. Reiff isn't anywhere close to Smith who went 9th.

He is definitely a lot lighter than you want, but would you trade the positive skills you attributed to him for weight? I wouldn't. The muscle addition and conditioning should come easy once he starts an NFL program. I would be more concerned if he was bulky and didn't show the elite quickness that he does.

Chidi29
02-13-2012, 05:16 PM
He is definitely a lot lighter than you want, but would you trade the positive skills you attributed to him for weight? I wouldn't. The muscle addition and conditioning should come easy once he starts an NFL program. I would be more concerned if he was bulky and didn't show the elite quickness that he does.

That's true and it's better for him to lack strength than quickness. Still, there are plenty of other tackles who offer the complete package already who I'd take ahead of Reiff.

ShutDown24
02-13-2012, 05:42 PM
That's true and it's better for him to lack strength than quickness. Still, there are plenty of other tackles who offer the complete package already who I'd take ahead of Reiff.

Really? I don't see a "complete" tackle on the board this year. I know a lot of people think Kalil is that guy, but I definitely disagree with that. I'm not trying to bombard you with Reiff propaganda, I just don't see a player at that position I would take ahead of him. I'm curious who you prefer to him.

Chidi29
02-13-2012, 09:41 PM
Really? I don't see a "complete" tackle on the board this year. I know a lot of people think Kalil is that guy, but I definitely disagree with that. I'm not trying to bombard you with Reiff propaganda, I just don't see a player at that position I would take ahead of him. I'm curious who you prefer to him.

Cordy Glenn, Kelechie Osemele, and probably Jeff Allen at this point. Mike Adams is another possible guy, too along with Kalil.

SteelMember
02-14-2012, 08:45 AM
Cordy Glenn, Kelechie Osemele, and probably Jeff Allen at this point. Mike Adams is another possible guy, too along with Kalil.

I think you may be over rating Glenn and Osemele if we're talking OT's. They are thought by many to only be OG prospects. Jeff Allen, while he might be a good mid-round value, he is far from the "complete package" label you are putting on him.

ShutDown24
02-14-2012, 11:11 AM
Cordy Glenn, Kelechie Osemele, and probably Jeff Allen at this point. Mike Adams is another possible guy, too along with Kalil.


I think you may be over rating Glenn and Osemele if we're talking OT's. They are thought by many to only be OG prospects. Jeff Allen, while he might be a good mid-round value, he is far from the "complete package" label you are putting on him.

I think I would have to agree with SteelMember.

I can buy the Glenn argument a little bit, but I don't think Osemele has near the potential Reiff does. And I'm shocked you mentioned Allen.

ShutDown24
02-14-2012, 11:13 AM
I don't agree that Adams can not play LT. Is he inconsistant, yes. Can he improve his footwork to handle the outside speed rusher better, yes. Could he increase is stength to handle the bull rush and run blocking, yes. Did he have some off the field problems, yes. If he did not have these flaws would we be talking about him at pick number 24, no, I don't think so. We talking about the 24th pick and not the 16th pick, and even with these flaws we still may not be able to get him at 24. I may have been a little optimisic when I said I thought he could start before the end of the season, but I still think he could.

I for one am getting tired of thinking, "Well we made it through another year at LT, but what will we do next year." We are not going to sign a OT and break the bank, and I certanly hope we will never pick high enough in the draft to grab an almost sure thing. This is why I think Adams very well may be our answer this year.

I support your view that Adams can play LT.

And I'm starting to agree with you, reluctantly, that if Adams is still available at 24 the Steelers should take him. But I have a hard time envisioning him being available.

SteelMember
02-14-2012, 11:30 AM
I can buy the Glenn argument a little bit, but I don't think Osemele has near the potential Reiff does. And I'm shocked you mentioned Allen.
While it's true Glenn did play a few games at tackle for UGA (at R and L), I believe it was similar to our situation with injuries. Guys like Sturdivant, a talented guy who has been practically out with injuries for most of his college career, needed to be replaced. Even after this need, he was eventually moved inside to guard to finish up the year.

and ShutDown, Mike Mayock shares your ranking of Reiff over Kalil. He may be the only one though. :chuckle:

I'd take him in a heartbeat.

Chidi29
02-14-2012, 11:52 AM
I think I would have to agree with SteelMember.

I can buy the Glenn argument a little bit, but I don't think Osemele has near the potential Reiff does. And I'm shocked you mentioned Allen.

Osemele is a big guy but he moves really well. And you're getting the dominant run blocking in him. He may not be capable of playing LT like Reiff and won't have that top ten value, but just judging them as tackles, Osemele is better.

I've only seen Allen once but came away impressed. Moreso than Reiff.

ShutDown24
02-14-2012, 12:02 PM
and ShutDown, Mike Mayock shares your ranking of Reiff over Kalil. He may be the only one though. :chuckle:.

Really? Ugh. I can't escape Mayock. It seems like everytime I make an evaluation that is against the grain someone tells me Mayock has the same view. When Mendenahll came out I had him as the best back in the draft. Mayock did too. That one really got under my skin. I mean, I guess it's not a bad thing that someone with the experience of Mayock agrees with you. I just feel like I can't get away from him, specifically - which is annoying.

ShutDown24
02-14-2012, 12:12 PM
Osemele is a big guy but he moves really well. And you're getting the dominant run blocking in him. He may not be capable of playing LT like Reiff and won't have that top ten value, but just judging them as tackles, Osemele is better.

Oh, for sure. As it stands, Osemele is much better on the right side than Reiff. But he is far from the "complete package". And if I have a chance to take either player straight up; there is no question I take Reiff. One is much better suited for RT and the other LT - but at the end of the day, LT is much more valuable a position.

Chidi29
02-14-2012, 12:24 PM
Oh, for sure. As it stands, Osemele is much better on the right side than Reiff. But he is far from the "complete package". And if I have a chance to take either player straight up; there is no question I take Reiff. One is much better suited for RT and the other LT - but at the end of the day, LT is much more valuable a position.

Perhaps I should have clarified more. They're more of the complete package than Reiff. And I know he can hit the weight room, but it's harder to hide a lineman that can't run block than one who struggles in pass protection.

ShutDown24
02-15-2012, 12:57 AM
Perhaps I should have clarified more. They're more of the complete package than Reiff. And I know he can hit the weight room, but it's harder to hide a lineman that can't run block than one who struggles in pass protection.

Maybe Osemele/Glenn can pass protect better than Reiff can run block, I just struggle with the concept of taking either player - and especially Allen - over Reiff.