Chidi29
10-26-2011, 01:55 PM
I glanced at some numbers the other day and the results were a bit surprising. After invesitgating further, the final numbers are strong evidence that getting pressure on Brady that will lead to him crumbling isn't as clear-cut as some make it out to be.
Disclaimer: I realize these are just stats and aren't the say-all, end-all. You'll notice that I am only able to use sacks and not pressure. I could use QB hits if I really wanted to, but that would be putting in a ton of work that I don't have the time for. Coming into the study, I realize that pressure doesn't always result in sacks and that getting a few sacks doesn't mean your defense got consistent pressure.
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I broke down Brady's numbers in the past three years into two categories. Games where he was sacked more than his seasonal regular season average and ones tat he wasn't.
2009. He was sacked an average of one time a game so the games I looked at were the ones in which he was sacked twice or more.
27-21 W – 21/32 258 yds 8.1 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
59-0 W – 29/34 380 yds 11.2 Y/A 6 TD 0 INT – 2 sacks
27-17 W – 25/37 332 yds 9.0 Y/A 1 TD 1 INT – 2 sacks
35-34 L – 29/42 375 yds 8.9 Y/A 3 TD 1 INT – 2 sacks
31-14 W – 28/41 310 yds 7.6 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 2 sacks
Total: 4-1 – 132/186 1655 yds (331 per) 8.9 Y/A 12 TD 2 INT
Compared to games where he was sacked once or less.
6-5 – 239/379 2743 yds (249 per) 7.2 Y/A 16 TD 11 INT
2010. Sacked an average of 1.6 times per game.
41-14 W – 19/24 153 yds 6.4 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
23-20 W – 27/44 292 yds 6.6 Y/A 1 TD 2 INT – 3 sacks
23-20 W – 19/32 159 yds 5.0 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 4 sacks
45-3 W – 21/29 326 yds 11.2 Y/A 4 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
36-7 W – 27/40 369 yds 9.2 Y/A 2 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
31-27 W – 15/24 163 yds 6.8 Y/A 2 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
Total: 6-0 – 128/193 1462 yds (244 per) 7.6 Y/A 11 TD 2 INT
Other games: 8-2 – 196/299 2438 yds (244 per) 8.2 Y/A 25 TD 2 INT
2011. So far, sacked an average of 1.8 sacks.
35-21 W – 31/40 423 yds 10.6 Y/A 3 TD 0 INT – 2 sacks
30-21 W – 24/33 321 yds 9.7 Y/A 1 TD 1 INT – 4 sacks
20-16 W – 27/41 289 yds 7.0 Y/A 2 TD 2 INT – 3 sacks
Total: 3-0 W – 82/114 1033 yds (344 per) 9.1 Y/A 6 TD 3 INT
Other: 2-1 – 78/123 1130 yds (377 per) 10 TD 5 INT
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And your FINAL numbers over the past two and a half years.
Sacked more than average: 13-1 – 342/493 69.4% 4150 yds (296 per) 8.4 Y/A 29 TD 7 INT
Sacked on average or less than average - 16 – 8 – 513/801 64% 6311 yds (263 per) 7.9 Y/A 51 TD 18 INT
Conclusions:
Brady has only lost one game during this time under this criteria, a 35-34 loss to the Colts in 2009.
His completion percentage, yards per game, and Y/A are all higher in the sacked more than average games than the others. He is also averaging less INTs per attempt (70.5 per INT compared to 44.5 in games sacked less). The only category he is doing better in when sacked less than average is TDs per attempt, and that margin is only slight (15.5 to 17).
Of cuorse, getting pressure on a QB is important and getting to him is obviously going to help. But it isn't as effective as you think and if we blitz, he's likely to pick us apart on underneath routes and hot reads.
Disclaimer: I realize these are just stats and aren't the say-all, end-all. You'll notice that I am only able to use sacks and not pressure. I could use QB hits if I really wanted to, but that would be putting in a ton of work that I don't have the time for. Coming into the study, I realize that pressure doesn't always result in sacks and that getting a few sacks doesn't mean your defense got consistent pressure.
----------------
I broke down Brady's numbers in the past three years into two categories. Games where he was sacked more than his seasonal regular season average and ones tat he wasn't.
2009. He was sacked an average of one time a game so the games I looked at were the ones in which he was sacked twice or more.
27-21 W – 21/32 258 yds 8.1 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
59-0 W – 29/34 380 yds 11.2 Y/A 6 TD 0 INT – 2 sacks
27-17 W – 25/37 332 yds 9.0 Y/A 1 TD 1 INT – 2 sacks
35-34 L – 29/42 375 yds 8.9 Y/A 3 TD 1 INT – 2 sacks
31-14 W – 28/41 310 yds 7.6 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 2 sacks
Total: 4-1 – 132/186 1655 yds (331 per) 8.9 Y/A 12 TD 2 INT
Compared to games where he was sacked once or less.
6-5 – 239/379 2743 yds (249 per) 7.2 Y/A 16 TD 11 INT
2010. Sacked an average of 1.6 times per game.
41-14 W – 19/24 153 yds 6.4 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
23-20 W – 27/44 292 yds 6.6 Y/A 1 TD 2 INT – 3 sacks
23-20 W – 19/32 159 yds 5.0 Y/A 1 TD 0 INT – 4 sacks
45-3 W – 21/29 326 yds 11.2 Y/A 4 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
36-7 W – 27/40 369 yds 9.2 Y/A 2 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
31-27 W – 15/24 163 yds 6.8 Y/A 2 TD 0 INT – 3 sacks
Total: 6-0 – 128/193 1462 yds (244 per) 7.6 Y/A 11 TD 2 INT
Other games: 8-2 – 196/299 2438 yds (244 per) 8.2 Y/A 25 TD 2 INT
2011. So far, sacked an average of 1.8 sacks.
35-21 W – 31/40 423 yds 10.6 Y/A 3 TD 0 INT – 2 sacks
30-21 W – 24/33 321 yds 9.7 Y/A 1 TD 1 INT – 4 sacks
20-16 W – 27/41 289 yds 7.0 Y/A 2 TD 2 INT – 3 sacks
Total: 3-0 W – 82/114 1033 yds (344 per) 9.1 Y/A 6 TD 3 INT
Other: 2-1 – 78/123 1130 yds (377 per) 10 TD 5 INT
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And your FINAL numbers over the past two and a half years.
Sacked more than average: 13-1 – 342/493 69.4% 4150 yds (296 per) 8.4 Y/A 29 TD 7 INT
Sacked on average or less than average - 16 – 8 – 513/801 64% 6311 yds (263 per) 7.9 Y/A 51 TD 18 INT
Conclusions:
Brady has only lost one game during this time under this criteria, a 35-34 loss to the Colts in 2009.
His completion percentage, yards per game, and Y/A are all higher in the sacked more than average games than the others. He is also averaging less INTs per attempt (70.5 per INT compared to 44.5 in games sacked less). The only category he is doing better in when sacked less than average is TDs per attempt, and that margin is only slight (15.5 to 17).
Of cuorse, getting pressure on a QB is important and getting to him is obviously going to help. But it isn't as effective as you think and if we blitz, he's likely to pick us apart on underneath routes and hot reads.